Author: Andy Bergeron (andybergeron2023@u.northwestern.edu), Weinberg

After his hot start in 2020, the national media and fans raised the point that Russell Wilson has never received an MVP vote, and decided to start the narrative that it was his destiny to end the drought this season. The Twitter fans and media backed this up by spreading the slogan “Let Russ Cook,” which Wilson eventually trademarked in early November. So did Wilson deserve MVP votes in the past? And will he finally earn one this season? Let’s examine both of these questions.

In 2015, Russell Wilson led the league passer rating and recorded his first 4000 passing yard season en route to a wild card playoff berth. That same year, NFL MVP Cam Newton led his Carolina Panthers to a league best 15-1 record. 

2015 Russell Wilson: 4024 passing yards, 24 TDs, 8 Int, 103 carries, 553 yards, 1 TD

2015 Cam Newton: 3837 passing yards, 35 TDs, 10 Int, 132 carries, 636 yards, 10 TDs

While Wilson’s passing and rushing numbers are not too far off of Newton’s, he had 20 less total touchdowns, making his case for MVP very difficult. With 48 out of 50 votes, Newton was a near unanimous choice. And while those two voters could have voted for Wilson (instead of Caron Palmer and Tom Brady), did Wilson deserve the two votes? No, Cam Newton did. 

Following a down year in 2016, Russell Wilson responded by leading the league in passing touchdowns in 2017. However, Tom Brady walked away with the award. 

2017 Russell Wilson: 3983 passing yards, 34 TDs, 11 Int, 95 carries, 586 yards, 3 TDs

2017 Tom Brady:  4577 passing yards, 32 TDs, 8 Int

With numbers very relatively close in passing, plus a decisive advantage in rushing over Brady, perhaps Wilson deserved an MVP vote. However, Brady’s team finished as the top seed in the AFC while Wilson’s missed the playoffs. While wins are not always an accurate reflection of a quarterback’s performance, historically, the NFL MVP will find a way to get his team into the playoffs. Aside from Brady’s 40 votes, Todd Gurley and his division-winning Rams earned 8 votes, while Carson Wentz grabbed the other 2 after a dominant 13 games before a season-ending injury. So once again, did Wilson deserve an MVP vote? No. 

To follow up his strong 2017 season, Russell Wilson threw more touchdowns and less interceptions the following year in 2018. However, Wilson threw for substantially less yards. Here are his numbers compared to those of the winner:

2018 Russell Wilson: 3448 passing yards, 35 TDs, 7 Int, 67 carries, 376 yards, 0 TDs

2018 Patrick Mahomes: 5097 passing yards, 50 TDs, 12 Int

Despite Wilson having thrown fewer interceptions, the 2018 NFL MVP clearly belonged to Patrick Mahomes after throwing for what was the 8th most passing yards in a single season as well as the 2nd most passing touchdowns in a single season. Mahomes received 41 out of the 50 MVP votes, but the point still remains: Russell Wilson did not deserve an MVP vote in 2018. 

Moving forward to 2019, Wilson’s performance was more or less the same as it had been in the previous two seasons. Regardless, here are his numbers next to the winners:

2019 Russell Wilson: 4110 passing yards, 31 TDs, 5 Int, 75 carries, 342 yards, 3 TDs

2019 Lamar Jackson: 3127 passing yards, 36 TDs, 6 Int, 176 carries, 1206 yards, 7 TDs 

Despite Wilson throwing for more passing yards, Lamar Jackson’s 2019 campaign was one of the most electric in recent memory and absolutely worthy of unanimously winning the award. So to clarify, did Russell Wilson deserve an MVP vote in 2019? No.

So after all those years, we are now in 2020. Let’s compare the following four game splits. 

Player A: 938 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 3 Int

Player B: 1218 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 2 Int

Player C: 1227 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 4 Int

Player D: 872 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 0 Int 

Player B certainly looks like the best with clearly the most touchdowns and very close to the most yards. Player D is interesting because they have a lot of touchdowns but the least yards. Players A and C have similar touchdown and interception stat lines but C has many more passing yards. So who are these players?

Player A is Russell Wilson’s last four games.

Player B is Kirk Cousins’ last four games.

Player C is Jared Goff’s last four games. 

And lastly, Player D is Patrick Mahomes’ four games with the fewest passing yard totals. 

So what does this tell us? Well Russell Wilson in the last month has not been as good as two quarterbacks who are both considered to be overrated. Comparatively, Wilson has been far inferior to Patrick Mahomes. To finish off, let’s look at Wilson’s stats next to Mahomes for the current season through 13 weeks. 

2020 Wilson: 3479 passing yards, 32 TDs, 11 Int

2020 Mahomes: 3815 passing yards, 31 TDs, 2 Int 

Russell Wilson would need to make a large run to catch Mahomes in passing yards, and Mahomes would need to throw quite a few interceptions over the final four games to match Wilson’s total. Meanwhile, Mahomes’ team is 11-1 and cruising through the regular season while Wilson’s is 8-4 and still has the division in question. 

So what would it take for Russell Wilson to steal a couple MVP votes from Patrick Mahomes? It would probably start with a 4-0 finish and a division title, along with no more interceptions, and keeping pace with Mahomes in yards and touchdowns. Is this feasible? Probably not. 

It is true that Russell Wilson is a perennial pro bowl level quarterback. It is also true that there has been no point in his career where Wilson was considered the best quarterback (or player) in the league. As silly as it sounds to say out loud, in order to get an MVP vote, someone actually has to think that you were the MVP of the league in a given season. This has never been the case during earlier seasons of Wilson’s career, and the narrative of Russell Wilson “surprisingly” never receiving an MVP vote should wrongfully continue on into 2021.

All Statistics via Pro Football Reference