All posts by yni957

The Rising Sun

I don’t’ quite remember when I began to wonder how World War II would look like from the Japanese point of view.  In Chinese history books and contemporary TV shows, Imperial Japan is often portrayed as an evil empire run by crazy generals and barbarous soldiers who were utterly incompetent on the battlefield but overtly obsessed with atrocities.  Thanks to these concerted efforts, many Chinese believe that version of Japan had never died; it just lurks behind the scenes, ready to reemerge as soon as we let down our guard.  Little wonder then, in Chinese social media, anti-Japanese sentiment is like a tinderbox ready to be ignited by any trivialities taken by Chinese internet users as an insult to their national pride.  I remember the years when I feel the same way toward Japan as today’s “little pinks” (小粉红).   It is a strange feeling, an unhealthy blend of fear, anger, hatred, humiliation, and self-pity. At some point, I realize, like every story of this proportion, there must be another narrative and interpretation.  The desire to read the story from the other side is what drew me to John Toland’s “The Rising Sun”.  I was not disappointed.

In Toland’s telling, the expansion of Imperial Japan in East and Southeast Asia and her conflict with the West, culminated in the Pacific War, was rooted in the aspiration to free Asia from exploitation by the white man.  The Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere was not only an imperial propaganda, but also an ideology many idealists in Japan genuinely subscribed to.  However, as with almost any ideology, Toland noted, it “was taken over and exploited by realists”.   Toland did not believe the Pacific war was inevitable.  He documented vividly the hesitancy, strife and desperation of the Japanese government leading up to the attack on Pearl Harbor.  Indeed, even the most feverish militarists in Tokyo, including Hideki Tojo and Isoroku Yamamoto, were reluctant to go to war against the U.S., and certainly few thought they could win. Nevertheless, the war broke because “mutual misunderstanding, language difficulties”, as well as “Japanese opportunism and irrationality, and “American racial prejudice, distrust, ignorance, rigidity, and self-righteousness.”  Toland was critical of the West, especially the British Empire, for its hypocrisy and racism, to which he no doubt assigns some blame for the outbreak of the Pacific War.   “The West had two standards of freedom,” he writes, “one for itself and one for those east of Suez,… (being) convinced that Asians did not know what was best for themselves and world security”.   He quoted Churchill’s physician, Lord Moran, who wrote in diary,

“To the president (Roosevelt), China means four hundred million people who are going to count in the world of tomorrow, but Winston thinks only of the color of their skin.”

I am sure Churchill was not the only white man of his time who had a fetish for skin color and considered yellow peril a real threat.

Several things I learned from the book had made an indelible impression on me.  The most noteworthy is perhaps Japanese soldiers’ unflinching loyalty to the emperor and indifference to sufferings and death.  Brutality seems a way of life to a Japanese soldier.  He understands to be captured by enemy is to disgrace not only himself but his comrades, family, and village.  Therefore, his motto is “Always save the last round for yourself”, as demanded in his code of conduct.   “Fight to the last man” is not just a show of resolution, but an order to be taken literally. If there is a difference between foot soldiers and generals in this regard, it is that generals usually prefer more honorable hara-kiri (切腹自杀)in the true spirit of bushido (武士道).

The last Kamikaze (神风) mission was in fact flown by the inventor of Kamikaze warfare, Admiral Matome Ugaki, who was the Chief-of-Staff for Yamamoto and the Commander-in-Chief of the 5th Air Fleet at the time of Japan’s surrender. General Kuribayashi – whose story was dramatized in a 2007 Hollywood movie entitled “the letters from Iwo Jima” – committed hara-kiri (according to one account) after leading a ferocious defense of Iwo Jima, which he knew was a suicide mission from the beginning. He was a man of letter and believed “America is the last country in the world Japan should fight”. On the tiny island of Carregidor in Philippines, Toland writes, “5,000 Japanese defenders fought for eleven days against an aggressive, overwhelming parachute and amphibious assault. All except 20 died.”   They had no chance to make even a slight difference strategically, and it would not have mattered whether they had fought for eleven days or eleven hours. Indeed, eleven hours was how long 76,000 Philippine-American soldiers had fought before surrendering to a Japanese army of similar size three years earlier, on the same island.   Even Japanese civilians frequently prioritize death over surrender.   In the Battle of Saipan, “almost 22,000 Japanese civilians – two out of three – perished needlessly”. Many committed suicides, killing not just themselves but whole families, including children.

