Author: Mike Pastuovic (Weinberg ’23)

The National League Wild Card Series begin on Wednesday, and for the first time ever, eight NL teams have the chance to win the Commissioner’s Trophy. Each of the eight teams will play a three game series to advance to the Division Series. The NLDS, NLCS, and World Series will maintain their respective Best of 5, Best of 5, and Best of 7 formats. In such a small sample size, anything can happen and upsets are going to happen. Each game will be truly high stakes, as teams will be facing elimination after just one loss. Teams with objectively less talented rosters always have a chance to win in the postseason given the nature of baseball, and this year will be no exception. Each team 1-8 has a clear roadmap to stamp a ticket to the NLDS. Here’s how each team will do it:

#1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs #8 Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Starters:

Game One: Walker Buehler vs TBD

Game Two: Clayton Kershaw vs Brandon Woodruff

Game Three (If Nec): TBD vs TBD

How the Dodgers win: 

The Dodgers are the consensus best team in baseball, and it’s not close. The 2020 Dodgers might be the best iteration of the core yet. Kershaw has quietly made a strong case for NL Cy Young, putting up a 2.16 ERA (3.31 FIP) and 62 strikeouts over 58.1 frames. Walker Buehler should be fresh, following multiple IL stints this year (blister). In his first and only start since returning from injury, Buehler threw 4 innings of shutout ball with six strikeouts against Oakland. He should be stretched out enough to go deep into Game One, as he made about 90 pitches in a sim game prior to his return. The Dodgers have great options for a potential Game Three. Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May have had great results starting this year, and are capable of getting outs in any situation throughout the series. The bullpen has many more than capable arms to get big outs late in games. Lefthander Adam Kolarek has been nearly unhittable for LHBs this year- allowing a .203 OPS in 40 PA. Look for Kolarek to come in against the middle of Milwaukee’s order, which includes lefties Christian Yelich and Daniel Vogelbach. Kenley Jansen will be responsible for the ninth inning, and has looked much better as of late. Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez also have experience getting high leverage outs in the playoffs. The lineup speaks for itself. For reference, Cody Bellinger hit sixth or lower nine times in September. Betts, Bellinger, Seager, Turner, Muncy, Pollock, Taylor, Hernandez- enough said.

How the Brewers win:

The best thing the Brewers have going for themselves is that they only have to win two games. Because this is baseball, a team like the Brewers has a very realistic chance of winning a playoff series against the best ballclub in the game. Certainly, Dodger fans learned this in 2019. The Brewers’ outlook was badly bruised on September 24th when their ace Corbin Burnes went to the IL with a strained oblique. To make matters worse, veteran left-hander Brett Anderson left his start Sunday with an apparent blister. Brandon Woodruff (3.05 ERA, 3.20 FIP) has had a very good year, and will start Game 2. Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser, and soft-throwing lefty Brent Suter will be in the conversation to make starts. Craig Counsell may employ an opener, as he did in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Dodgers in 2018. Counsell always seems to know which strings to pull, and it will be interesting to see how he tries to build the bridge to Devin Williams and Josh Hader. These elite arms at the back of their bullpen give them a chance, if their starters and bats can keep them in games. They can shorten the game to six innings. Devin Williams has been the best reliever in baseball all year, allowing 1 ER in 27 innings, while striking out an almost comedic 17.7 batters per nine. His changeup is probably the nastiest pitch in baseball, averaging 2852 rpm according to Baseball Savant. The average MLB fastball is around 2300 rpm. Josh Hader’s ERA has inflated to a career high 3.79 (with similar peripherals) due to a couple bad outings, but he should still be viewed as a top 5 closer in baseball. The Brew Crew’s lineup is rather poor compared to those of other playoff teams, but can produce runs if two or three of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Dan Vogelbach, Avi Garcia, Orlando Arcia, and Jedd Gyorko can get hot at the same time.

 

#2 Atlanta Braves vs #7 Cincinnati Reds

Projected Starters:

Game One: Max Fried vs Trevor Bauer

Game Two: Ian Anderson vs Luis Castillo

Game Three: Kyle Wright vs Sonny Gray

How the Braves win: 

The Braves’ offense epitomizes this era of baseball, with over 39% of their plate appearances ending in a true outcome (home run, walk, or strikeout). This approach has paid dividends for Atlanta, as they led and shared a league lead for OBP and SLG in the regular season, respectively. Ronald Acuna Jr, Freddie Freeman, and Marcell Ozuna each had incredible years, and are probably the best 1-2-3 combination in the league. The three combined for 45 HRs, with .987 OPS, 1.102 OPS, 1.067 OPS, respectively. Backstop Travis d’Arnaud (.919 OPS) is having a career year hitting cleanup. With contributions from Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall, the Braves have had a top lineup in baseball. The Braves’ playoff rotation will not be what GM Alex Anthopolous hoped it would be heading into the season. 2019 ace Mike Soroka is out for the season with a torn achilles, and veteran free agent signee Cole Hamels (shoulder fatigue) will not be available after making just one appearance for the club. The good news, however, is that Max Fried will be ready to start Game One, following an ankle sprain that caused an early exit in his last start September 23rd. Fried has been excellent in 2020, pitching to a 2.25 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 56 innings, while allowing just 2 HRs. Things get a little hairy after Fried, with Ian Anderson getting the ball in Game Two. The 22 year old rookie has actually been great in his first six MLB starts, pitching to a 1.95 ERA while striking out 11.4 per nine. The playoffs are certainly a different animal, but Anderson should be able to keep them in games, allowing 3 or fewer runs in each of his starts. Kyle Wright would get the ball in a potential Game Three, and has been much better lately, giving the Braves Quality Starts in each of his last three outings. The bullpen is really solid, as Darren O’Day, Chris Martin, Shane Greene, Tyler Maztek, and Mark Melancon have all been effective. Anderson and Wright realistically only need to give the Braves 4 or 5 innings and the ‘pen can take them the rest of the way. If the bats can continue to hit the ball out of the park and their bullpen can continue to hold on, the Braves will win this series.

