Authors: Lucas Dvorak, Blythe Heller, Zach Long

Lucasdvorak2026@u.northwestern.edu, blytheheller2026@u.northwestern.edu, zachlong2027@u.northwestern.edu

Klay Thompson’s career with the Golden State Warriors has been nothing short of illustrious. Known for his sharpshooting, solid defense, and ability to stretch the floor, Thompson is a cornerstone of the Warriors’ dynasty which has won 4 championships in the past decade. However, the recent seasons have seen a shift in the narrative surrounding the Warriors’ dominance. Thompson’s 2023-24 season statistics present a stark contrast to his peak years, signaling a decline that has stirred discussions about his current role and his future. Thompson’s season-by-season statistics are not just a reflection of individual performance but a barometer for the Warriors’ success, where his highs and recent lows mirror the team’s trajectory. Ever since Klay Thompson’s back-to-back injuries in 2019 and 2020, his performance (and the team’s performance in several ways) hasn’t been the same.

An analysis of Thompson’s cumulative stats (3PP, PPG, PER, etc) compared to the team’s overall performance represents how vital he is to the Warriors’ success – both his absence and poor performance are indicators that the team will not have a successful season. In the seasons where Thompson had high-performance metrics, the Warriors’ win percentage was notably high, often above 0.700. In contrast, during the seasons of his absence or decline in performance, the Warriors’ win percentage has suffered, dropping to as low as 0.231 in the 2019-20 season and sitting at 0.457 in the current season. 

Thompson’s plus-minus, which estimates his contribution to the Warriors when he is on the court, and net rating, which measures the Warriors’ point differential when he is on the court, have been great indicators of the Warriors’ success. According to Basketball Reference, the typical plus-minus scale ranges from +10 (an all-time season) to +8.0 (an MVP season) to +6.0 (an all-NBA season) to +4.0 (all-star consideration) to +2.0 (a good starter) to +0.0 (a decent starter/solid 6th man) to -2.0 (a bench player). Thompson holds 3 of the top 5 best plus-minus season averages among all shooting guards in the last decade. During the 2014-2015 season, Thompson’s exceptional +/- rating of 10.1 (a 66% increase from the previous season and a league-best +/- among shooting guards that season) and net rating of 15.2 led the Warriors to their first championship since 1975. His net rating remained robust at 14.6 in the Warriors’ subsequent record-setting 73-win season.

In the following seasons, the Warriors’ dynasty was established and Thompson’s plus-minus rating remained very high (averaging 7.8 in the next four seasons) as the Warriors won two additional championships. When the Warriors won another chip in 2016-17, Thompson had a net rating of 14.1. Even as his rating normalized to 7.1 in the 2017-18 championship season, these numbers still represent a substantial positive impact, reflecting his offensive and defensive contributions. Furthermore, Thompson’s peak in scoring average (PPG) and efficiency (Effective Field Goal Percentage) came in the seasons leading up to 2018-19, coinciding with the Warriors’ most successful period. Thompson’s scoring was prolific during these years, averaging above 20 PPG, with his highest average peaking at 22.3 PPG in the 2016-17 title season. 

Thompson’s decline seems to be evident following the 2019-20 season, highlighted by the fact that Thompson did not play due to an ACL injury sustained in the finals of the previous season. This injury marked a turning point in both Thompson’s career and the Warriors’ dominance. In the subsequent season, 2020-21 (the second full season in a row that Thompson missed), the Warriors’ win percentage dropped significantly to 0.231 and they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010-2012. Thompson’s return from injury in the 2021-22 season came with another Warriors title run, but the following seasons have seen a great decline in both Thompson’s performance and the team’s results overall. As of the current 2023-24 season, Thompson’s net rating has fallen to an alarming -3.0, and his plus minus is currently -1.6. These statistics suggest that the Warriors are being outscored by their opponents when Thompson is playing. Furthermore, Thompson’s declining win VORP (from 4.0 in 2014-15, 2.5 in 2015-16, and 1.9 in 2016-17 to 0.7 in 2021-22, 1.0 in 2022-23, and 0.2 in 2023-24) indicates he is increasingly more replaceable. Thompson’s declining win share averages (from 8.8 in 2014-15, 8.0 in 2015-16, and 7.1 in 2016-17 to 1.8 in 2021-22, 3.1 in 2022-23, and 1.8 in 2023-24) echo this pattern. ] 

So what happens now that Thompson is not playing up to his ‘standard’? 

The Warriors have an interesting decision to make regarding Thompson’s future: trade him in-season for players and/or picks, renew his contract at the end of the season, or let him walk. In 2019, Thompson, the current second highest paid player on the Warriors – 9 million behind fellow ‘splash brother’ Stephen Curry – signed a 5 year / $189,903,600 contract with the Golden State Warriors, including $189,903,600 guaranteed. Thompson ranks 54th in player efficiency rating among shooting guards, but he has the 3rd highest cap hit (behind only Bradley Beal and Paul George). Should the Warriors offload some of his guaranteed $43,219,440 this year via a trade? Head Coach Steve Kerr’s recent benching of his once-star shooting guard in the 4th quarter against the Nets might be a sign of what’s to come: the end of Klay Thompson in Warriors colors and the official end of the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty. 

In conclusion, the compelling correlation between Klay Thompson’s performance metrics and the Golden State Warriors’ fortunes is undeniable. His journey from being a pivotal figure in the team’s spectacular championship runs to his struggle with injuries and subsequent dip in form mirrors the team’s fluctuating success. The 2023-24 season paints a clear picture: for the Warriors to rediscover their winning ways and reestablish their dominance in the league, they need Thompson not just on the floor, but performing at his peak. His sharpshooting, defensive prowess, and ability to stretch the defense are more than just assets; they are essential components of the Warriors’ DNA. As Thompson goes, so do the Warriors.