Author: Hugo Belisario (Weinberg ’20)
“The AL Central is a joke.”
Before the start of the 2019 season, this was many baseball fans’ consensus regarding a division with three teams in the midst of a rebuilding process (Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals).
The Cleveland Indians, coming off their third-straight division title, were projected to dominate once again by reclaiming the division by a margin of 11 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins. The Tribe spent the majority of their offseason cutting payroll by trading away All-Star catcher Yan Gomes (2.5 WAR in 2018) and refusing to present a qualifying offer to outfielder Michael Brantley, who signed with the defending AL West champions Houston Astros. Only the Reds and Orioles spent less than Indians’ 2.5 million in free agency, which they used for Marwin Gonzalez, as well as other minor additions. Cleveland’s front office was relying on lights out pitching by arguably the best rotation in baseball (Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber). According to FanGraphs, ZiPs had the staff achieving a 71-41 record with 3.47 ERA in 911 innings for 20.5 WAR. WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, attempts to estimate a player’s total value relative to a freely available player, such as a minor league free agent. An enormous amount of trust was also placed on Francisco Lindor (7.7 WAR) and Jose Ramirez (7.9 WAR) to lead the offense and build on their phenomenal 2018 campaigns. Besides these exceptional players, the other 18 players on the 25-man roster were as valuable as those on teams in the rest of the division. However, the Indians seemed to have no concerns about this as the second-best team in the division, Twins, had lost 13 and 17 games against them in each of the past two years. Minnesota was viewed as a “hypothetical contender” against an Indians team that made no strides towards improving during the offseason.
Fast forward to June 2019, however, and the Minnesota Twins are in first place, 9.5 games above the Indians with a record of 47-24 (as of June 18th). Everything, and I mean everything, has been going well for the Twins. This includes pitching, a recurring weakness for the franchise in the past decade after the departure of 2-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana in 2008. Although they only added two pitchers (Martin Perez and Blake Parker), the pitching staff has improved in large part due to the addition of pitching coach Wes Johnson and bullpen coach Jeremy Heffner, who have brought a new emphasis on the use of biomechanics and analytics to increase their pitchers’ velocities and diversify their pitch repertoires.
The pitching staff as a whole has decreased their use of fastballs from 59.1% (4th in MLB) the previous season to 51.9% (20th in MLB) so far this season, while also increasing curveball use from 12.4% to 15.1%.
After many years of being one of the worst strikeout teams in the majors, the Twins’ staff is finally above the league average in strikeout rate.
Twins pitchers are striking out opposing batters better than they have in the past.
It has not only been the revitalization of the pitching staff that has vaulted the Twins into the AL division lead. An explosion of offense from almost everyone in the lineup has been key to their success as well. It was known before the season that the Twins’ lineup was going to produce runs consistently and in large quantities. According to The Ringer, new guys such as Nelson Cruz (133 wRC+) and Jonathan Schoop (119 wRC+) have proven to be great pickups throughout the first two months of the season.
That being said, the most shocking performances have come from shortstop Jorge Polanco (172 wRC+, 162 adjusted-OPS) and catcher Mitch Garver (219 wRC+, 203 adjusted-OPS), while Eddie Rosario (130 adjusted-OPS) and Max Kepler have provided the power with 13 and 9 home runs, respectively. The Twins currently rank first in OPS+ against sub-.500 teams with 141, but are also tied for 20th against neutral or winning teams with 90. This could mean that when they are exposed to better quality pitching from better teams they tend to regress.
An emergence of improved pitch framing, a measure used to determine a catcher’s effect on whether a pitch is called a ball or a strike, from Twins’ catchers has been crucial after being ranked 23rd in the analytic last year and giving up about 30 runs during the past 10 years. The pitching was quite honestly abysmal over that span. Catcher Mitch Garver has stepped us as not only an offensive force but a defensive one as well.
Catcher Mitch Garver has become an irreplaceable player for the Twins, both offensively and defensively.
On the other side, the Indians rank 29th in OPS+ against losing teams and 24th against the winning teams. Injuries have plagued the Tribe in the early going of the season with starters Mike Clevinger missing time until June with a strained back and a struggling Corey Kluber out indefinitely with a fractured forearm. A late return from the Injured List by Francisco Lindor and an ice-cold start from last year’s AL MVP candidate Jose Ramirez have also contributed to this poor start.
Will the Twins be able to keep up the act and snatch the division from the Indians?
This is a possibility. If they take advantage of the fact that they are projected to have the easiest remaining schedule in the majors with 40% of the schedule dedicated to the Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. Lack of depth in the pitching rotation is a major concern with sixth starter Kohl Stewart delivering mediocre performances in his only couple of starts and Michael Pineda coming back from Tommy John surgery. If the Twins desire to establish themselves as serious playoff contenders, they need to think about signing Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel or both to aid the rotation led by Jose Berrios and relievers Taylor Rogers and Trevor May. Currently, the Twins have a 72% chance to win the division according to FanGraphs and a 57% chance compared to a preseason 15% chance on Baseball Prospectus.
The Twins have definitely been entertaining to watch whether its the performances given by players mentioned before, the spectacular defensive plays by Byron Buxton, and the gracefulness of fan-favorite Willians Astudillo. Meanwhile, the Indians have been struggling this season, but we as fans are well aware of what that team is capable of accomplishing. It will be intriguing to see which team comes out on top come October. Either way, the AL central is no longer a “joke” but has become one of the more exciting and competitive divisions in baseball.
Willians Astudillo, who made his debut with the Twins last year, has quickly become a fan-favorite at Target Field.
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