Why do Japanese seem to have such a high tolerance for mental and physical distress?  How could they so readily give up their lives even when, to a bystander, their ultimate sacrifice appears to no purpose?  These questions fascinated me.   Toland did not address them head-on; but if you read between lines, he has offered two clues: faith and eschatology.

Like Jesus to Christians, the emperor is the Source of Faith to Japanese.  The Imperial Way (kodo) defines Japanese morality based on the unconditional obligation to the emperor.  Most Chinese would have a hard time to understand this relationship between Japanese people and the emperor.  Through Chinese history, an emperor’s claim to the Mandate of Heaven was supposedly contingent on his being a just and able ruler.  This well-meaning principle, of course, had produced endless bloody struggles for the throne, by ambitious men who thought, often prematurely, their turn to represent Heaven had arrived. In Japan, the emperor is worshiped as God, and his reign is eternal and irreplaceable. Without the emperor, all Japanese would be without country, without parents, homeless.

According to Toland, the Japanese eschatology is best expressed in the word sayonara – it is often translated as “good-bye” but its precise meaning is in fact “so be it” (就这样吧).  To Japanese, life is ever shifting on an erratic path.  Every moment could bring abrupt changes, even death.  Thus, they say sayonara to everything every moment, which could be their last.   Paradoxically, the acceptance of death at any moment gave the Japanese “the strength to face disaster stoically and a calm determination to let nothing discourage or disappoint”.   They are always ready to take whatever life throws at them with a sayonara, so be it!

I imagine many Chinese readers would find Toland suspiciously lenient on the hideous war crimes perpetrated by Imperial Japan against other Asian countries, especially China.   This is not surprising given the book’s perspective is decisively a Japanese one.  Perhaps Toland’s wife, who was born and raised in Japan, further tilted the balance in Japan’s favor.  In any case, I agree with Toland on one thing: there is no such thing as evil people, only evil ideology. Imperial Japanese is not the first people poisoned by a lethal combination of faith and extreme ideology. Nor would it be the last.

 

Hyperpath Truck Routing

My work in this area was resulted from my collaborations  with an online freight exchange platform in China between 2017 and 2019.  When I began to work with the firm in 2017, through Xiaobo Liu at SWJTU,  it was called Truck Gang (货车帮).  Soon after that it was merged with Yunmanman (运满满),  and the merged company was named Manbang (满帮).   When Manbang eventually went public in 2021, it was valued at nearly $24B.    The results reported in this paper were produced using data provided by Truck Gang, and the paper was published in Transportation Science a couple of years ago, co-authored by my former student John Miller and Xiaobo.


Abstract:  Online freight exchange (OFEX) platforms serve the purpose of matching demand and supply for freight in real time. This paper studies a truck routing problem that aims to leverage the power of an OFEX platform. The OFEX routing problem is formulated as a Markov decision problem, which we solve by finding the bidding strategy at each possible location and time along the route that maximizes the expected profit. At the core of the OFEX routing problem is a combined pricing and bidding model that simultaneously (1) considers the probability of winning a load at a given bid price and current market competition, (2) anticipates the future profit corresponding to the current decision, and (3) prioritizes the bidding order among possible load options. Results from numerical experiments constructed using real-world data from a Chinese OFEX platform indicate that the proposed routing model could (1) improve a truck’s expected profit substantially, compared with the benchmark solutions built to represent the state of the practice, and (2) enhance the robustness of the overall profitability against the impact of market competition and spatial variations.

Redesign transit to cope with COVID

Our paper on transit design for COVID was finally published in Transportation Research Part A.   You may also read a previous post about this paper.

The idea was initially conceived at the peak of the first wave (April 2020) and the first submission to TR-A  was made later that year (November).  In this particular case, the review process was excruciatingly long. The second round alone took more than six months, and yielded  no actionable comments.  Anyway, I am glad it ended with a positive note for Hongyuan  – this was his first publication in my group.

Why We Sleep

If you’ve ever wondered why you are on track to lose nearly a third of your life to sleep, or are not entirely happy about your relationship with sleep, then this book is a must read.  I first heard about it from Sam Harris’s interview of the author, Matthew Walker, a professor of neuroscience and psychology at UC Berkeley, and was immediately intrigued by their conversation. At least this time, my curiosity did pay off, as I have learned so much that I did not know before.

