Author: Bernie Pellissier (McCormick ’20)
He’s nicknamed “The Dragon”, Astros GM (and Northwestern Kellogg graduate) Jeff Luhnow praises him as one of the greatest competitors he’s been around, he is the second best relief pitcher in the Major Leagues, and you’ve probably never heard of him.
Chris Devenski has been the horse for the Houston Astros’ bullpen this season, racking up more innings (27) than any other Houston reliever and third most in the Majors. His story is nothing short of unconventional. Drafted in the 25th round of the 2011 MLB draft by the Chicago White Sox, Devenski toiled in the Chicago farm system for a season until being the “Player to be named later” in a trade in which the Astros acquired two minor leaguers and a player to be named later while sending Brett Myers and cash to the White Sox.
Devenski made his MLB debut for the Astros five years later as he pitched in 48 games out of the pen, posting five saves and a 2.16 ERA in 108.1 innings in 2016. While Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Andrew Miller became household names last season, Devenski entered 2017 completely under the radar despite having the ninth best wins above replacement (WAR) of all Major League relievers at 2.8. This season, he has picked up exactly where he left off. Devenski has the second-best WAR among all relief pitchers in Major League Baseball at 1.1, behind only Craig Kimbrel of the Boston Red Sox who is getting paid roughly $12.5 million dollars more than Devenski.
Devenski is a manager’s and sabermetrician’s posterboy. In an article by Fox Sports, Devenski stated that he’s embraced the fact that he doesn’t have a set role in the bullpen. Astros manager A.J. Hinch stated that “Devo’s prepared from the time the game starts.” In terms of sabermetrics, this means that Devenski is always ready to take the ball in instances when it is more statistically advantageous to do so, specifically in righty vs righty matchups and against guys who have trouble hitting changeups. Further, Devenski’s advanced metrics, such as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), and K/9 are far better than league averages.
Suffice it to say, Devenski is strikingly effective. Unsurprisingly, he brings nasty stuff to the table. Yet he’s not your conventional reliever in the sense that he’s not going to blow it by anyone with just his fastball. Devenski has a change-up that he throws 41.7% of the time, the second highest change-up percentage (CH%) of all Major League relief pitchers. The value of this change-up (wCH) is 2.5, meaning that he has “saved” 2.5 runs this season with his change-up alone. Below is a video of Devenski striking out Khris Davis of the A’s on an 82 MPH change-up last September.
Complementing that filthy change-up with a slider, Devenski’s off-speed pitches set up his fastball beautifully. He throws his off-speed 61.2% of the time with an average change-up velocity of 82.8 mph and an average slider velocity of 81.7 mph. His fastball, which he throws the other 38.8% of the time, comes in at batters at an average velocity of 93.8 mph. Yet Devenski can use it as an effective out-pitch and throw it in the upper 90s, as you can see in this video of him striking out Nick Buss of the Angels in September of last season.
Devenski shows no signs of slowing down. He has emerged as a top reliever in the Astros’ bullpen. Per a simple linear regression that uses FIP as the independent variable, if Devenski’s FIP stays where it is today, he can expect to end the season with a WAR that hovers between 1 and 1.3, which will be good enough to earn him a spot as a top ten reliever for the second year in a row.
There is no indication that hitters are figuring out Devenski. Though questions do loom over his future success, such as how his lack of a routine might affect future performance, it is safe to say that he is a top ten relief pitcher in baseball, if not top five. It is uncertain whether Devenski will ever become a household name, but for any baseball fan, he is certainly a name worth knowing as the 2017 Astros continue to dominate the AL West.
Sources:
All statistics and graphs courtesy of Fangraphs (www.fangraphs.com)
All videos courtesy of Baseball Savant (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
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