Authors: Jacobs Rogers (McCormick ’22) and Mark Overby (Weinberg ’22)

 

The 2018 Postseason for Major League Baseball went pretty much as expected. The best team, with the most wins, the best offense, and the highest payroll (sorry, my small-market bias is showing), simply waltzed their way to a World Title. However, some deeper narratives were at play, specifically among pitchers. We, being the greater baseball community, cringed as “Playoff Kershaw” happened, again. We celebrated as Justin Verlander moved up to fourth in all-time playoff wins. We cried (just a tear or two, of course) as David Price conquered his playoff demons and became a World Series Champion.

Poor outings from Kershaw and phenomenal appearances from Price lead us to wonder: Why do some pitchers’ performances vary so greatly from the regular season to the postseason? We will answer this question, evaluate which pitchers rise to the occasion, and see how they achieve this.

In general, playoff pitching will vary from regular season pitching. The games have greater importance, hitters take different approaches, and managers keep their pitchers on much shorter leashes. This can result in minor statistical changes, but this article will analyze the major deviations in certain statistics that determine a pitcher’s success in the postseason.

 

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw, a three-time Cy Young Award winner and seven-time All-Star, has pitched and dominated in the MLB for 11 seasons. Despite his sustained success, Kershaw has always struggled in the postseason. He only has 9 wins in 24 starts, and he has had his fair share of awful outings.

Here is a chart to compare Kershaw’s career regular and postseason pitching statistics:

KERSHAW	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	WHIP
Regular	2.39	2.64	9.77	2.30	0.62	0.271	79%	46.30%	8.20%	1.005
Postseason	4.32	3.75	9.77	2.61	1.30	0.262	65.60%	43.90%	14.90%	1.092
Difference	1.93	1.11	0	0.31	0.68	-0.009	-0.134	-0.024	0.067	0.087
% Change*	80.8%	42.05%	0.0%	13.5%	109.7%	-3.3%	-17.0%	-5.2%	81.7%	8.7%

*The statistics where there is significant variation (>5%) are colored green (for a desirable change) or red (for an undesirable change).

Clearly, Kershaw pitches much better in the regular season. In October, he’s giving up almost twice as many earned runs. This is expected as Kershaw allows way more homeruns with a higher HR/9 and HR/FB. Kershaw also walks more batters in the postseason and is less successful at getting out of trouble, as his LOB% is considerably lower. These statistics certainly reflect the poor performances that we have seen out of Kershaw throughout his playoff career.

 

Justin Verlander

Verlander is a Cy Young Award winning veteran with 14 seasons of Major League experience, including 25 postseason appearances. Verlander, a hard-throwing and dominant right-handed pitcher, is known to have great success in the playoffs; he is fourth all-time in career postseason wins and strikeouts.

 

Here is a chart to compare Verlander’s career regular and postseason pitching statistics:

VERLANDER	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	WHIP
Regular	3.39	3.42	8.83	2.64	0.89	0.285	74.5%	38.1%	8.6%	1.162
Postseason	3.19	3.42	9.87	2.72	1.06	0.246	76.2%	35.2%	10.5%	1.024
Difference	-0.2	0	1.04	0.08	0.17	-0.039	0.017	-0.029	0.019	-0.138
% Change*	-5.9%	0.0%	11.8%	3%	19.1%	-13.7%	2.3%	-7.6%	22.1%	-11.9%

*The statistics where there is significant variation (>5%) are colored green (for a desirable change) or red (for an undesirable change).

Verlander’s playoff pitching is even better than his solid regular season performances. In the postseason, Justin gives up less earned runs, lets fewer runners on base, and strikes out more batters. While he allows more homeruns, it is just about the average for the regular season (1.05 HR/9). Verlander certainly knows how pitch his best when it matters most, and that is why he is one of October’s all-time greats.

 

Madison Bumgarner

While he did not pitch in the postseason this year, Bumgarner is still a great example of regular and postseason success. The four-time All-Star has pitched in the majors for ten years and won three World Series with the Giants. In his 16 postseason appearances, Bumgarner has been stellar.

Here is a chart to compare Bumgarner’s career regular and postseason pitching statistics:

BUMGARNER	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	WHIP
Regular	3.03	3.25	8.74	2.11	0.89	0.283	77.0%	44.10%	9.90%	1.108
Postseason	2.11	3.11	7.65	1.58	0.7	0.236	83.90%	33.90%	6.90%	0.899
Difference	-0.92	-0.14	-1.09	-0.53	-0.19	-0.047	0.069	-0.102	-0.03	-0.209
% Change*	-30.4%	-4.31%	-12.5%	-25.1%	–21.3%	-16.6%	9.0%	-23.1%	-30.30%	-18.9%

*The statistics where there is significant variation (>5%) are colored green (for a desirable change) or red (for an undesirable change).