How the Reds win:

The Reds will go as far as the top three of their rotation will take them. You can put Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo up against anyone else’s top three. They are able to go deep in games, each with electric stuff that allows them to get through elite orders three times. Bauer is probably the Cy Young favorite, leading the league in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (.795) and averaging well over 6 innings per start. It is important that their starters go deep into these games, as their bullpen has been a little shaky outside of the backend. The addition of Archie Bradley at the deadline has been a big positive. LHP Amir Garrett is very good against lefties and could be called upon to get Freeman. Closer Raisel Iglesias has shown the ability to get as many of six outs and strand inherited runners in big spots. The Reds offense will still have to find a way to get runs across. It has been a particularly disappointing year at the plate for the Reds, with a team OPS of just .715, especially poor when you consider the very hitter friendly environment of Great American Ball Park. Eugenio Suarez has been a little disappointing, after a 49 home run season just a year ago. Joey Votto has bounced back a bit from his uncharacteristically mediocre 2019, but is still far off career averages. Jesse Winker and free agent addition Mike Moustakas have been rare bright spots, OPSing .932 and .799, respectively. Nicholas Castellanos is also a big power threat in the middle of the order, but has been a bit underwhelming since his hot start. Thankfully for many in the Reds lineup, stats will be wiped clean when the new season starts Wednesday. With the way the rotation looks, just a few runs a game may be enough to advance to their first NLDS since 2012.

 

#3 Chicago Cubs vs #6 Miami Marlins

Projected Starters:

Game One: Kyle Hendricks vs TBD

Game Two: Yu Darvish vs TBD

Game Three: Jon Lester vs TBD

(Miami will deploy Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Sixto Sanchez in an order still TBD)

How the Cubs win:

The Cubs have a plethora of playoff experience up and down their lineup, in their rotation, and in their bullpen. Conventional wisdom says that this will have a non-negligible effect against an extremely young, inexperienced team like the Miami Marlins. Yu Darvish has silenced critics who were concerned about his future after he underachieved over the first two years of his six year $126M deal with the North Siders. Darvish is another contender in the close NL Cy Young race, with a 2.01 ERA (2.23 FIP) and 11.0 Ks/9, while averaging well over 6 IP per start. Soft-throwing Kyle Hendricks has also been great for the Cubs, sporting a sub 3 ERA after adding his curveball into the mix more often to go with his fastball, sinker, and changeup. An aging Jon Lester would start a potential Game Three for the Cubs. Lester has lost a lot off of his fastball in the last couple years, and it has shown up in the results. The Cubs hope he will lean on his experience and incredible playoff track record (2.51 ERA in 26 appearances). After a rocky start to the season, the Cubs bullpen has been one of the best in baseball over the last 6 weeks. Craig Kimbrel threw 8.1 scoreless in September, while striking out 13. Former Brewer Jeremy Jeffress stepped up into the closing role at times, and shined with a 1.54 ERA.  Ryan Tepera and Dan Winkler have also been stable, reliable arms out of Chicago’s bullpen. Quality lefty Jose Quintana is recently off the IL and can go multiple innings in relief. The Cubs lineup has been a huge disappointment, with former MVP Kris Bryant and former MVP runner up Javier Baez each OPSing under .650. Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo have also underperformed. Luckily for the Cubs, Ian Happ and Jason Heyward have stepped up and are having career years at the plate. The Cubs are another team that can benefit from their stat lines being wiped away. Recent results from Bryant and Baez have been encouraging, and this Cubs lineup can be as dangerous as anyone if they are all hitting at the same time. Do not forget, this is largely the same core that led the MLB in wins and won the World Series in 2016.

