Author: Ben Pilnick

benjaminpilnick2026@u.northwestern.edu

Running backs have always played an important role in the National Football League. They run up the middle, catch passes, and have been the face of many organizations. However, in the past few years, the value of the running back position has significantly decreased. Recent contract disputes with All-Pro running backs such as Josh Jacobs, Jonathon Taylor and Saquon Barkley have highlighted the dramatic change. This investigation will not explore the value of RB’s directly, but more look at the consequences of their decreasing value.

According to many analysts, a “good” or even “great” season for an RB is gaining over 1000 yards. I used data–source Sports Reference–from 2002 to the 2023 season to determine the proportion of running backs who gained 1000 yards or more in a season. I calculated this by looking at the number of running backs who played the same or more than the average number of games played by in their respective season. This would then only consider running backs who played a significant amount in the season. Teams use multiple running backs to run the ball and it is only logical to limit the number of backs.

I found that since 2002, the number or proportion of running backs who gained 1000 yards or more has decreased. This is clearly supported by the graph below comparing the data. There is a strong negative linear relationship between the proportion of running backs who gain over 1000 yards. The correlation or R^2 coefficient was -0.79. Even though there is a strong correlation, it does not lead to causation, thus there must be further evidence that explains why this is occurring.

To explain this decrease, I first looked at the average number of running backs used by each team (RB’s were identified if they had at least a carry). I noticed that the number of running backs used by teams has significantly increased. When we look at the graph below (on the left), in 2002, the average usage of running backs was 3.25, and in 2022 this number increased to 4.43. If the number of running backs used by teams have increased, wouldn’t that also mean that there are fewer opportunities for each individual running back? This then led me to look at the average number of attempts by a leadback in a respective season. I hypothesized that the number of attempts would decrease. And this was correct (graph below on the right). There is a clear negative correlation between the number of attempts of a lead back(decreasing). Looking at the 2006 season, we see the highest proportion of RB’s over 1000 yards (21.78%) and the highest number of attempts (264.65) by a lead back. The 2006 season was studded with the likes of superstars Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Frank Gore.

Overall, teams have relied heavily on more running backs which decreases the attempts any one running back would have. That would clearly contribute to and explain the lower proportion of Running backs who gain over 1000 yards in a season. Maybe “workhorse” backs are being put out to pasture. Given the violence of the role, maybe this is a good thing that can prolong careers and preserve the health of these remarkable athletes.