All posts by yni957

汪精卫其人其诗

汪精卫其人其诗

从小到大,不论在哪里看到汪精卫这三个字,我都会条件反射似地脑补出“遗臭万年”,“身败名裂”, “卖国求荣”这些字眼儿。除了大汉奸的名头,我还听说汪是坊间传闻的民国四大美男子之一,娶了个很彪悍且同是大汉奸的老婆叫陈璧君。然后呢? 就没有然后了。没有记错的话,中学历史教科书中对他着笔甚少,少到连做汉奸的来龙去脉都语焉不详,仿佛这件事虽然惊世骇俗、可耻可恨,但左不过是跳梁小丑螳臂挡车的一幕闹剧,不值得祖国的花朵们劳神分心。至于他的人生,一个叛国投敌、罪行昭彰的独夫民贼,人生的故事就算再跌宕传奇,还值得花时间去了解吗?

第一次开始对汪精卫感兴趣是发现他写过一首流传甚广的《被逮口占》:

慷慨歌燕市,从容作楚囚。

引刀成一快,不负少年头。

我最开始无法相信一个大奸大恶之人能写出这样视死如归、回肠荡气的绝笔诗,甚至怀疑过是别人捉刀之作,情状颇似《围城》中方鸿渐写给苏小姐的道歉信里所言,“见名章隽句,竟出诸伧夫俗吏之手,惊极而恨,遂厚诬以必有蓝本。” 惊愕归惊愕,对先入为主的人来说,这首诗跟汪精卫的不和谐之处其实也不难解释。或者他当时年轻气盛,一时冲动谋刺满清王公,失手被捕自知不免,乃故作激昂语,后侥幸得脱,心性大变,加上权力场中几度沉浮,终于蜕变成贪生怕死,利欲熏心的无耻之徒,也是有的。

再后来,某日在微信群里偶然聊起中日战争,有位群友推荐了汪兆铭的《双照楼诗词稿》 (有余英时、叶嘉莹两位先生作序的2012版,以下简称《双照楼》)。很惭愧,我当时还不知道汪兆铭即汪精卫—精卫是他早年追随孙中山闹革命时,写文章用的笔名。中国旧体诗是我唯一勉强能读懂的诗,但对于看诗集,我无论兴趣还是学养都不够。幼时随祖父启蒙读过些唐宋诗、魏晋文,很喜欢,但那都是精选的历代大家扛鼎之作,言浅意深,脍炙人口。从头到尾通读某位诗人的集子,我从来没想过尝试。最后决定《双照楼》值得一读有两件原因。

第一件是余、叶二位的序。余英时的长序,虽自言不是为汪翻案,但是言语间对汪人品才具的评价极高。至于对汪“投敌卖国”的分析,二位先生似乎都认同胡适的观点。胡适说汪“一生吃亏在他以‘烈士’出身,故终身不免有‘烈士‘的complex『复杂』。” 叶嘉莹在她的短序里说汪有“终身不得解脱的一种‘精卫’情结”。 余先生则加上了“汪精卫在本质上应该是一位诗人”的判断,当然更要命的仍是,“这位诗人一开始便走上’烈士‘的道路,因而终生陷进了权力的世界。这样一来,他个人的悲剧便注定了。”

第二件,便是那位群友顺手拈来,出自《双照楼》中的一首七绝《送别》:

把酒长亭杯已空,行人车马各西东。

枫林不共斜阳去,自向荒郊寂寞红。

中国旧诗有种叫“意境”的神奇力量,可以倏然而至,如子弹般击中你,让你感受到发自灵魂深处的震撼,但却无法言喻。不知为何,这首诗给我的冲击,比《被逮口占》还要强。王国维说,“有境界则自成高格,自有名句”。《送别》营造的“境”—远去的友人,空灵的酒杯,寂寞枫林,独立斜阳—与一种卓尔不群、孤标傲世的“格”水乳交融,浑然天成,造诣之高,已堪与盛唐名篇比肩。也许是做科研落下的职业病,我向来对有争议的人物和话题充满好奇。有什么比一个千夫所指但才华横溢的诗人兼政客更有争议性呢?我下决心要把《双照楼》从头读一遍,试试能不能从中发现一个真实的汪精卫。

《双照楼》里收集诗词的数量我没作统计,但应在数百之间。以我对旧诗的陋见,写不出值得一读的评论。个人最大的体会是汪诗的自然真诚,以及倾注其中的强烈情感。如果说“言志”是写诗的终极目标和最高境界,那这一点我觉得他近乎完美地达到了。钱钟书认为汪是做秀,规劝他“莫将愁苦求诗好”(注一),学生实不敢苟同。钱老当年也许童心偶发,闲笔戏题。但正如余英时所说,他不仅所见不明,且大失公允。叶嘉莹称汪精卫是“用生命来写作自己之诗篇“的”真正的诗人;为《双照楼》写后记的汪梦川赞汪诗“雅正纯粹、绝无俗态”,均为持正之论,于我心有戚戚焉。汪精卫的诗到底告诉我们,他是一个怎样的人呢?

