Authors: Andrew Davis and Neev Suryawanshi

The saying “defense wins championships” is an old football adage from famous coach Bear Bryant. The saying was especially true in the 80s through 90s, where teams like the Bears and Steelers had all-time great defenses and became dynasties. However, in recent years, the adage has been more up for debate. NFL rule changes designed to protect players and make games less physical have made defenses less effective in turn. The previous Super Bowl saw the Chiefs win with a high-powered offense and serviceable defense, similar to the New England Patriots dynasty that dominated the NFL for the last decade and a half. It seems that now most people believe that offenses, or quarterbacks, are what wins championships.

It is not unusual to see NFL teams with high powered offenses tear through both the regular season and playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl. However, offense alone does not win championships. Since Super Bowl XXXIV, 13 out of 21 champions had a higher defensive rating than their opponents based on yards per game, with 12 of 13 victors having a lower offensive ranking than their competitor. In fact, since the turn of the twenty-first century, four Super Bowl champions had both a lower ranking offense and defense than their opponent. Over the same time span only four Super Bowl champions had a superior offense in comparison to their opponent. Since Super Bowl XXXIV, champions had an average offensive rank of 11.38 and defensive rank of 7.19 and the runner-up had an average offensive rank of 6.71 and defensive rank of 9.32. When comparing the averages, the runner-up more often than not had a higher average ranking if defense and offense are weighted the same. While a super powered offense greatly increases a team’s odds of making the Super Bowl, the big game is often won by the team with the higher-ranking defense.

While statistics demonstrate that defense usually sets one team apart within the Super Bowl, this is not always the case. As seen in Super Bowl’s XXXIX, XXXXI, XXXXIV, XXXXV, teams with a comparatively superior offense and inferior defense were victorious. In Super Bowl XXXIX, the Patriots had the 7th ranked offense and 3rd ranked defense in terms of yards per game. Their opponents, the Philadelphia Eagles, entered the Super Bowl with the 9th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense. With both teams boasting top 3 defensive units, the difference in this Super Bowl was the Patriots more efficient offense led by Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots edged out the Eagles 24-21. A similar situation occurred in Super Bowl XXXXV with the Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers, out dueling the Pittsburgh Steelers. That season the Packers finished with the 2nd rated defense and 9th rated offense, while the Steelers had the number one defense and 14th ranked offense. Again, when two top 3 defenses played in the Super Bowl the team with the superior offense was victorious. While in Super Bowl XXXXI and XXXXIV the elite offense of both the Saints and Colts were too much for their opponents to handle, with both teams winning by two possessions. 

A rare situation occurred in Super Bowl LII where both the Eagles and Patriots offenses and defenses ranked in the top 7. Viewers were unsure what to expect in this Super Bowl. Many saw this as the easiest Super Bowl that Tom Brady and the Patriots had been to yet as Nick Foles, the Eagles’ backup quarterback, was going to start for Philadelphia. Foles replaced Carson Wentz in Week 13 that season, after Wentz tore his ACL. At game start the Patriots were 4.5-point favorites and the total was 44.5. To the surprise of many, the game would go on to be a shootout, with a final score of 41-33 Eagles. The two teams combined for 1,151 yards, the most ever recorded in Super Bowl history. It may seem as though the defenses did not matter in this game, and that would not be entirely incorrect as there was only one punt the entire championship. That said, defense was critical to the final outcome when Brandon Graham sacked and stripped the ball from Tom Brady. The ball was recovered by the Eagles, effectively sealing the game. While neither defense played well in Super Bowl LII, the higher ranked Eagles defense was able to make a key play and did their part to earn Philadelphia its first Super Bowl title.

Statistically, there is a positive correlation between playoff success and defensive performance, which was measured by yards given up per game. There is also a similar correlation between playoff success and offense, as well, so it is fair to say that offense and defense play a similar role in determining playoff success. In the last years, the Super Bowls have been variable. There have been shootouts defined by offense like Super Bowl LII with the Patriots and Eagles, which ended 41-33, but the next Super Bowl was a defensive showdown with a score of 13-3. It is safe to say that the adage is not true anymore, as offense can win championships as well. At this time in history, it seems that good football teams win championships.