Author: Drew Miller

UFC 266

While not the best PPV in the world, this should be a fun offering with a couple of titles on the line. Below I break down the best fights on the card, as well as break down some potential market inefficiencies. 

Alexander Volkanovski versus Brian Ortega (Featherweight Title Bout)

Fresh off his second win against Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski comes into this title fight with Brian Ortega as one of the most underrated mixed martial artists on the roster. In winning a controversial split decision, many have simply blamed Volk for winning the close fight–instead of praising his amazing performance. Looking at this matchup, we have a talented distance striker in Volkanovski–one with solid wrestling–facing Ortega, a jiu-jitsu finisher who showcased newfound striking in his last fight. The problem with these sole jiu-jitsu fighters is that they have an inability to get the fight to the ground. Ortega is no different, as he struggles with only .8 takedowns per 15 with a poor 21% accuracy. And with Volk’s 72% takedown defense, this fight will probably play out where Volk wants it to be. Looking at the striking numbers, Volk averages 6.02 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.31–elite numbers. On the other hand, Ortega has a negative striking differential, landing 4.29 while absorbing 6.28. It is tough to find a reliable way in which Ortega can win this fight, as it is incredibly difficult to find submissions (how he has won the majority of his fights) at the highest level of MMA–while those on the lower tier of the UFC can be submitted without being rocked, most ranked fighters need to be badly concussed or injured before succumbing to a guillotine or rear-naked choke. Triangles and armbars don’t happen at the highest level. The oddsmakers currently have Volk’s implied win probability at 63.6%, one that feels low given all his advantages in this fight. I predict a Volk win by decision, as Volk prefers a point style fight, and Ortega is one of the toughest fighters on the planet 

Valentina Shevchenko versus Lauren Murphy (Women’s Flyweight Title Bout)

There is simply not much to say on this fight–the market has given Valentina over a 90% implied win probability. This number is to simply insure a banana peel injury from Valentina, as there are no facets of mixed martial arts where Lauren Murphy will have success. Lauren will be lucky to survive the 25-minute fight, as a Valentina finish at some point seems likely. 

Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler

Nick Diaz is returning to the octagon for the first time since 2015–you can pretty much throw out any other available fight statistic. While the first fight is a major storyline heading into this rematch, it took placed in 2004–you can disregard the Nick Diaz knockout win. In my opinion, this fight simply comes down to activity. We know Robbie Lawler has been training consistently day in and day out to try to complete with the best. We simply don’t know how much Diaz has trained and where his body or mind is coming into this fight. The odds imply that Lawler has a 52.4% chance of winning, which again feels incredibly low in my eyes. He has foughten eight times since Diaz has, and while he hasn’t been successful in his past few fights, he has been fighting the elite of the elite at welterweight. I think Lawler should sit at about a 60% chance of winning, given all the question marks surrounding Diaz. 

Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

This is a high-stakes heavyweight clash, with the winner getting back into the title-elimination fight conversation. Every single statistic seems to favor Blaydes in this fight, especially the grappling. Blaydes is simply the best wrestler at heavyweight, with a 54% takedown accuracy on 6.64 per 15 minutes. And while his chin might be an issue, he has only been knocked out by the elite power punchers in the division. And while Rozenstruik certainly falls into that category, he simply doesn’t let his hands go. I think the biggest edge in this fight is the over 1.5 rounds, which currently has a probability of 62%. However, I think this should be closer to 65-70%, as Rozenstriuk is low volume on the feet, and Blaydes–coming off a stiffening knockout–should either sit in half guard or play the distance game on the feet. 

Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili 

I am honestly shocked this is not on the main card. Merab Dvalishvili comes into this fight as a literal unstoppable machine, one that averages 7.8 takedowns per 15 minutes. Merab has insane cardio and continuously shoots in on takedowns, regardless of previous wrestling success. This should be a fun clash of styles, as Moraes is an interesting test for Dvalishvili. Moraes is best defined as a glass cannon, one with an avg fight time of only seven minutes, with many of them being listed as five-round fights. One inefficiency I see is the probability of Moraes winning in round one, as this should be a large portion of his win equity. Currently only listed at about a 10% probability, Moraes is an explosive finisher, with finishes over current champ Aljamain Sterling and the durable Jimmie Rivera, and he could poke holes into Merabs questionable striking defense. 

Dan Hooker vs Nasrat Haqparast

Another absolute banger of a fight, I cannot wait to watch this violence. Dan Hooker, the man who almost finished Dustin Poirer, is notorious for his fun fighting style. However, coming off a tko loss to Michael Chandler, there are emerging questions about his durability. Worse, he has a negative striking rating .78, while Nasrat has a positive differential of 2.58. However, I believe Hooker can bounce back in this spot. Hooker has faced a much higher level of competition, and the market here doesn’t make much sense. Hooker has a win probability of only 60%, while he had a market win probability of 57% against a much better opponent in Michael Chandler in his last fight. This is a classic market overreaction, as a man listed at 57% against the elite Chandler, should not only be 60% against the untested Haqparast. 

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Chris Daukaus

I have no strong take on this fight; however, it should be an interesting test for a young heavyweight. I am a little concerned that Shamil, who weighed in near the limit, could sit in half-guard against the much smaller Daukas. However, if this stays standing, Daukaus averages 11.78 strikes landed per min and has all first-round finishes in the UFC. 

Uros Medic vs Jalin Turner

While this is on the early prelims, you cannot miss this fight. Please turn this fight on and enjoy the blissful violence that is guaranteed.