首先,汪精卫绝非贪生怕死之辈。

汪被捕后坚称自己为主谋,决意要为同案之人开脱(注二)。他在狱中羁押了快两年,写了不少诗,其中不乏大义凛然的篇章。《被逮口占》共有四首五绝,除了人们耳熟能详的第三首,第四首也极好:

留得心魂在,残躯付劫灰。

青燐光不灭,夜夜照燕台。

“残躯付劫灰”本来是诗人的愿景,但他大概没想到在自己身后,中国人民倒是帮他一字不漏地兑现了(注三)。另外印象深刻的一首是悼念挚友胡汉民的五律(注四)

马革平生志,君今幸已酬。

却怜二人血,不作一时流。

忽忽余生恨,茫茫死后忧。

难禁十年事,潮上寸心头。

艳羡战友马革裹尸的夙愿业已达成,而自己却不能随他同赴国难,悲叹余生无涯,捱不尽的后死之忧(也算一语成谶)。字字是血,动人心魄。中国文人绝笔诗历史上不少。最出名的当数南宋文天祥的“人生自古谁无死,留取丹青照汗青”,写尽了为国捐躯的民族英雄们最常见的一种心理。类似风格的我知道还有南明张煌言的“惭将赤手分三席,敢为丹心借一枝”(注五)。但以青史留名、与先贤比肩来为精忠报国、死而后已的大义背书,以“格”而论,似乎既没有“引刀成一快”洒脱,也不如“留得心魂在,夜夜照燕台”纯粹。当然,谭嗣同“我自横刀向天笑,去留肝胆两昆仑”,不仅笑对死亡,还看到了另一种选择同样高尚的可能,在境界上似乎又更上一层楼。汪精卫出狱之后,心理上已经死过一次,不知道后来是不是也悟到了这层境界,堪破生死玄关,以至于三十年后决心要试试另一条路究竟有多难走。

其次,汪精卫热爱生活,也善待别人。

汪写羁旅行役、游玩题赠的小诗,别开生面,充满生活情趣。比如这首他的得意之作,

初阳如月逗轻寒,咫尺林原成远看。

记得江南烟雨里,小姑鬟影落春澜。

在给胡适的信中专门提到,确是佳构。1926年春节游白云山记下在农家所见,道作

村儿绿袴女红妆,分得黄柑著意尝。

却道城中风物好,不知身在白云乡。

朴实真切,回味悠长。二十年代在法国写的《游日内瓦湖》,颔联作“暂留残照天边树,尽抹微云雨后山”;另一首《夜泛》中间四句,“风平波去懒,云碎月行忙。萤火出林大,渔灯在水长”。这类炼字清奇,读来余香满口的句子,在他的集子里,所在多是,不胜枚举。

汪精卫一生大都在路上奔波,光在中国和西洋之间就来回过至少六次 (注六),至于打了败仗亡命东洋、革命要钱去南洋募捐,更是家常便饭。那时候去趟欧洲的旅程要用月来计算,所以他集子里收了大量船上写的诗。比如这首1919年去法国途中写的《舟中晓望》就琅琅上口:

朝霞微紫远天蓝,初日融波色最酣。

正是暮春三月里,莺飞草长忆江南。

1915年从上海去南洋筹划讨袁途中写下的《寄冰如》(冰如是陈璧君的字),则是羁旅行役结合爱人同志的代表作:

一去匆匆太可怜,只余巾影淡于烟。

风帆终是无情物,人自回头舟自前。

汪精卫和陈璧君当年同船南下,陈在香港登陆改乘火车回广州归宁,汪则继续同船前往南洋,这首小诗想来是他看着夫人远去的背影写下的。当时汪精卫32岁,和冰如已育有一子一女,但二人伉俪情深,恩爱溢出纸面。所谓河东狮吼云云,不知是否也是好事之徒捕风捉影。汪夫人在《双照楼》里一直保持很高的出镜率,汪先生除了船上寄冰如,还有飞机上寄冰如,坐在家里想冰如,以及陪冰如四处游玩等等。最好的一首的我觉得是《高阳台 冰如导游西湖》,其词曰

