Author: Drew Miller

UFC 270

While we have lost plenty of interesting fights, the main card of UFC 270 is still strongly anchored by two highly anticipated title fights. Below I will go over my opinions on each main card fight and scope out any market inefficiencies still left leading into Saturday night. 

Francis Ngannou (C) vs Ciryl Gane (IC)

This is a classical skill versus power fight, one that is amplified due to the sheer size of the two men. I have never seen a heavyweight that moves with the grace of Ciryl Gane–in comparison to most plodding heavyweights, Gane simply floats around the cage. And while you can argue about the entertainment value of Gane’s point style, there is not denying the skill. However, due to this skill advantage he has over a frankly putrid heavyweight division, we have yet to see Gane be in a true fight; we have seen him touch and move his way to victories, largely without being touched. The market is giving Gane a 58.3% implied probability of winning, which feels high in my opinion due to the lack of tests he has faced. Francis looks leaner heading into this fight, and we know Francis will not just roll over like Rozenstruik and let Gane touch him for 25 minutes. Ngannou has never been finished–even in his 25 minute drubbing to Stipe in the first fight–leaving Gane’s major win condition a very late finish or decision. It is difficult to give over 50% when Gane must fight perfectly for the full duration of the fight. Further, Ngannou has the nuclear option in his back pocket. In his fight against Rozenstruik, instead of getting into a technical striking match with the highly-accredited kickboxer, Ngannou blitzed forward, causing an immediate and brutal exchange. If Ngannou doesn’t like how the fight is going, he can force this car crash brawl, where he should excel due to his granite chin and historic power. In this fight, Ngannou has the majority of the finishing equity, while Gane has almost all of the decision win equity. Lastly, the grappling shouldn’t matter too much in this spot. While fresh, Francis is a better grappler and could theoretically take down Gane; in the later rounds, Gane could potentially push the grappling. Both feel unlikely given Francis not wanting to gas out early and Gane’s inability to grapple kickboxer Alexander Volkov. 

Brandon Moreno (C) vs Deiveson Figueiredo 

This is a classic market overcorrection. In the first two fights, Figueiredo had an implied probability of over 70%. Figueiredo is an absolute savage in the cage who has been plagued by a penalty in the first fight (which he won in my opinion) and a treacherous weight cut in his second fight. Figueiredo made the weight for this fight and looked jacked on the scales. His move to Fight Ready in Arizona has seemed to payoff with his improved physique and weight cut. Simply put, a healthy Figueiredo is one of the P4P best fighters in the UFC. I think the market has overcorrected, putting Figueiredo’s implied odds at only around 38%. Yes, Moreno is a great fighter and has great durability; however, with this market, all the upside is with Figueiredo, who has more finishing upside. We are putting too much stock into the second fight, where Figueiredo performed awfully due to his weight cut–this is simply one outcome and should not sway probabilities of winning by 30+%. I like Figueiredo to get his title back this weekend. 

Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho

You know it is not the best PPV card when a UFC debutant is in a feature spot. However, this should be a fun fight due to Pereira’s wild antics and Fialho’s solid power. If Pereira messes around early this fight could get interesting; however, Fialho is not the archetype to use to fade against Pereira. We saw Pereira struggle mightily in the third round against Niko Price in his last fight–you want a durable cardio machine against Pereira. Fialho is neither of these things. Further, he cannot grapple, which leaves a very easy path to victory for Pereira if he decides to take it. 

Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup, just maybe not the way you might initially think. Repping the same last name of Khabib, Said Nurmagomedov is a flashy striker who excels at range with a variety of kicks and spinning techniques. On the other hand, American Cody Stamann will play the Dagestan fighter in this one, with a strong wrestling base. I do think there is some value on the Stamann side at implied odds of around 37%, as he has fought everyone in the division and is as durable as anyone. Further, Nurmagomedov does struggle with wrestling and has lost his only true test against Raoni Barcelos. I do have to add that the Barcelos fight was incredibly close (Barcelos is an incredibly talented fighter) and Said is a young fighter who is coming off over a year-long layoff. Stamann has maxed out who he is as a fighter–he is a solid veteran who can wrestle but is not elite at anything. 

Michael Morales vs Trevin Giles

This fight should not sniff a fight night main card, let alone one that the UFC is charging 70 dollars for. Morales is fresh off the DWCS fighting Giles who was recently knocked out by Du Plessis and moving down from middleweight. While Giles has the UFC experience (eight fights in the promotion), I do think Morales is the side. We know who Giles is–he is a gasser who also struggles against solid grapplers. Looking back at his record over the eight fights, he has five wins and three losses. However, in watching those fights, I think he should have five losses due to poor judging. Morales is a young, long rangy striker who I think has great potential. The only concern is his lack of experience and age–he is 22 and has fought incredibly limited competition in Ecuador. The market has the two at a pick-em, where I think there is clear value on the youngster to outstrike Giles or even win minutes on the ground.