Author: Caitlin Somerville (Weinberg ’20)

Scoring. At the end of any hockey game, the only thing that matters is which team put more pucks in the net. It’s the objective of the game; the reason why those who can do it on a regular basis are one of, if not the most, valuable players on their team. Any player can go on a scoring streak, several games in which it seems like every time they’re in a scoring situation the puck goes in, but what exactly is behind this phenomenon? Two high-caliber players, Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals, have been on both ends of the spectrum at some point over the past two seasons. A closer look at their numbers might give a little insight on factors that could cause this scoring fluctuation.

Table 1. Ovechkin and Crosby career offensive statistics (hockey-reference)

*Season was shortened to 48 games due to a lockout

**Season in progress

Known for his elite playmaking, Crosby surprised some by scoring 44 goals last season and winning the Rocket Richard, the award given to the highest goal scorer at the end of the season. He scored eight goals in his first six games (21 shots, 38.1 S%) and eventually 17 goals through the first 20 (71 shots, 23.9 S%). It’s expected that players scoring at that high of a rate slow down, as he did, scoring the other 27 goals over the remaining 55 games (184 shots, 14.7 S%), though his shooting percentage was still well above the league average of 9.16%. This season has been a different story for the Penguin’s captain, however, scoring only five goals in his first 20 games (60 shots, 8.3 S%) and 19 through all 61 games he’s played so far (171 shots, 11.1 S%).

Oddly enough, Ovechkin’s situation has been almost the exact opposite of Crosby’s. While Crosby shined last season, this elite goal scorer had one of the least productive seasons of his career, scoring only 33 goals over 82 games played (314 shots, 10.5 S%). Though his shooting percentage was higher than the league average, he only averaged 0.40 goals per game, way down from his career average of 0.61. He was quick to flip the script this season, however, opening with nine goals in his first five games (29 shots, 31.0 S%), a feat that only two other players in the past 30 years have accomplished. Through 20 games, the Capital’s captain scored 13 goals (92 shots, 14.1 S%); he’s currently leading the Rocket Richard race with 36 goals in 61 games (256 shots, 14.1 S%).

It’s expected that players scoring at high rates will slow down at times over the course of the 82-game season. Crosby was unable to maintain his scoring pace last season, and Ovechkin likely won’t maintain his this season. To compare these stretches of increased production to the rest of a season, I defined a scoring streak as at least five consecutive games in which a player is averaging over a goal per game. Both Crosby and Ovechkin have played in 13 NHL seasons; Ovechkin has had at least one streak in 11 of them and Crosby in eight. Going through their game logs by season, I separated out their data for total goals, powerplay goals, and shots into streak and non-streak categories, allowing for comparison both within and between the players.

Table 2. Ovechkin and Crosby career statistics separated into streaks, at least five consecutive games averaging over a goal per game, and non-streaks (hockey-reference)

*Season was shortened to 48 games due to a lockout

** Season in progress

During a streak, both players’ goals per game, powerplay goals per game, shots per game, and shooting percentage were higher than their non-streak numbers. This doesn’t necessarily mean that averaging more shots leads to more goals; the number of shots taken differs more between the two players than within their own streak and non-streak data, thus this difference may be more connected to style of play. On the other hand, looking at the percentage of goals scored on the powerplay shows that both players’ reliance on the extra man goes down during a streak. This may suggest that powerplay opportunities don’t play a large role a player’s offensive output when they’re scoring in bunches.

A true scorer first, Ovechkin averages over an extra shot per non-streak game and almost two extra shots per streak game more than Crosby. Ovechkin scores more goals as a result but his shooting percentage falls in the process. Ovechkin also relies more on the powerplay overall; getting the puck to him for his signature fade-away one-timer from the left circle is almost always the move for his team in this situation. Crosby, on the other hand, tends to look for the pass more often than the shot. This could very well account for his lower goal and shot totals, though his shooting percentage in both situations indicates that when he does shoot he’s slightly more efficient than Ovechkin.

Another interesting angle to consider is how their elite teammates factor into their scoring and overall production. For the majority of their careers, both Crosby and Ovechkin have had the highest points per game and, barring missed time due to injuries, the most points on their respective teams at the end of a season. In some of these seasons the gap has been substantial. It is more likely, however, that the number two guy is right up there with them, challenging for, and occasionally overtaking, that top spot.

Evgeni Malkin, second-line center behind Crosby who’s as dominant as any first-liner in the league, is that guy for Pittsburgh. In Washington, first-line center Nicklas Bäckström does a lot of the playmaking that leads to Ovechkin’s goals. I compiled each player’s career totals for goals, assists, and points each season then divided each by the number of games played. For comparison sake, I focused on the statistics per game to account for differences in the number each played in a season. Green boxes indicate that that player’s statistic was greater than the other’s by at least 0.05. Yellow boxes indicate that each player’s statistics were within 0.05 of each other.

Table 3. Crosby and Malkin career offensive statistics (nhl.com/stats)

*Season was shortened to 48 games due to a lockout

**Season in progress

Crosby and Malkin’s career average goals/GP are almost identical, though Crosby has the edge in assists/GP and points/GP (Table 3). In direct competition, Crosby’s statistics have bettered Malkin’s statistics a for substantial amount of their careers, indicated by the green boxes, though there are quite a few yellow boxes as well, indicating that the two have produced on par with each other for much of time as well. Pittsburgh always seems to have at least one of them going. Either of them can play against any opponent’s top line, benefiting both players’ games by spreading out the responsibility, but outside of these broad observations it’s hard to find complimentary relationships affecting goal scoring because they don’t spend a lot of time on the same line.

Table 4. Ovechkin and Bäckström career offensive statistics (nhl.com/stats)

*Season was shortened to 48 games due to a lockout

**Season in progress

In Washington, however, Ovechkin and Bäckström complement each other pretty clearly. In almost every season they’ve played together, Ovechkin has the edge in goals/GP whereas Bäckström has the edge in assists/GP (Table 4). This observation nicely illustrates their respective roles given that they spend the majority of their playing time on the same line. Simply put, Bäckström does the passing and Ovechkin does the shooting. Something else to note is that in the two seasons Ovechkin played without Bäckström he was as productive as ever, but his goals/GP and assists/GP were nearly identical. The skew towards scoring goals in the rest of the seasons further illustrates the influence of having an elite playmaker like Bäckström to play with; he’s been able to focus on scoring first.

Making any analysis within or between players’ seasons is difficult as there are so many factors to consider, many more than I have discussed here. Data that is difficult to keep track of such as what type of shots the player is taking, where they’re taking them from, in what sorts of situations, and the quality of the scoring chance is all relevant and most likely influences the rate of a player’s scoring. Furthermore, it’s difficult to generalize these findings to the rest of the league because of the high caliber of the players I’ve chosen and that of their teams. For instance, Ovechkin and Crosby may be able to convert on more of their chances because those playing with them help create space and time for them. Nevertheless, these findings provide some insight into why streaks occur and how they’re not meant to last.