风叶书窗,霜藤绣壁,萧疏近水人家。
初日钩帘,遥青恰映檐牙。
湖山已,似曾相识,况旧游,人倚平沙。
最勾留、泉冷风篁,石醉烟霞。
湖光不被芳堤隔。但东西吹柳,远近浮花。
水澹山柔,轻烟晕出清华。
夷犹一棹凌波去,乱野凫、飞入蒹葭。
夜如何?
皓月当头,照澈天涯。

前面写景华美妩媚,极尽渲染烘托之能事,颇得婉约之风,但收尾的“皓月当头,照澈天涯”八个字画龙点睛,同时营造出身临其境的体验和无穷的想象空间,远非一般名家的婉约词所能望其项背。

汪精卫爱夫人也爱女儿。去世一年前在飞机上写给三女文恂的诗,有“四野春光融作水,千山朝气蔚成霞。 老牛含笑看新犊,雏鸟多情哺倦鸦”四句,舐犊之情,跃然纸上。他也珍惜朋友,《舟夜》中“良友渐随千劫尽“的感慨,《虞美人》里“故人热血不空流”的悲怆,都在向先他而去的战友们致敬。

他四十年代为义妹方君瑛忌辰写的悼亡诗,中间四句是“孤悬破碎山河影,苦照萧条羁旅人。南去北来如梦梦,生离死别太频频”。真情仍在,风骨犹存,但诗中的阳光明媚早已转为孤寒凄苦。钱钟书说他的诗“似觉南风有死声“,描述这个时期的风格大体不差。

其三,汪精卫性格温和,反对滥用暴力。

汪精卫早年思想激进,支持以暴力革命的手段来救亡和唤醒民众。但是,清政府对他的宽大处理和辛亥革命的和平解决似乎让他对暴力的态度发生了变化。他后来在政治生涯中的几次重大关头都选择了怀柔而非暴力。二次革命反对孙中山借宋教仁之死发动战争,1927年反对蒋介石借分共大开杀戒,最后一次当然是抗战最低潮的时候选择放弃抵抗。汪精卫不相信“枪杆子里面出政权”。身边好友曾苦劝他一定要做“军事家”才能成就大事,但他对此毫无兴趣(注七)。

他作于1939年的《金缕曲》,描写战乱之下的国家,山河破碎,遍地新冢,寡妇孤儿,泪眼相对,其词凄婉悲切,读来如闻其声,如见其泪。词曰,

绿遍池塘草。
更连宵、凄其风雨,万红都渺。
寡妇孤儿无穷泪,算有青山知道。
早染出,龙眠画稿。
一片春波流日影,过长桥、又把平堤绕。
看新冢,添多少。
故人落落心相照。
叹而今、生离死别,总寻常了。
马革裹尸仍未返,空向墓门凭吊。
只破碎山河难料。
我亦疮痍今满体,忍须臾、一见欃枪扫。
逢地下,两含笑

汪精卫这类感时伤怀,悲天悯人作品中的巅峰之作,应该是《朝中措—重九登北极阁》(注八)

城楼百尺倚空苍,雁背正低翔。

满地萧萧落叶,黄花留住斜阳。

阑干拍遍,心头块垒,眼底沧桑,

为问青山绿水,能禁几度兴亡?

这首词写于1943年重阳,余英时分析当是汪氏词中绝笔。最后两句套用元好问“故国江山如画,醉来忘却兴亡”。但“能禁几度兴亡”六个大字,道尽古今仁人志士,在我中华兴亡铁律面前,那种深沉的痛惜和无奈,与原词的消极避世相比,高下立现。

最后,汪精卫骨子里是一个孤高自许的士人。作为政治家,他有独立思想,有原则底线,不随波逐流,但作为领袖人物,意志似不够坚定,时常首鼠两端。

汪精卫大概是孙中山最忠实也最信任的追随者,不仅是孙的接班人,甚至连 “革命尚未成功,同志尚需努力” 的总理遗嘱都出自他的手笔。但是汪好几次公开反抗孙的主张。刺杀摄政王载沣一事,他与持反对意见的孙中山、黄兴多次辩论,最后一意孤行,决意赴死。二次革命前他主张依法解决宋教仁遇刺案,甚至亲身前往广州呼吁革命党人放下武器,与袁世凯和谈。护法运动后,孙中山在广州成立军政府分裂民国,对此他也不以为然。维基百科说,一战后广州军政府曾打算让汪代表南方政府去参加巴黎和会,但他“对军政府不感兴趣,没有接受”。到二十年代孙中山转投沙俄,汪虽然赞成联俄联共,但反对接受共产党员以个人身份加入国民党。值得一提的是,除了刺杀这一次,汪最终都没有把自己的主张坚持到底,而是选择了服从领袖。