Our sleep consists of two kinds, the kind with dreaming, called rapid-eye movement (REM) sleep, and the kind without, called non-REM (NREM) sleep or deep sleep. They serve different functions. Basically, NREM sleep helps clean the brain, consolidate and retain memory, and therefore is critical to learning and retaining knowledge, as well as maintaining cognitive ability.  Persistent lack of NREM sleep is a known risk factor for Alzheimer’s (old timers) disease.  REM sleep, on the other hand, is closely related to emotion and social behaviors.  The newborns of heavy-drinking mothers are more likely to suffer from mental illness—including autism—when they grow up, partly because their REM sleep are disrupted by alcohol.

Sleep is controlled by two processes: circadian cycle (生物钟)and sleep pressure.  The circadian cycle is an internal clock regulated by melatonin (脑白金), whose main function is to tell the brain and body “it is dark and please get ready for bed”.  Next time when you take melatonin to mitigate your suffering from a jet-lag, remember that message, and that message alone, is what you are getting. The sleep pressure is created by another chemical called adenosine, which begins to build up in your brain once you wake up and which can only be reduced by sleep.  Drinking coffee, however, can resist sleep pressure because caffeine helps block the receptor cells in the brain designed to “feel” the pressure.   Two facts about caffeine are especially noteworthy – sorry coffee drinkers, but please read.  First, “caffeine is one of the most common culprits that keep people from falling asleep easily and sleeping soundly thereafter”. Second, if you cannot get through the morning without caffeine, then most likely you have “self-medicated your state of chronic sleep deprivation”.

Walker is eager to tell everyone who would listen that getting sufficient sleep, at least seven hours a day, is of pivotal importance to human health, neurologically and physiologically. Human beings routinely give up sleep in exchange for activities deemed more productive, valuable, or enjoyable.  In some cultures, self-inflicted sleep deprivation is an emblem of work ethic, if not a badge of honor.   Walker repeatedly warns us of the grieve danger of this chivalrous attitude toward sleep. His book documents, sometimes with gruesome details, how sleep loss could inflict devastating, even lethal, effects on the brain and the body, causing or worsening countless disorders and diseases, ranging from anxiety, depression and bipolar disorder to cancer, diabetes, obesity, and infertility.   Remember, 99% of humans cannot function optimally without at least seven-hour-sleep a day; so obviously your odds of being among that 1% (who has a sub-variant of a gene called BHLHE41) is not as good as you might like.

Let me end with a laundry list of Dos and don’ts. First and foremost, neither sleeping pill nor alcohol can help you sleep better.   As sedatives, these substances give you not so much good sleep as induced unconsciousness.   In other words, you may think you have slept, but you would not get any benefits associated with sleeping.  Here are a few things that do help: (i) reduce caffeine and alcohol intake; (ii) avoid exposure to LED light before sleep (including from screens of your phones, tablets, and computers), (iii) have a cool bedroom (around 18 degree Celsius);  remember, to initiate sleep, your core temperature need to drop about 1 degree Celsius, and finally (iv) stick to a regular bedtime and wake-up time as much as possible.

Bi-criteria traffic assignment

The traffic assignment problem (TAP) aims to find the distribution of agents—travelers, goods or data—in a network according to certain rules that govern how the agents make choices and move in the network. This problem lies at the heart of numerous applications, ranging from infrastructure planning to travel demand management. In these applications, it is often important to differentiate the agents according to the governing rules.  The trade-off between two attributes by agents with heterogeneous preferences is ubiquitous in route choice, traffic assignment, congestion games and beyond, and it leads to the bi-criteria traffic assignment (BiTA) problem concerned herein.  In this study, we develop a novel  algorithm to solve a continuous version of the BiTA problem. See Abstract for details.

This is a joint work with my former visiting PhD student and  Postdoc Jun Xie (currently Associate Professor at Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China) and Qianni Wang, an MS student currently at Northwestern University. The paper is currently under revision at Operations Research; a preprint can be downloaded here.