Bumgarner rises to the occasion when it matters most. He has a lower ERA, less walks, and a lower WHIP in the postseason than in the regular season. Madison also strands nearly 84% of baserunners in the playoffs, and keeps the ball in the yard with a low HR/9 and ratio of homeruns to flyballs. With these numbers, it is no surprise that Bumgarner has been so successful in his postseason career.

 

David Price

Price is another Cy Young Award winning pitcher who has pitched in the majors for 11 seasons. He has been very successful, leading the AL in ERA twice in his career and being selected as an All-Star five times. However, Price has not pitched well in the postseason. Before 2018, Price had not recorded a win as a starter in nine appearances.

 

 

 

Here is a chart to compare Price’s career regular and postseason pitching statistics:

PRICE	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	WHIP
Regular	3.25	3.34	8.68	2.32	0.9	0.287	75.2%	43.60%	9.90%	1.144
Postseason	4.62	4.32	8.24	2.54	1.45	0.272	69.30%	43.30%	13.80%	1.198
Difference	1.37	0.98	-0.44	0.22	0.55	-0.015	-0.059	-0.003	0.039	0.054
% Change*	42.2%	29.34%	-5.1%	9.5%	61.1%	-5.2%	-7.8%	-0.70%	39.4%	4.7%

*The statistics where there is significant variation (>5%) are colored green (for a desirable change) or red (for an undesirable change).

These numbers do not point towards much success in the postseason. Price gives up more runs and struggles to keep the ball in the park as a much higher ratio of his flyballs are homeruns. He also walks more batters and is less successful at stranding runners on base. These numbers explain the lack of success we have seen for most of Price’s playoff career.

However, the 2018 Postseason tells a different story. After a poor performance in the ALDS, Price had three wins in the ALCS and WS, including a seven inning, three hit, one run masterpiece in the final game of the World Series.

Here is a chart to compare Price’s career postseason and 2018 postseason pitching statistics:

PRICE 2	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	WHIP
Career Postseason	4.62	4.32	8.24	2.54	1.45	0.272	69.3%	43.30%	13.80%	1.200
2018 Postseason	3.46	4.78	7.96	4.15	1.38	0.209	82.00%	35.70%	12.10%	1.150
Difference	-1.16	0.46	-0.28	1.61	-0.07	-0.063	0.127	-0.076	-0.017	-0.05
% Change*	-25.1%	10.65%	-3.4%	63.4%	-4.8%	-23.2%	18.3%	-17.6%	-12.32%	-4.2%

*The statistics where there is significant variation (>5%) are colored green (for a desirable change) or red (for an undesirable change).

The 2018 Postseason is by far the best of Price’s career. He achieved a lower ERA by allowing a smaller ratio of flyballs to homeruns and an extremely low BABIP. While Price’s BB/9 was pretty high, his incredible LOB% of 82% meant he worked out of danger effectively and stranded many runners. The 2018 Playoffs was a huge turnaround from the trends we have seen in Price’s other postseason outings.

 

What We Have Learned…

This look at pitchers’ postseason performances and success has shown that there is no single determining statistic. It can vary for a couple reasons, an important one being a pitchers’ style. For Verlander, he needs a high volume of strikeouts to be successful. However, we have seen that for Bumgarner and Price that is just not the case.

Of course, the lower the ERA, the more successful a pitcher will be. But each statistic listed will have a sizeable effect on the number of runs a pitcher allows.

The LOB% certainly seems to be a strong indicator of how well a pitcher performs in the postseason. There is much to be said about a pitcher who is mentally tough, who can pitch their best when their back is against the wall and a series is on the line.

Those are the players you want on the rubber for Game 7.

Glossary

ERA: the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings

FIP: an ERA with league average results on balls in play

K/9: the number of strikeouts per nine innings pitched

BB/9: the number of walks per nine innings pitched

HR/9: the number of homeruns per nine innings pitched

BABIP: how often a ball in play goes for a hit

LOB%: measures the percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base

GB%: the percentages of balls in play that are ground balls

HR/FB: the ratio of how many homeruns are hit against a pitcher for every fly ball they allow

WHIP: the number of walks plus hits per innings pitched

Sources:

Fangraphs

Baseball Reference