他和蒋介石二十年明争暗斗,分分合合的历史非常复杂,但根本上可以归结为他看不惯蒋那一套帝王术,也不认同蒋动辄以暴力解决纷争。

1927年四一二事变,蒋介石联合国民党西山会议派准备对共产党大开杀戒,汪坚决反对,与陈独秀在上海发表《联合宣言》支持容共,并不惜到武汉另立中央,谴责蒋武力清党行为,甚至宣称“反共即是反革命”。在各方压力之下,汪最后被迫退让,同意反共,并在年底尘埃落定之后宣布隐退,远走法国。

到1929蒋介石与各路军阀混战进入高潮,他又被反对派请回国内主持反蒋阵容,但最后因为张学良的东北易帜一败涂地,到30年底被迫亡命日本。未几蒋介石跟胡汉民因为约法问题闹翻脸,汪精卫力挺昔日同盟会老友,大骂蒋介石“暴横日甚,言之痛心”,二人遂在广东成立军政府,再次与南京政府对抗,并准备于31年九月北伐。

九一八事变的爆发促使汪精卫放下前嫌,再次与蒋合作,并于1932年初出任行政院院长,主持抗战中的政务。维基百科称汪在这一时期“抗日态度坚决,积极备战”。同年八月,汪精卫因为东北军不战而弃东北跟张学良翻脸,一再敦促他下野,并自请辞行政院长职;两个月后他查出患有肝硬化,再加上“外交、财政问题诸感棘手”,遂辞职赴柏林养病。越明年汪归国复职,开始主张并在蒋介石支持下主持对日和平交涉,自此越行越远。从1933年支持何应钦签订《塘沽协定》开始,他就开始成为主战派的眼中钉,背上卖国贼的骂名,并因此在1935年遇刺。虽然大难不死,但从此枪伤定期发作,而留在身体里的子弹,九年后到底还是要了他的命。

汪精卫性格的某些方面确实像极了他《送别》诗里那一片骄傲的枫林,不求追逐落日,宁愿放逐荒郊。他集子里像《送别》这类托物明志的诗不少。《咏菊》中说,“生也不逢时,落叶满天地。… 忍寒向西风,略见平生志。….  一花经九秋,未肯便憔悴。 ….  相逢应一笑,异代有同契”。以菊自许,但语气陈恳,清新自然,既不颓废,也无霸气,让人读来肃然起敬。《咏腊梅》里的 “古色最宜邀冻石,孤标只合耦冰仙”,表达的也是一肚皮不合时宜。

汪精卫反复多疑,徘徊摇摆的个性,在后期的诗中表现得淋漓尽致。比如他的名作《题易水送别图其二》:

少壮今成两鬓霜,画图重对益彷徨。

生惭郑国延韩命,死羡汪锜作鲁殇。

有限山河供堕甑,无多涕泪泣亡羊。

相期更聚神州铁,铸出金城万里长。

中间两联连用生典,在他的诗里并不多见。“生惭郑国延韩命” 自比战国后期为秦国修渠的韩国人郑国,明里说自己很惭愧,实则为解释曲线救国是有“延韩命”的苦衷 ;“死羡汪锜作鲁殇”又回到烈士主旋律,懊悔自己当年没能像鲁国的汪锜那样,马革裹尸以励国人。颈联画风再一转,安慰自己山河有限,国难当头,与其感伤堕甑、泪泣亡羊,不如砥砺前行。到结尾的“铸出金城万里长”,掷地有声,词藻气度俱佳,但虚张声势,言不由衷,境界到底落了下乘。

前面提过的《舟夜》,写于1939年,是汪精卫和周佛海等人在越南跟日本人谈判后,拟回上海推行和平运动,途中船上所作。后面四句曰,

良友渐随千劫尽,神州重見百年沉。

淒然不作零丁叹,检点平生未尽心。

颈联并无半分对自己铤而走险换来的“和平局面”的向往,反倒全是对神州人才凋敝,又将沉沦百年的无奈和感伤。但末句一转,似乎国事仍有转寰的余地,平生报国之心未尽,则残生尚有用武之地,未可轻掷。一首好诗,但写得如此纠结,不难想象诗人内心的挣扎和矛盾,嘴上虽说“不作零丁叹”,但心里大概是把惶恐滩走过好多遍了。

卿本佳人 奈何作贼?

