Contact Information
Department of Economics
Northwestern University
2211 Campus Drive
Evanston, IL 60208
Phone: 773-290-9341
Personal Website: https://www.amilcarvelez.com/
Education
Ph.D., Economics, Northwestern University, 2025 (expected)
MA, Economics, Northwestern University, 2020
MS, Mathematics, IMPA, Brazil, 2015
BA, Economics, PUCP, Peru, 2014.
Fields of Specialization
Econometrics
Curriculum Vitae
Job Market Paper
“On the Asymptotic Properties of Debiased Machine Learning Estimators” [Paper][Online Appendix][ArXiv]
This paper studies the properties of debiased machine learning (DML) estimators under a novel asymptotic framework, offering insights for improving estimator performance in applications. DML is an estimation method suited to economic models in which the parameter of interest depends on unknown nuisance functions that must be estimated. It requires weaker conditions than previous methods while still ensuring standard asymptotic properties. Existing theoretical results do not distinguish between the two alternative versions of DML estimators, namely, DML1 and DML2. Under a new asymptotic framework, this paper demonstrates that DML2 asymptotically dominates DML1 in terms of bias and mean squared error, formalizing a previous conjecture based on the simulation results of their relative performance. Additionally, this paper provides guidance for improving DML2 performance in applications.
Publications
- “A User’s Guide for Inference in Models Defined by Moment Inequalities” with Ivan A. Canay and Gaston Illanes. Accepted at the Journal of Econometrics, 2024+. [Abstract] [Paper][Code]
- “The A/B Testing Problem with Gaussian Priors” with Eduardo M. Azevedo, David Mao, and José Luis Montiel Olea. Journal of Economic Theory, 2023, Vol. 210, 1–23. [Abstract] [Paper]
- “On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and their Variational Approximations” with Marco Avellana, José Luis Montiel Olea, and Cynthia Rush. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2022, Vol. 23 (147), 1–51. [Abstract] [Paper]
- “Posterior Distribution of Non-differentiable Functions” with Toru Kitagawa, José Luis Montiel Olea, and Jonathan Payne. Journal of Econometrics, 2020, Vol. 217 (1), 161–175. [Abstract] [Paper][Supplementary Appendix]
Other Research Papers
- “The Local Projection Residual Bootstrap for AR(1) Models”. Revision requested by Econometric Theory. [Abstract] [Paper][ArXiv]
- “The out-of-sample prediction error of the √LASSO and related estimators” with José Luis Montiel Olea, Cynthia Rush, and Johannes Wiesel. Under Major Revision at Annals of Statistics. [Abstract] [Paper][ArXiv]
- “Identification and Inference on Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization and Imperfect Compliance” with Federico A. Bugni, Mengsi Gao, and Filip Obradovic. Submitted. [Abstract] [Paper][ArXiv]
- “On the Power Properties of Confidence Sets for Parameters with Interval Identified Sets” with Federico A. Bugni, Mengsi Gao, and Filip Obradovic. Submitted. [Abstract] [Paper][ArXiv]
- “Linear IV Model with Missing Data on the Instrumental Variable”. Draf coming soon. [Abstract]
- “Representation Learning in Linear Factor Models” with José Luis Montiel Olea. [Abstract] [Paper]
Teaching
- Lecturer, Northwestern University
- Econometrics Review for Incoming Ph.D. Students 2023Su
- Teaching Assistant, Northwestern University
- Econ 281: Introduction to Econometrics (Undergraduate) 2022W, 2023Sp
- Econ 329: Experimental Economics (Undergraduate) 2022F
- Econ 480-3: Econometrics (Graduate) 2021Sp,2022Sp
- Econ 480-1: Econometrics (Graduate) 2021F
References
Prof. Ivan A. Canay (Committee Co-Chair)
Prof. Federico A. Bugni (Committee Co-Chair)
Prof. Joel L. Horowitz