How the Marlins win:

No one, probably not even the players  themselves, thought the Marlins would be in the postseason this year. Their perseverance through their COVID outbreak in the beginning of the abbreviated season makes what they have done even more impressive. The Marlins have gotten here in large part due to their starting pitching. Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, and Daniel Castano have done an admirable job of keeping the team in games, start in and start out. All of these starters are 25 and under and are a big part of the future that club CEO Derek Jeter is building. The three projected starters (Lopez, Alcantara, Sanchez) have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 20 of their combined 25 starts. The Marlins will have to hope these starters can go deep into the game, as their bullpen has been quite the adventure. Some relievers like veterans Brandon Kintzler and Brad Boxberger have appeared to have good years on the surface, but peripherals have told a different story (5.00 FIP, 4.86 FIP, respectively). One bright spot is RHP Yimi Garcia, who has allowed just one run in 15 IP (1.66 FIP). The Marlins lineup, like the Cubs, has not really been anything to write home about this year. Miguel Rojas, Garrett Cooper, Jesus Aguilar, and Brian Anderson have been key contributors. Aguilar looks to have regained his 2017-18 form following a rough 2019 campaign. Starling Marte was a really good trade deadline acquisition for Miami, but has been a little bit of a disappointment since joining the team, with .701 OPS in a Marlins uniform. Still, he has a long track record of being a tough out, and is a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the order. At the end of the day, the Marlins are probably going to have to get 6+ innings from their starters to give themselves a good chance. This is not particularly inconceivable; the Cubs bats can go dormant for games at a time, and the Marlins starters are perfectly capable. If the Marlins find a way to score a few against either Hendricks or Darvish, they have a good chance facing a vulnerable Lester in a win or go home Game Three.

 

#4 San Diego Padres vs #5 St Louis Cardinals

Projected Starters:

Game One: TBD vs Kwang-Hyun Kim

Game Two: TBD vs Jack Flaherty

Game Three: TBD vs Adam Wainwright

How the Padres win:

Fernando Tatis’ ascendance to superstardom has been the story of the MLB season. His abilities to hit for power, hit for average, steal bases, and play great defense allow him to change the game in a variety of ways. Manny Machado is back to looking like a superstar, slashing .304/.370/.580. Eric Hosmer is finally playing up to his massive contract, with an OPS of .851. Wil Myers is having the breakout year that many thought would never come, after several lackluster seasons. He has 31 extra base hits, good for a whopping .606 SLG. Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth have been valuable additions to the everyday lineup. The Padres have great talent up and down the order, and have the fourth highest team OPS in baseball (.798). Not much is known about who will start these games on the bump for the Friars. Dinelson Lamet and trade deadline acquisition Mike Clevinger each left their last starts with injuries, and their availability for the Wild Card Series is unknown. Lamet and Clevinger have had great years, each with a sub 3 ERA. We do know that softhrowing Zach Davies will get a start at some point if the series goes three games. The former Brewer has had a great year with a 2.73 ERA (3.88 FIP) in 69.1 innings. These three arms have a great chance to shutdown an uninspiring Cardinals offense if they are all healthy. Even if one or both of Lamet and Clevinger are unable to go, Chris Paddack and Adrian Morejon are decent options to start for San Diego. Former starter Drew Pomeranz has reinvented himself after moving to the bullpen, increasing his velocity and allowing just a 1.45 ERA in 20 appearances. Another deadline acquisition, Trevor Rosenthal, is back to looking like an elite closer, and is yet to allow an earned run in San Diego. Outside of Pomeranz and Rosenthal, the rest of the bullpen has been very inconsistent. If the Padres have a weakness, it is probably their team 4.38 bullpen ERA. If the Padres bats do what they have done all season long, and they continue to get quality outings from their starters, the Padres will advance to the NLDS.

How the Cardinals win:

Like the Marlins, the Cardinals have done a remarkable job to get to the postseason following their own COVID outbreak. The Redbirds had to play a grueling 11 doubleheaders, and had to grind to end up as the five seed. Kwang-Hyun Kim has been brilliant in his first MLB season, following a long career in Korea’s KBO. The veteran left hander has pitched to a 1.62 ERA, and is more than capable of shutting down the Padres in his well-earned Game One start. Jack Flaherty has had a really disappointing shortened season, but the Cardinals have hope he will return to his 2019 form, a year in which he finished fourth in Cy Young voting. Elder statesman Adam Wainwright will get the ball in a win or go home Game Three. The Cardinal of 15 years has really surprised with a 3.15 ERA this year, and everyone knows his outstanding postseason track record. I would not be surprised if the Cardinals advance on the backs of these starters and the backend of their bullpen. The postseason track record of Andrew Miller cannot be understated. Tyler Webb, Austin Gomber, and Genesis Cabrera have all had good years and are other left-handed options out of the bullpen. Also look for Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes to get big outs out of the bullpen. The Cardinals lineup has been pretty brutal all year long, with the team sporting a miserable .694 OPS, the lowest of any NL playoff team. Still, Paul Goldschmidt has been very good. Honestly, outside of that, there are not many positive things to say about the Cardinals’ offense. Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJong, and Tyler O’Neill have all been bad at the plate this year. However, most of these guys have a track record of success and the Cardinals may flip the switch at any time. The pitching gives St Louis a chance, even if the offense does not do much. If anybody has the ability to make a deep playoff run after having such a crazy season, the Cardinals are the team. Remember, this is the franchise that won the World Series after winning just 83 games in 2006.

This is a really exciting time to be a baseball fan with so much uncertainty and so many teams that can make deep runs. The table is set for one of the wildest Octobers ever. Good luck to your teams and enjoy!

All stats used via Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, ESPN