Drew McDermott (drewmcdermott2024@u.northwestern.edu), Weinberg

In recent years, “the shift” has become one the most widely used defensive techniques – and also one of the most controversial. At its core, the shift is defined as changing the typical defensive alignment. There are many forms of shifting seen in today’s MLB, some more classic versions and some new and extreme.

Centerfield shift: One of the most subtle shifts in the game, and one utilized from little league all the way up through pro ball. In this defensive alignment, all players play at their traditional spots, except for the centerfielder, who shades towards either left or right field, depending on the batter’s tendencies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outfield shift: The outfield shift is another type of shift that gets used at every level of baseball. The outfield shift occurs when all three outfielders move in towards either the right or left field foul line. There are varying degrees of the outfield shift; a softer shift could call upon the outfielders to move only a couple yards in either direction, where more extreme shifts can end up placing all three outfielders on one side of second base.

“No doubles”: This is a specific shift where the outfielders all back up and the corner outfielders pinch the gaps. This shift is designed to allow a weakly hit ball to drop in front of the outfielders for a single but prevent the hitter from getting extra bases.

4-man outfield: The 4-man outfield was utilized heavily by Kevin Cash and the Rays in this year’s playoffs. It involves bringing a player out of the infield and into the outfield, typically in a right, right-center, left-center, left arrangement.

“Lefty shift”: This is a shift that you hear 5 year olds call out whenever a lefty walks up to the plate, but it has been heavily utilized in the MLB for a while. This shift was one of the key tactics that teams used to slow down stars, like Ted Williams and Ryan Howard. In recent years, it has been commonplace to see as many as three or four infielders on the right side of second base.

5-man infield: The 5-man infield is very similar to the 4-man outfield: the defensive team simply takes a player from the outfield and puts them in the infield. This is often seen late in games when a play at the plate is necessary to stop an important run from scoring.

But, does the shift work?

In the MLB this year, the top 5 teams by shift percentage allowed an average of 273.6 runs while the bottom 5 teams by shift percentage allowed 283.8, or 3.6% more runs. The top 5 teams in terms of runs against shifted about 35.4% of the time, compared to about 34.0% by the bottom 5 run preventing teams. Additionally, the shift seems to have an effect on batting average, on base percentage and BABIP (batting average on balls in play). 

As we can see, teams that shift at a higher rate seem to reduce opponent BA, OBP, and BABIP by small amounts. Interestingly, for the top/bottom ten and half, batting average and BABIP appear to be more closely related than on base percentage. Some other studies done on the shift offer an interesting explanation for this. These studies suggest that while the shift can take away a small percentage of hits, a different alignment of fielders can actually be counterproductive for pitchers. These studies analyzed every pitch thrown in the MLB and found a slightly higher percentage of balls thrown when the defense is in a shift. In all, the shift is a technique deployed frequently enough by every MLB team but the Atlanta Braves, but it seems to make only a small difference. But, with the parity of the league today, a small advantage can make the difference between making the playoffs and being shut out of the dance.

Statistics compiled from MLB’s Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.