Author: Jackson Florsheim (jackson.florsheim2023@u.northwestern.edu), Weinberg ‘23

To preface the following predictions for the upcoming MLB season, it’s important to remember how truly devastating 2020 was for the professional baseball industry. The 2021 Major League Baseball season will be a public display of one of the first industries to emerge from the pandemic economy, from which teams and the league itself have lost hundreds of millions. As a Cubs fan in 2020, I was fortunate to follow a team that soared to a 13-3 start, on pace for a high seed in the expanded playoffs. They quickly returned to earth and concluded the shortened 60-game season with a record of 34-26, pretty much in line preseason projections. Looking ahead to the 2021 Chicago Cubs, the biggest question of this offseason will be payroll. The pandemic has hit the Cubs especially hard, as the franchise’s bottom line is heavily reliant on typically high attendance and day of game revenue. Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts recently suggested that the Covid-19 vaccine will play a role in the 2021 Cubs spending figures, but that it might not arrive in time. The following are bold predictions for the Cubs’ offseason under new President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer, and are organized in order of actual likelihood.

The Chicago Cubs sign Kolten Wong to a short-term deal

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

The Chicago Cubs have seen a lot of longtime St. Louis Cardinal Kolten Wong since his big league debut in 2013, which ended with a memorable World Series moment. Since then, he has been a mostly league average hitter (in OPS+) while compiling high contact numbers–a weakness of the Cubs in recent years. While his offense took a noticeable step back in the shortened 2020 season, he has a consistent and recent track record of gold-glove caliber defense at second base. Partnered up the middle with self-proclaimed “magician” Javier Baez, whose offense slid in 2020 as well, the 2021-and-beyond Chicago Cubs would have a gold-glove caliber tandem up the middle. 

The Cubs break up the world-series core

Likelihood: Somewhat Unlikely

Here’s the 0-1. This is gonna be a tough play. Bryant, the Cubs…won the world series five years ago. To a Cubs fan, the world series fever feels recent, still. As reality sinks in, however, the current Cubs team is without most of their 2016 faces anyway. In the photo above, taken during the 2016 World Series, Anthony Rizzo is pictured with Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber. Rizzo is the last man standing in that photograph. Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, members of the once young position player core, are both rapidly nearing free agency. If either were to be traded at this point, their value would likely be significantly lower than even one year ago, taking into account both player performance and the current plummeting financial landscape of the league. If the Ricketts decide to cut payroll for the 2021 Season, fans will expect similar performance from free agents or trade returns. Anything less than a fantastic return will sting for Cubs fans, with Schwarber being the first example of a core-player leaving the team for nothing. If the Cubs do nothing this offseason with these players, free agency will come anyway. This season will likely determine the long-term homes for some of the Chicago Cubs world series winning core players, whether it is on the North Side, or not. 

The Chicago Cubs sign Trevor Bauer to a 1-year deal

Likelihood: Fairly Unlikely

If the Cubs end up spending money this offseason, they should look no further than Trevor Bauer, 2020 NL Cy Young victor. Cubs fans remember beating Bauer twice during the 2016 World Series, though his velocity and command have gotten much better in each season since. With a rotation led by Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Trevor Bauer, the 2021 Chicago Cubs could bolster the most deadly trio of starting pitchers in the entire league. Trevor Bauer has been said to prefer maximizing his contract value by taking advantage of one-year deals, so the Cubs could potentially seize an opportunity to lock up a wide open NL Central and charge into the playoffs. Not to mention, the Cubs are reportedly considering bringing back Jon Lester, which could immediately infuse veteran performance at the back end of the rotation.