这是所有读完汪精卫的人心头绕不开的终极追问。为什么? 他为什么要在抗战最艰苦的1938年,冒天下之大不韪,出走越南,去跟日本人和谈,而且一条道走到黑,最后被政府以叛国罪通缉,被党除名,也绝不悔改?

让我们先来做排除法。

第一,从汪精卫的性格看,我们知道他搞和谈肯定不是因为怕死。首先,他打小就悍不畏死。其次,到38年的时候,他已经年过半百,而且因为枪伤的缘故,活着了无生趣。为了半条残命卖国,似乎很不划算。最后,不搞和谈也不需要他上战场送死。跟着别人喊坚持抗战的口号成本并不高,他甚至可以带头喊。

第二,他和陈璧君出洋如家常便饭,万里来去自如。仅从这个细节看,他家不是一般的殷实。因此,贪财聚敛大概也不成其动机。

第三,从他三十年代不止一次主动要求下野的举动看,汪对权力的野心有限。至于指挥军队纵横捭阖,前面说了,他更是全无兴趣。

排除了贪生、求财和夺权这三点,剩下还有几种解释。

首先是汪精卫跟蒋介石的个人恩怨。汪精卫和蒋介石从孙中山去世之后就争斗不休,汪以孙中山接班人的身份,到抗战前只能勉强和蒋介石分庭抗礼,其后更是降格为蒋的副手,可谓屡战屡败,每况愈下。余英时以为 “以汪在党内的历史而言”,作蒋的副手是“相当让他难堪的“,并断言”蒋的唯我独尊必须对汪之出走负起很大的责任“。这个观点稍有诛心之嫌。也可能汪看不起蒋的人格操守,由此质疑蒋的决策是否出于公心。结果,蒋越是主战,汪越是认为他动机不纯。但不管出于何因,汪如此决绝地议和,一定程度上是受了蒋的某种影响,当无疑问。

其次,汪精卫觉得议和才是存国力、救黎民的最佳方案。事实上,那时候国内主和派并非只有汪一人,私下里觉得战必亡、和为上的人很多。客观而论,1938年欧战还没开打,抗日前景如何,国民政府在苏联、中共和日本三者之间,到底怎样取舍才能最好地平衡各方政治利益,最大限度保护民众,我相信除了毛主席和事后诸葛,没人敢说自己有把握能看清楚。但是,碍于舆论的高压,普通人怎敢公然把求和这种大逆不道的卖国言论说出口,平白给自己换顶汉奸帽子戴上?(注九)。

其三是胡适先生总结的“烈士情结“。简单地说, 汪精卫觉得自己非常人,应行非常事。普通人怕汉奸帽子,汪精卫一个民族英雄怎会把它放在眼里?我们的英雄诗人加职业革命家在这个万马齐喑的至暗时刻,“检点平生未尽心”,想起谭嗣同 “去留肝胆两昆仑”的敦敦教诲,念着当年发下的“残躯赴劫灰”的誓言,带着“我不入地狱谁入地狱”的执念,终于义无反顾地走上这条遗臭万年的单行道。

最后,汪精卫大概低估了在全面侵华已成事实之后再行和谈对中华民族形象和感情的伤害。汪一贯特立独行,从不轻易放弃自己的立场。他怼过孙中山,反过蒋介石,另立中央也不只一次。也许他觉得,孙中山跟日本人密谈过,拿着德国人的钱去广州搞军政府,最后还把老毛子请到家里来改组国民党,就这样也没耽误他老人家成就国父的一世英名。战和之间的分歧,也不过是人民内部矛盾,最多像当年的分共风波,或者中原大战,意见相左就先单干,就算再被开除党籍(注十),最终人们还是会理解他拳拳报国的一片苦心,还会请他回来的。

当然,最后这一次,他错了,而且错得一塌糊涂。事实证明,在民族国家时代,民族大义是意识形态领域里无敌的存在。一切敢于藐视它锋芒的人,无问东西,不论因果,都会被斩得魂飞魄散,永世不得翻身。

我儿子小时候特别不喜欢看书,但是不知何故对R. J. Palacio写的《Wonder『奇迹』》情有独钟。因为这个缘故我对书中的情节很熟悉,里面有句箴言印象深刻:

When given the choice between being right or being kind, choose kind.

