Contact Information

Department of Economics
Northwestern University
2211 Campus Drive
Evanston, IL 60208

Phone: 872-810-5674

E-mail: giovannisciacovelli2024@u.northwestern.edu

Personal website: www.giovannisciacovelli.com

Education

Ph.D., Economics, Northwestern University, 2025 (expected)
MA, Economics, Northwestern University, 2020
MS, Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, 2018
BA, Economics, Universita Tor Vergata, 2016

Primary Field of Specialization

Macroeconomics

Secondary Field of Specialization

International Economics

Curriculum Vitae

Download Vita (PDF)

Job Market Paper

“Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area”

This paper studies the role of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in monetary policy transmission within the Euro Area. Conventional wisdom holds that ARMs are relevant per se. This study finds that the presence of liquidity-constrained households strongly influences their impact. Using Euro Area survey data, I document that transmission is stronger in countries that exhibit both high ARM shares and sizable shares of liquidity-constrained households. Using Italian time series data, I show that ARMs are key for transmission only when a high fraction of households are liquidity-constrained. To explain these findings, I develop a heterogeneous-agent model featuring (i) heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), (ii) agents making both housing and mortgage choices, and (iii) households with ARMs. In the model, MPCs determine the extent to which changes in mortgage payments translate into changes in consumption, making ARMs an important transmission vehicle only when paired with high MPCs. These results underscore the importance of accounting for household heterogeneity when evaluating monetary policy transmission through adjustable-rate mortgages.

Other Research Papers

We present an Open Economy HANK model tailored to capture key characteristics of Low-Income Countries (LICs): (i) poor households with no access to markets (hand-to-mouth) and (ii) a subsistence level of consumption for tradable goods. With the model calibrated for a representative LIC, and motivated by recent macroeconomic developments, we illustrate our framework investigating the consequences of a shock to external prices. We analyze its effects on macroeconomic variables, inequality and poverty. The shock triggers a consumption-led recession, an increase in inflation and a drop in real wages. Consumption inequality increases: poor households can’t insure against the shock, while richer households exploit their wealth to shield their consumption. Households at the bottom and at the top of the income distribution are the most negatively affected by the shock: the former suffer from lower wages and consumption; the latter from negative revaluations of their assets. Monetary policy has limited ability to improve the welfare of poorer households due to its offsetting effects on real wages and labor demand, a finding consistent across the alternative monetary policy specifications analyzed. In contrast, fiscal transfers are shown to be effective in cushioning the welfare losses among  poorer households.

Machine learning models can extract information in a systemic, comprehensive, and replicable way, creating synthetic proxies for a wide range of variables that cannot be measured otherwise. In  this paper, we emphasize that a lot more information and correlation patterns can be extracted from existing historical data using these models. To illustrate our methodology, we study the effects that the Latin Monetary Union had on financial flows among its members in the 19th century, a natural question that has not been addressed because of the lack of data for financial flows during that period. Relying on machine learning techniques, we are able to circumvent these data limitations by reconstructing a proxy for financial flows across 14 countries between 1861 and 1913. Making use of our proxy, we use standard casual inference methods and find that bilateral financial flows increased by 5% between 1865 and 1913 among members of the LMU, and by approximately 15% between 1865-1885, the period during which the Union was most active. Overall, these results provide new insights about the history of the LMU, showing that it did help member countries achieve part of the goals that had pushed them to join the Union in the first place.

Teaching

• Econ 201: Introduction to Macroeconomics (Fall 2020; Winter 2021; Fall 2023)

• Econ 281: Introduction to Applied Econometrics (Winter 2024)

Teaching evaluations are available here.

References

Prof. Martin Eichenbaum (Committee Co-chair)
Prof. Giorgio Primiceri (Committee Co-chair)
Prof. Matthew Rognlie