Author: Kevin Li (kevinli2024@u.northwestern.edu)

Throughout golfing history, one of the coveted tournaments of the year is The Masters. Whether it is Tiger Woods’ signature hole-out in 2005 or Bubba Watson’s clutch approach on the 10th hole in the playoff, The Masters has thrilled golf fans ever since its inception. In fact, it is the only tournament that has been hosted at the same course — The Augusta National — on the annual season calendar. This consistency provides motivation to dig deeper and discover patterns for success. 

Some have deemed exception putting as key to success. Others say that long hitters have the greatest advantage. What exactly does it boil down towards? How can players gain an edge over their competitors?

To find out, we analyze key performance metrics of the past 10 winners, but estimating their skills in 5 categories relative to the entire field: 

1. Driving Distance: How far a player hits their drives on par 4 and par 5s
2. Driving Accuracy: percentage of fairways hit (i.e: 7/14 fairways gives a 50% accuracy)
3. Approach: Generally describes iron shots (i.e: second shot to par 4s) and measured by the percentage of greens hit and proximity to the hole. 
4. Around Green: Generally describes chips, pitches, sand shots, and shots within 70 yards
5. Putting: How well a player performs on the green

Assuming that the data from each category form a normal distribution, we will evaluate the players’ skills with a Z-score, where the dataset has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. 

Using the 68-95-99.7 rule, for instance, if a player has a z-score of 2, he performed better than 95% of the field in that particular category. Here are the full statistics: 

	Driving Distance	Driving Accuracy	Approach	Around Green	Putting
2019  (Tiger Woods)	0.6	0.7	2.0	1.3	0.8
2018 (Patrick Reed)	0.2	-1.0	0.8	1.9	1.4
2017 (Sergio Garcia)	0.7	0.3	0.5	1.2	0.2
2016 (Danny Willett)	0.2	0.2	0.9	1.2	0.9
2015 (Jordan Spieth)	0.4	0.4	1.5	1.8	2.0
2014  (Bubba Watson	2.7	-0.6	1.1	0.0	-0.2
2013 (Adam Scott)	2.0	0.3	1.8	1.2	0.0
2012 (Bubba Watson)	3.1	-0.7	1.2	-0.3	-0.2
2011 (Charl Schwartzel)	0.5	0.1	0.8	0.3	1.6
2010 (Phil Mickelson)	1.6	-1.9	1.8	1.7	0.4
10-year average	1.2	-0.22	1.24	1.03	0.69

Note: Data from 2020 ignored due to Covid-19 causing the tournament to be played at an irregular date

There are many interesting numbers to take note of here. 

Firstly, the average driving accuracy of the past 10 Masters winners has been below field average, showing that one does not need to be particularly accurate to be able to play well around Augusta National. However, it is worth noting that this inaccuracy is largely made up by their length advantage off the tee. 

Secondly, we see that two of the biggest differentiators are driving distance and approach — none of the past 10 winners have been trailing the field in these two categories. Especially from 2012 to 2014, Bubba Watson and Adam Scott effectively led the field (or in the top 3%) in driving distance. 

What is the takeaway here? Augusta National tends to be more forgiving to long hitters, as their lack of accuracy off the tee is made up by shorter second shots. The approach shot is equally important here, and above-average putting and scrambling will round up the recipe for success.

Sources: 

https://www.pgatour.com/stats.html

https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/normal-distributions/