This website is no longer maintained. Please visit my personal website for up-to-date information: jorismueller.com
Contact Information
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
2211 Campus Drive
Evanston, IL 60208
Phone: +1 (224) 817–2237
Email: jorismueller@u.northwestern.edu
Personal website: jorismueller.com
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, Northwestern University, 2022 (expected)
- M.A., Economics, Northwestern University, 2018
- M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2016 (with Distinction)
- B.A., Economics, University of Zurich, 2014 (summa cum laude)
Primary Fields of Specialization
Development Economics, Political Economy
Secondary Fields of Specialization
Economic History, Applied Microeconomics
Curriculum Vitae
Download Vita [PDF]
Job Market Paper
“China’s Foreign Aid: Political Determinants and Economic Effects” [PDF]
The efficacy of foreign aid, especially when given to satisfy the objectives of the donor country, is highly controversial. I study this question in the context of Chinese infrastructure aid, which has received much attention from policymakers. I build a novel project- and firm-level dataset to identify political determinants of Chinese aid and its economic consequences for recipient countries. I document that when there is local labor unrest in a Chinese prefecture, contracts for Chinese aid projects are allocated to large state-owned firms in the prefecture, and employment by these firms increases. Connections between these firms and other countries mean that China’s response to domestic unrest affects the allocation of Chinese aid projects to recipient countries. I exploit the variation in countries’ receipt of aid caused by the timing and spatial variation in local labor unrest in China, together with these connections, to develop an instrument for identifying the causal effects of Chinese aid on recipients. I find large positive effects on GDP, trade, consumption and employment.
Media coverage: Project Syndicate [PDF], US-China Today
Working Papers
“Chinese Capital Flight to the U.S. Real Estate Market” (with Joe Long) [draft under revision – available on request]
Wealthy foreign real estate buyers have increased rapidly over the past few decades. Of particular note are those from China; in 2016 alone, Chinese buyers were the source of over 100 billion USD of outflows to real estate markets worldwide. In this paper, we investigate the effect that these wealthy Chinese buyers have on local U.S. housing markets, local governments and residents. Using a novel instrument, we demonstrate that an increase in the share of wealthy Chinese buyers in a locality causes an increase in house price growth. As a result of this increased growth, local governments benefit from increased property tax revenues but do not see a drop in sales tax revenues, suggesting that the vacancy rate for Chinese-owned properties is no different from that of counterfactual buyers. A drop in rental prices suggests that wealthy Chinese buyers are more likely to rent out their houses and less likely to move into them.
“State-Building in Multi-Ethnic Societies: Origins of National Identity in Tanzania” (with Ruth Carlitz and Ameet Morjaria) [draft under revision – available on request]
This paper examines the state-building process in an important context: the founding of new, multi-ethnic states in post-colonial Africa. We study the Ujamaa reforms in Tanzania in 1970–1981, one of the largest nation-building policy experiments in recent history. The reforms dramatically altered the nature of public education by changing the content of the curriculum and expanding access to schooling. To implement the reforms, the Tanzanian government used a concurrent policy, known as villagization, which forced much of the country’s population to live together in government administrated villages. We combine differences in the intensity of villagization across districts with differences across school cohorts, induced by the timing of the policy, to identify the effect of Ujamaa on citizens’ attitudes. We show persistent, positive effects on citizens’ identification with the nation, as measured both by survey responses and ethnic intermarriage. Treated cohorts are also more likely to express positive views for a strong central state and less likely to question state authority.
“The Long-Run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900” (with Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn, and Nancy Qian) [PDF]
This paper provides evidence of the long-run effects of a permanent increase in agricultural productivity on conflict. We construct a newly digitized and geo-referenced dataset of battles in Europe, the Near East, and North Africa from 1400–1900 CE and examine variation in agricultural productivity due to the introduction of potatoes from the Americas to the Old World after the Columbian Exchange. We find that the introduction of potatoes led to a sizeable and permanent reduction in conflict.
Media coverage: marginalrevolution.com
Other Work in Progress
“Digital Networks and the Diffusion of Political Movements” (with Ricardo Dahis and Utsav Manjeer)
We exploit the staggered introduction of 3G mobile internet in Africa to examine the effect of new communication technologies on the spread of political unrest in and across countries. We design a novel empirical strategy that allows us to separate the direct effect of mobile internet on unrest from spillovers. We find that digital communication networks lead to the spread of unrest independent of physical distance. Preliminary evidence suggests that social media constitute an important channel.
“The Party and the Firm” (with Jaya Wen and Cheryl Wu)
We use detailed administrative firm data and natural language processing techniques to understand the scope of and motivations underlying the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) growing involvement in the operations of private firms in China.
“Agricultural Productivity, Inequality and the Size of Nations” (with Murat Iyigun, Andrei Markevich, and Nancy Qian)
We examine variation in agricultural productivity due to the introduction of potatoes from the Americas to the Old World after the Columbian Exchange to empirically test Alesina and Spolaore’s (2005) theory of heterogeneity and state size.
Refereeing
Explorations in Economic History
Teaching
- Statistical Decision Analysis (Executive MBA): Fall 2018, 2019, and 2020 (Miami) and Winter 2019, 2020, and 2021 (Evanston)
- Practical Data Analytics with Advanced Methods (MBA): Winter 2019
- Law and Economics (undergraduate): Spring 2018
- Econometrics (undergraduate): Fall 2017 and Winter 2018
References
- Prof. Nancy Qian: nancy.qian@kellogg.northwestern.edu
- Prof. Christopher Udry: christopher.udry@northwestern.edu
- Prof. Ameet Morjaria: a.morjaria@kellogg.northwestern.edu
- Prof. Seema Jayachandran: seema@northwestern.edu