Abstract: This paper studies the continuous bi-criteria traffic assignment (C-BiTA) problem, which aims to find the distribution of agents with heterogeneous preferences in a network. The agents can be seen as playing a congestion game and their payoff is a linear combination of time and toll accumulated over the selected path. We rediscover a formulation that enables the development of a novel and highly efficient algorithm. The novelty of the algorithm lies in a decomposition scheme and a special potential function. Together, they reduce a complex assignment problem into a series of single boundary adjustment (SBA) operations, which simply shift flows between “adjacent” efficient paths connecting an origin-destination (OD) pair using a Newton method. The SBA algorithm is capable of producing highly detailed path-based solutions that hitherto are not widely available to C-BiTA. Our numerical experiments, which are performed on networks with up to forty thousand links and millions of OD pairs, confirmed the consistent and significant computational advantage of the SBA algorithm over the Frank-Wolfe (FW) algorithm, the widely-held benchmark for C-BiTA. In most cases, SBA offers a speedup of an order of magnitude.  We also uncovered evidence suggesting the discretization-based approach—or the standard multi-class formulation—-is likely to produce far more used paths per OD pair than C-BiTA, a potential computational disadvantage. Equipped with the proposed algorithm, C-BiTA, as well as its variants and extensions, could become a viable tool for researchers and practitioners seeking to apply multi-criteria assignment models on large networks.

Paired-Line Hybrid Transit

Paired-Line Hybrid Transit was the first in a series of “hybrid-transit” studies conducted by my group using a stylized design model.  This line of work, funded by an National Science Foundation between   2013 and 2016, was initiated by Peng Chen in his PhD thesis.  The main idea is to pair a demand-adaptive service with a fixed-route service so that the transit system can leverage the advantages of both while avoiding their drawbacks.  The paper was published in Transportation Research Part B in 2017.

For preprint, check  Hybrid Transit System Design_Journal_2.0


Abstract: This paper proposes and analyzes a new transit system that integrates the traditional fixed-route service with a demand-adaptive service. The demand-adaptive service connects passengers from their origin/destination to the fixed-route service in order to improve accessability. The proposed hybrid design is unique in that it operates the demand-adaptive service with a stable headway to cover all stops along a paired fixed-route line. Pairing demand-adaptive vehicles with a fixed-route line simplifies the complexity of on-demand routing, because the vehicles can follow a more predictable path and can be dispatched on intervals coordinated with the fixed-route line. The design of the two services are closely
coupled to minimize the total system cost, which incudes both the transit agency’s operating cost and the user cost. The optimal design model is formulated as a mixed integer program and solved using
a commercially available metaheuristic. Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the demand adaptive paired-line hybrid transit (DAPL-HT) system with two related transit systems that may be considered its special cases: a fixed-route system and a flexible-route system. We show that the DAPL-HT system outperforms the other two systems under a wide range of demand levels and in various scenarios of input parameters. A discrete-event simulation model is also developed and applied to confirm the correctness of the analytical results.

A theory of justice

Until I come across John Rawls’ book, I have never thought the word Theory can be associated with Justice (公正).  I was reluctant to commit my leisure time to reading “theories” (my job gives me plenty already), but my better judgement was overridden by the charisma of the loaded buzzword of our time.  Don’t get me wrong: the book is worth reading.  However, getting through five hundred pages of hard (and dry) reasoning and argument—with few stories or quips to catch a break—was quite a mental exercise.  Well, here is what I have learned.

A theory of justice is a set of principles designed to resolve the conflict of interests arising from human cooperation.  These principles form the basis for regulating social behaviors and arranging political institutions.   Rawls’ theory, which earned him the reputation as one of the most influential political philosophers of the 20th century, is dubbed “Justice as Fairness”.   It consists of three principles. The first principle (A) guarantees an equal right to “most extensive” basic liberties.  The other two state social and economic inequalities are just if and only if they (B) are attached to positional goods open to all under conditions of equal opportunity, and (C) maximize primary goods enjoyed by the least advantaged members of society.  The three principles follow a lexical order: the equal liberty principle (A) takes priority, followed by the equal opportunity principle (B) and the difference principle (C).