我想了很久,觉得可以译为“宁入歧途,勿失慈悲“,就用这一句为汪先生作结吧。

 

聂宇

2023年12月4日, Wilmette, Illinois.

 

注释

注一:钱钟书有首作于1942年的《题某氏集》,

扫叶吞花足胜情,钜公难得此才清。微嫌东野殊寒相,似觉南风有死声。

孟德月明忧不绝,元衡日出事还生。莫将愁苦求诗好,高位从来谶易成。

这首诗后来被广泛认为是读《双照楼》后写的诗评。钱先生喜欢挖苦知识分子矫揉做态。《围城》里汪处厚续弦后,早已想好“眼前新妇新儿女,已是人生第二回”的佳句,只恨新太太尚未生养,一时用不上。所谓“莫将愁苦求诗好”,无非是讽刺汪精卫也不过是“为赋新词强说愁”罢了。

注二:这段故事维基百科中未见记载,我是听人民大学张鸣教授讲的,说他和黄复生(四川隆昌人,算是我半个老乡)被捕后都坚称自己是主谋,对方是从犯,让主审官颇为感佩。另外,汪精卫行前已报必死之心,有《致南洋同志书》称:“此行无论事之成败,皆无生还之望。即流血于菜市街头,犹张目以望革命军之入都门也。”

注三:据维基百科记载,日本投降后,1946年1月21日何应钦奉命将汪墓炸毁,并将遗骨送往清凉山火葬场火化,骨灰被抛到长江里。

注四:汪精卫在狱中听说胡汉民在黄花岗起义中牺牲后写下三首五律,这是其一。后来发现是误传。

注五:南明张煌言的《入武林》一诗作:

家亡国破欲何之?西子湖头有我师。日月双悬于氏墓,乾坤半壁岳家祠。

惭将赤手分三席,拟为丹心借一枝。他日素车东浙路,怒涛岂必属鸱夷。

注六:12年辛亥之后去法国读书,13年二次革命失败之后去法国避难,19年巴黎和会前后,27年因为分共和蒋介石闹翻后出走法国,还有32年底和35年底两次去欧洲治病。

注七 据维基百科,“汪与吴稚晖在巴黎时,曾经有一次,吴氏手里捧著一顶军帽,很严肃地献给汪,他说:“你戴上吧!今后要革命,要救国,要实现主张,要贯彻主义,一定要依靠武力,我希望你成为一个军事家,来领导同志。你如能挺身以当大任,我第一个就愿意向你磕头。”“但汪表示他对军事没有兴趣。

注八 “眼底沧桑”,正版应为“眼底风光”。余英时考证,汪本拟作“沧桑”,后以过于颓废改为“风光”, 余以为“沧桑”与全词格调更合,故从其原意。

注九 余先生的序里提到,陈寅恪即持此论。另外汪精卫在河内发表呼吁终止抗战的“艳电”之后,曾致电孔祥熙解释动机:

弟此意乃人人意中所有,而人人口中所不敢出者。弟覺得緘口不言,對黨對國,良心上,責任上,皆不能安,故決然言之。前此秘密提議,已不知若干次,今之改為公開提議,欲以公諸同志及國人,而喚起其注意也。

余先生说汪精卫所言“弟此意乃人人意中所有,而人人口中所不敢出者”,确为事实。

注十: 据维基,在1939年因为投日被开除党籍之前,汪1925年曾被西山会议派开除党籍,以及在1930年中原大战期间被开除党籍。

The song of Achilles

I read The song of Achilles about two years ago, wrote a short review then but never got the chance to post it here.  This is one of the few fiction books I have read cover to cover  since I turned 40 – thanks to my daughter’s recommendation.


My 11-year-old daughter fell in love with Greek mythology lately and has filled her bookshelf with the likes of Percy Jackson and Trials of Apollo.  Frustrated with my complete ignorance of the subject, she tried repeatedly to get me to read some of her books.  She marveled at The Song of Achilles all the time and insisted I must read the book because it is simply “too good” to pass over.  Eventually, I caved in despite my reluctance—novels have largely ceased to interest me, let alone a novel about Achilles, whose story has become a cultural cliché, even in China. Who could forget about the heels that his mom famously failed to wash in the magic spring?

