Author: Jack Stummer (Weinberg ’20)
Conventional wisdom tells us that in an NFL football game, teams should act in point maximizing ways. That is, coaches should make decisions in order to maximize their team’s total points. Not until late in the game do decisions become more situational. For example, in the first quarter of a game, a team might opt to go for it facing 4th and 3 on their opponent’s 35-yard line in a tie game. However, faced with the same situation with one minute left and up a touchdown, a coach might decide to punt the ball, rather than risk turning it over on downs and giving the opponent better field position. While many decisions are made based on probability, past outcomes, and common logic, other more statistically neutral decisions are made based on the situation.
However, many coaches stray from the optimal choice when deciding what to do in such a situation. North Carolina graduate student Jeff Ackerman explored this idea in his research paper, “Job Security and Non-Maximizing Behavior By Managers: Evidence from theNational Football League”. Here, he explores team’s decisions to either punt, attempt a field goal, or go with it when faced with a fourth down attempt in a relatively close game, using an advanced regression model. He found that many times, teams do not make the optimal choice when faced with such a scenario, especially when that choice is to go for it on fourth down. Displayed below are the statistics showing this phenomenon, based off data from the 2012 NFL season.
This brings us to the question: What affects a coach’s decision making in an era where scouting tools and advanced statistics are more accessible than ever before? I sought out statistics based on the 2016 season, in hopes of finding patterns regarding coach’s willingness to take risks, and the amount of years they had been head coach of the team. Did coaches with longer tenures show more willingness to take risks, as they felt more stable on the job? Were newer coaches more inclined to do so, given that they were trying to bring change or excitement to the ball club. Perhaps coaches on the hot seat took more risks, given that they had little to lose.
To answer this question, I decided to look at fourth down conversion attempts and 2-point conversion attempts. The corresponding success percentage did not matter, as I wanted to solely consider how a coach’s tenure and job status affects their decisions to take risks throughout the course of an NFL season. Due to the nature of a football game, there are more opportunities to go for it on fourth down than there are to go for 2, shown by 476 and 108 attempts respectively in 2016. However, I wanted each play to have equal weight, so I multiplied each team’s 2-point conversion attempts by 4 in order to help balance out this discrepancy.
Based on this data, I grouped teams based on their coach’s tenure, with 0 or 1 years of prior experience with the team in one category, 2-4 years of prior experience in a category, and 5+ years of prior experience in the final category.
The results show that teams with newer coaches tended to make riskier decisions, with those with coaches of 5+ years a close second. However, coaches with 2-4 prior years of experience with the team made safer decisions, having a weighted average significantly lower than the other two categories. Thus, we can conclude that teams with inexperienced coaches and teams with very experienced coaches tend to make riskier decisions when it comes to 4th downs and 2-point conversions, while those in the middle tend to play it safer. Whether you are a Patriots fan hoping for a repeat, or a Rams fan hoping that Sean Mcvay can turn it around, there is no question that you are in for your fair share of excitement during the upcoming NFL season.
Ackerman, Jeff. ob Security and Non-Maximizing Behavior By Managers: Evidence from the National Football Leagu. Rep. N.p., 1 May 2012. Web. 21 May 2016.
Ackerman Regression Model: Punt: P(W |a=1; ,d = 4) ; Field Goal: P(W |a = 2; ,d = 4) ; Go for it: P( W |a= 3,)
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