Authors: Ian Evenson, David Hsi, Adi Madhu

adimadhu2026@u.northwestern.edu, davidhsi2024@u.northwestern.edu, ianevensen2026@u.northwestern.edu

Every year, the MVP debate is a controversial one. Rather than celebrating the league’s top talent and providing them an opportunity for recognition, the discourse often devolves into a contentious, narrative-driven argument that diminishes some in order to elevate others as “more valuable.” On top of that, there’s always a debate on how players should be measured as “most valuable.” Is it the extent to which they impact their team’s regular season success? Postseason success? Individual performance? 

Maybe. But let’s think of this differently. When you’re at the store, you want to get the most value out of your purchase. So, that effectively means you want to pay as little as possible for as much as possible. What if we used this same approach for NBA players? What if the most valuable players are those that contribute the most to their teams at the lowest price point? Who would be the most overpaid and underpaid? Let’s find out. 

To begin, we need to encompass a player’s value into one number. Though it’s a difficult task, luckily basketball analytics pioneer John Hollinger had an idea. He came up with a Player Efficiency Rating, or PER. A player’s PER tries to boil down all of their on-court contributions into one number. As Holinger describes, “The PER sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.” Positive accomplishments include field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals and negative ones include missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula can be found below:

PER gives us a per-minute and pace-adjusted way to compare players. It cannot comprehensively represent a player, but it can at least summarize a player’s statistical contributions to their team.

In the 2023-2024 NBA season, 343 NBA players qualified for a PER rating. At the top of the chart lies Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, your usual suspects for MVP. Now, they may be the most “valuable,” but do they provide the most value to the organization’s owners? By simply dividing a player’s contract by their PER, we can figure out on a dollar-adjusted basis how much value each player brings to their team. The results may be shocking. 

The Most Overpaid Players in the NBA 

Based on our Dollar/PER stat, Klay Thompson is the most overpaid player in the NBA as of February in the 2023-2024 NBA season. This is not so surprising. After dealing with two major injuries, Thompson is not the player he once was, and it shows. He currently has 17.1 PPG, but at a staggeringly low 41.5 FG%. Combined with his massive $43,219,440 salary for this season, I’d say the Warriors are not getting their money’s worth. Stephen Curry is surprisingly here, as his PER is the 26th highest in the league right now, but his massive $51,915,615 weighs him down. Jrue Holiday is also surprisingly here, but PER is unable to encompass a player’s defensive contributions, so his value may be understated here. All in all, this list does include some high volume shooters that have lower field goal percentages such as Jordan Poole, Bradley Beal and some notable players having rough seasons, so there is some merit to our calculations. Onto the most underpaid players.

The Most Underpaid Players in the NBA 

Eliminating players on two-way contracts, we get the following list:

Luckily for the Warriors, Trayce Jackson-Davis tops the list with a Dollar/PER stat of $54,720. He’s been having a stellar rookie season and been a great defensive and offensive presence for the team. Day’Ron Sharpe of the Brooklyn Nets takes the number two spot with a Dollar/PER stat of $103,563. 

Other notable names include Lonnie Walker IV, who had stellar performances in the playoffs last year with the Lakers and now is continuing to perform for the Nets. There’s Dario Saric, who has been great as an offensive big for the Warriors, not so much defensively. Luke Kornet, known for his distinctive defensive move dubbed the “Kornet Kontest,” also secures a spot on this list. 

There are also many great players that just miss out the top 10, such as Andre Drummond, Cam Thomas, Walker Kessler, Alperen Sengun, Desmond Bane, Kevin Love, Tyrese Maxey, Russell Westbrook, and Tyrese Haliburton, who all lie somewhere in the top 30. And I agree. Some of these contracts, especially Westbrook and Haliburtons’, are complete steals. 

Here’s our findings summarized into one figure:

So there you have it. The next time you believe your team overpays an inefficient player, you’ll know how to back up your arguments. But, these numbers also show that there’s plenty of great talent out there. You just have to get them for the right price.