It turns out I enjoyed the book more than I thought I could.  Madeline Miller made me constantly guess the theme of the book, but she managed to outwit me at every turn.  Initially, it seems that the book is about the love between two young men: Achilles and I the narrator (Patroclus). Then, I thought the focus is the insanity of the Trojan war, and how it transforms an innocent boy into a monstrous killing machine.   At one point, Miller mocked nationalism and advocated humanitarian principles, when she proclaimed through Chiron (a centaur) “nations were the most foolish of mortal inventions” and “no man is worth more than another, wherever he is from”. Eventually, I realize the central plot may be the ancient conflict between a jealous mother and her son’s spouse (a son-in-law in this case).  Achilles’s mom, Thetis, refused to endorse his relationship with Patroclus till the very end, even after they are buried together.   In the eyes of the jealous mom, Patroclus is an unattractive mortal unworthy of Achilles, a man who cannot bear an offspring for him, and above all someone who committed the unforgivable sin of sharing the love of her son.  But more fundamentally, Thetis and Patroclus fought hard to bring about a different Achilles in the book: Thetis wants a god-like, ruthless warrior, while Patroclus prefers an empathetic, creative human.  It seems to me this discrepancy, not the Prophecy, finally sealed the tragic fate of the couple.

Having finished the book, I must say I don’t quite understand why my daughter and her friends like it so much.  It is a book written for adults, with contents that I imagine some parents might find objectionable for kids of her age.  I know for a fact in my generation such a book would be considered off limits for 11-year-old. But, hey, we live in a different age, don’t we?

Is competition for losers in bikesharing?

The rise and fall of the bikesharing industry in China offers a cautionary tale about the risks of an unregulated market with a low entry barrier. It is well known that, while low entry barriers can promote competition and innovation, they may also lead to higher market volatility and potential challenges in achieving profitability due to intensified rivalry . There are also limited economies of scale to be had, making it exceedingly difficult to establish a monopoly. As Peter Thiel noted, “competition is for losers”‘ in such markets and good entrepreneurs should simply stay away from them.   However, writing off the bikesharing industry as unprofitable cannot be the only story here. After all, bikesharing has a genuinely positive societal impact and should have its place in many of our cities that are haunted by the disease of auto-dependency. The question is what, if anything, can be done to foster a healthy bikesharing market that is attractive to both users and private investors.  We set up to answer this question here.  You may download a preprint here, or read the abstract below.


Abstract: We model inter-operator competition in a dockless bikesharing (DLB) market as a non-cooperative game. To play the game, a DLB operator sets a strategic target (e.g., maximizing profit or maximizing ridership) and makes tactical decisions (e.g., pricing and fleet sizing). As each operator’s payoff and decision set are influenced by its own decisions as well as those of its competitors, the outcome of the game is a generalized Nash equilibrium (GNE). To analyze how competition may shape the choice of strategic targets, we further augment the game framework with a ranking scheme to properly evaluate the preference for different targets. Using a model calibrated with empirical data, we show that, if an operator is committed to maximizing its market share with a budget constraint, all other operators must respond in kind. Otherwise, they would be driven out of the market. When all operators compete for market dominance, Moreover, even if all operators agree to focus on making money rather than ruinously seeking dominance, profitability still plunges quickly with the number of players. Taken together, the results explain why the unregulated DLB market is often oversupplied and prone to collapse under competition. We also show this market failure may be prevented by a fleet cap policy, which sets an upper limit on each operator’s fleet size.

Solomon’s Ring

Legend has it that King Solomon’s ring, also known as the Seal of Solomon, conferred on him the ability to command the supernatural and to speak with animals.  Despite the enticing title, the book has nothing to do with King Solomon and his famous ring, or Jewish history, or the Israel-Palestine conflict (since this topic is on everyone’s mind these days…).  Instead, it consists of interesting stories about the animals that the author raised to observe their behaviors.  Widely considered “the father of ethology”, Konrad Lorenz won Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1973 for his foundational contributions to the study of non-human animal behaviors.  King Solomon’s Ring, published in 1949 and written for a popular audience, remains his best-known book.  Lorenz was a controversial figure due to his association with Nazism, which apparently came to light only after his death.  According to Wiki, not only was Lorenz a Nazi, but he served as a psychologist in the notorious Office of Racial Policy during the war.  In his application for the party membership, Lorenz pledged to devote “his whole scientific work to the ideas of the National Socialists”.  That said, I found no racial slurs, dog-whistles or anything that can be construed as remotely antisemitic or hateful in the book.   Quite the contrary, the book was a relaxing and enjoyable read that made me giggle more than any book in recent memory. Beyond fascinating facts about animals, the reader will also be confronted with thought-provoking questions concerning human nature and the relationship between men and animals.