At first glance justice as fairness seems decisively egalitarian.  Rawls advocates compensation for the “undeserved inequalities” from birth and natural endowment.  Under the difference principle (C), “society must give more attention to those with fewer native assets and to those born into the less favorable social positions”.  An example is spending greater resources on “the education of the less rather than the more intelligent”.  In fact, Rawls has gone so far as to assert the willingness to make an effort is also contingent upon social circumstances. In other words, even inequalities caused by laziness may be undeserved and thus warrant social redress.    To be sue, Rawls does not support eradicating inequalities all together. Instead, inequalities are to be tolerated in so far as they benefit everyone, especially the most disadvantaged.    Moreover, positional goods should be distributed based on the equal opportunity principle, and if doing so leads to inequalities, so be it.  Thus, Rawls seems to prefer meritocracy to equal-outcome when it comes to positional goods. There is a catch though: everyone must “have reasonable opportunity to acquire the skills on the basis of which merit is assessed”.  Needless to say, compensations are necessary to meet such a requirment.

Rawls contends justice as fairness is preferred by moral persons at the original position.   He assumes moral persons know what is right (i.e., have a sense of justice) and what constitutes their own good.  As such, moral persons are entitled to equal justice. As Rawls puts it, “those who can give justice are owed justice”.   The original position, on the other hand, wraps everyone with a veil of ignorance. From behind this veil, nobody knows their social status or natural asset.  As a result, they cannot and will not tailor the principles to their own advantage.   Rawls’ moral persons are not altruistic, but mutually disinterested and rational.  This means they (i) strive to maximize their own good, as defined by the rational plan of life, and (ii) are indifferent to the good of others, in both absolute and relative terms.    Rawls’ faith in the better angels of our nature is admirable, but I am not sure our cravings for justice can resist the incessant onslaught of envy, vanity, and self-serving biases.   A society built on justice as fairness may be ideal, even optimal. But will it be stable?  Perhaps that’s what Benjamin Franklin had in mind when he proclaimed, “A republic if YOU CAN KEEP IT!”

Rawls staunchly opposes utilitarianism, the idea that a society is property arranged when its institutions maximize the net balance of welfare.  He believes “each person possesses an inviolability founded on justice that even the welfare of society as a whole cannot override.”   Therefore, justice “denies that the loss of freedom for some is made right by a greater good shared by others.”   These words ring so true as I am, like many of my friends are, trying to understand what the heck is going on in Shanghai.

Mitigating TNC-induced traffic congestion

While the e-hail service offered by TNCs is widely credited for boosting productivity and enhancing level of service, its adverse traffic impact in already-congested city centers has drawn increased scrutiny.   Several cities have started to implement  policies aiming to mitigate the traffic impact induced by excessive TNC operations.   The purpose of this study is to support such policy analysis by developing a model that captures the complex interactions among various stakeholders (riders, drivers and the platform) and those between them and the regulator.   Please read the abstract below for main findings.

The paper was recently published in Transportation Research Part A.   A preprint can be downloaded here.


Abstract: This paper analyzes and evaluates several policies aiming to mitigate the congestion effect a Transportation Network Company (TNC) brings to bear on an idealized city that contains a dense central core surrounded by a larger periphery. The TNC offers both solo and pooling e-hail services to the users of public transport. We develop a spatial market equilibrium model over two building blocks: an aggregate congestion model describing the traffic impact of TNC operations on all travelers in the city, including private motorists, and a matching model estimating the TNC’s level of service based on the interactions between riders and TNC drivers. Based on the equilibrium model, we formulate and propose solution algorithms to the optimal pricing problem, in which the TNC seeks to optimize its profit or social welfare subject to the extra costs and/or constraints imposed by the congestion mitigation policies. Three congestion mitigation policies are implemented in this study: (i) a trip-based policy that charges a congestion fee on each solo trip starting or ending in the city center; (ii) a cordon-based policy that charges TNC vehicles entering the city center with zero or one passenger; and (iii) a cruising cap policy that requires the TNC to maintain the fleet utilization ratio in the city center above a threshold. Based on a case study of Chicago, we find TNC operations may have a significant congestion effect. Failing to anticipate this effect in the pricing problem leads to sub-optimal decisions that worsen traffic congestion and hurt the TNC’s profitability. Of the three policies, the trip-based policy delivers the best performance. It reduces traffic congestion modestly, keeps the TNC’s level of service almost intact, and improves overall social welfare substantially. The cruising cap policy benefits private motorists, thanks to the extra congestion relief it brings about. However, because other stakeholders together suffer a much greater loss, its net impact on social welfare is negative. Paradoxically, the policy could worsen the very traffic conditions in the city center that it is designed to improve.

