Author: Max Marks (maxmarks2023@u.northwestern.edu)

For several years, “20 majors” was Roger Federer’s claim to goat status. But as of October 11, 2020, his younger Spanish counterpart, Rafael Nadal, has caught him, igniting a fresh new wave of debate. And let’s not forget about Novak Djokovic, who can very possibly surpass both Federer and Nadal in major titles, and Rod Laver, who twice accomplished a feat no other male has—the calendar year grand slam.

The question of what should count toward the goat debate is quite subjective, but comparing the number of major championships won is a pretty uncontroversial consideration. After all, performing well on the biggest of stages ought to be a good indicator of who is the best. 

Federer, in major finals, has won 20 times in 31 appearances, for a win rate of 64.5%.  Six of those losses have come against Nadal, four against Djokovic, and one against Juan Martin del Potro, one of the rare non-big four (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray) winners since 2003. Nadal, on the other hand, has his 20 wins in only 28 finals appearances—a 71.4% win rate. Three of his losses were to Federer, four to Djokovic, and one to Stan Wawrinka. Diving slightly deeper into Nadal’s numbers reveals a trend perhaps even more impressive than his 20 majors—13 French Opens in 16 years, including a stellar 13-0 record in the finals. Everyone knows Nadal is the King of Clay, and for a long time, that title was his ticket to goat status. But now with the same number of major championships as Federer, Nadal’s case is strengthened even more. Djokovic, with 17 wins in 27 appearances (62.9%) is behind both in titles and percentage; however, as the youngest of the three at 33, he has time to catch up.

Another popular metric is head-to-head record. In this era where just three players have largely defined a generation of tennis, looking to see who is the most dominant within the group is certainly useful. Here’s the quick rundown: Federer 16 wins vs. Nadal 24, Nadal 27 vs. Djokovic 29, and Djokovic 27 vs. Federer 23. Djokovic takes the cake here, having a winning record against each opponent. He is also 4-1 against Federer in major finals (his only loss coming in his first grand slam final appearance, the 2007 US Open), but only 4-5 against Nadal in those same situations.  

The final metric discussed here will be weeks at the number one world ranking. This metric demonstrates overall dominance in the sport.  

Nadal has held the top ranking in the world for a total of 209 weeks, only 6th all time for this statistic. Djokovic, who is currently number one, has held it for 298 weeks. And Federer tops this list with 310, including an astronomical 237 consecutive weeks, almost double anyone else’s longest streak.

The goat debate in tennis is very subjective, and this certainly has not been an exhaustive list of all metrics used to compare and debate. Anyone can choose an argument to push their preferred player over the top, but it really comes down to what you value in a goat. Is it championships? Dominance over other greats? Dominance over the sport? We can say with certainty that this era of tennis is unlike any previous, and probably unlike any future, with three players making credible arguments for goat status. Who knows, maybe five or ten years from now we’ll have a more definitive answer if one of these players can continue their streak of dominance when they are past their prime.

Sources:

https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php

https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/rafael-nadal.php

https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/novak-djokovic.php