Blueprint

To the heatedly debated nature vs. nurture question, Plomin’s Blueprint gives an unnuanced answer: it is the nature that makes you who you are.  According to the book, DNA explains half of the differences among us, in both physical and psychological traits.  At first glance, this verdict seems to leave at least the other half to the impact of nurture or the environment.  But here is the catch: the environmental effects are not only strongly correlated with DNA, but also unsystematic and unstable.  In other words, there is very little we can do about them. Your weight, for example, is almost 70% heritable (i.e., 70% of the differences in weight among a population come from genetical differences).   To cite another example that many might dismiss as a reductio ad absurdum, even your likelihood of getting a divorce has a heritability of 40%.

These findings have fascinating implications for society at large, especially parenting and education.  For one thing, those who are obsessed with getting their kids into Ivy League should know schools contribute only 2% to educational achievements.   In other words, excellent students produce excellent schools, not the other way around.  More importantly, parents have much less systematic impact on their children’s outcomes than they are led to believe.   Tiger moms should not expect their kids to be “blobs of clay that can be molded however they wish”.   In fact, kids are not even quite a blank canvas on which you can paint your favorite pictures. They are more like a canvas with a blueprint that your paint brush could either refine or ruin.

The book is an easy and enjoyable read, and the DNA literacy it tries to provide is well delivered and much appreciated.  Yet, I was sometimes taken aback by the tacit fatalism in the book. and wondered how it might undermine our commitment to good parenting.  I am also deeply troubled by the prospect of using genomes as a scientific fortune teller, to label and classify human beings at birth.

Nevertheless, the book does convince me that we are all fundamentally shaped by our DNA, more so than any other factors.  To me, this means life is like a constrained optimization problem for which we may choose the objectives but not the constraints.  That is, your free will can still decide where you land, so long as the target is within the feasible set.

Planning EV charging infrastructure

This paper was our first on sustainability-related topics.  As mentioned in the Acknowledgment, it was  inspired by  Professor David Boyce’s 2012 trip from Chicago, IL to Madison, WI.  At the time, he just bought a Nissan Leaf (one of the first successful battery electric vehicle models, with a whooping range  of 70 miles!), and was eager to prove it can be used for long-distance travel.     Due to the limited availability of charging stations back then, however, he was forced to spend one night at a hotel that was less than 20 miles from Madison, turning a four-hour trip to an overnight one.

David’s adventure got me into the EV infrastructure planning, which eventually led to this paper, and a PhD thesis completed by Mehrnaz Ghamami.  The core idea  of this paper is the consideration of the tradeoff between battery cost and charging stations in EV infrastructure planning. That is, from a system point of view, how should social  resources be allocated between manufacturing larger batteries and building more charging facilities?  Check the abstract below for our main findings, and you can also download  Preprint  here.

The paper was published in Transportation Research Part B in 2013.


Abstract: The transition to electric vehicles (EV) faces two major barriers. On one hand, EV batteries are still expensive and limited by range, owing to the lack of technology breakthrough. On the other hand, the underdeveloped supporting infrastructure, particularly the lack of fast refueling facilities, makes EVs unsuitable for medium and long distance travel. The primary purpose of this study is to better understand these hurdles and to develop strategies to overcome them. To this end, a conceptual optimization model is proposed to analyze travel by EVs along a long corridor. The objective of the model is to select the battery size and charging
capacity (in terms of both the charging power at each station and the number of stations needed along the corridor) to meet a given level of service in such a way that the total social cost is minimized. Two extensions of the base model are also considered. The first relaxes the assumption that the charging power at the stations is a continuous variable. The second variant considers battery swapping as an alternative to charging. Our analysis suggests that (1) the current paradigm of charging facility development that focuses on level 2 charging delivers extremely poor level of service; (2) the level 3 charging method is necessary not only to achieve a reasonable level of service, but also to minimize the social cost, (3) investing
on battery technology to reduce battery cost is likely to have larger impacts on reducing the charging cost; and (4) battery swapping promises high level of service, but it may not be socially optimal for a modest level of service, especially when the costs of constructing swapping and charging stations are close.