Lorenz described many species of animals that he kept in and around his home, ranging from fish and birds to dogs and monkeys.  Notably, he did not keep these animals in captivity but instead let them – to the extent possible – freely wander around on his property, even in his office.  In some sense this was the mandate of his work, since only free ranging animals can “be themselves” and thereby reveal their natural behaviors. However, to Lorenz these animals were more than just a research subject.   He lived with them, bonded with them, and cherished their company.   He saw humanity in these animals – or animal traits in humans, depending on your perspective – because humans, in a quite literal sense, are their descendants.   As a result, his writing adores and humanizes them.

I was never a big fan of animals. Growing up in a small and poor city in China, where few families keep pets in their home, I was naturally disposed to be afraid of most animals, including dogs and cats.  Yet, I think even I would find the gaze of Lorenz’s beloved dog, named Tito, irresistible.  Tito was an Alsatian (or German Shepherd), famous for being “exaggeratedly faithful”.    Lorenz recalled that Tito would remain lying at his feet for hours and hours as he works at his desk, and

she was far too tactful to whine or to call attention to herself by the slightest sign. She just looked at me. And this gaze of the amber-yellow eyes in which was written the question “Are you ever going to take me out?”, was like the voice of conscience and easily penetrated the thickest walls.

Lorenz injected a delightful sense of humor into his storytelling that is truly infectious. I remember several instances when I laughed so loudly in my office that people in the hallway could probably hear me.   His vivid account of the territory-setting battle between two stickleback fish was a great example.  He wrote, describing how the distance from a male fish’s nest is a reliable predictor for the strength of not only his will, but also his actual ability to defeat his rival,

In the immediate neighborhood of his nest, even the smallest male will defeat the largest one…. The vanquished fish invariably flees homeward and the victor, carried away by his successes, chases the other furiously, far into its domain. The further the victor goes from home, the more his courage ebbs, while that of the vanquished rises in proportion. Arrived in the precincts of his nest, the fugitive gains new strength, turns right about and dashes with gathering fury at his pursuer. A new battle begins, which ends with absolute certainty in the defeat of the former victor, and off goes the chase again in the opposite direction.

On another occasion, Lorenz saw a father jewel fish accidentally swallow, at the same time, his own baby—a duty he routinely performs to save his children from drowning—and an earthworm, his favorite food. The father thus faced a dilemma, as in his mouth were two different things “of which one must go into the stomach and the other into the nest”. Lorenz recalled with amusement what unfolded next,

The fish stood stock still with full cheeks, but did not chew. If ever I have seen a fish think, it was in that moment! … For many seconds he stood riveted and one could almost see how his feelings were working. Then he solved the conflict in a way for which one was bound to feel admiration: he spat out the whole contents of his mouth: the worm fell to the bottom, and the little jewel fish, becoming heavy in the way described above, did the same. Then the father turned resolutely to the worm and ate it up, without haste but all the time with one eye on the child which “obediently” lay on the bottom beneath him. When he had finished he inhaled the baby and carried it home to its mother.

Using his jackdaw bird colony, Lorenz repeatedly explores what appears to be an important theme of the book: the similarities and differences between human and animal behaviors.

He observed how jackdaws teach their youth about the danger of the enemy by making a rattling sound in response to a dangling black object in sight. This is remarkably “human” for two reasons. First, knowledge is passed on to the next generation through “learning” rather than “inheritance”. Second, like jackdaws, humans also fall victim to such blind, instinctive reactions (the black object). I am certain Lorenz had his former Fuhrer in mind when he asked,

“Do not whole peoples all too often react with a blind rage to a mere dummy presented to them by the artifice of the demagogue?”

Lorenz observed that a “married” jackdaw couple would not only take each other to love and to cherish till death do they part, but also, apparently, maintain “the glowing fires of the first season of love” throughout their marriage.    Even after many years, he wrote, “the male still feeds his wife with the same solicitous care, and finds for her the same low tones of love, tremulous with inward emotion, that he whispered in his first spring of betrothal and of life”. At first glance such a relationship feels amazingly human; but if you pause and think again, you realize it is in fact quite nonhuman, if not superhuman.  Although humans may live in a life-long marital union, Lorenz lamented, they tend to forget “the thrilling enchantment of courtship’s phrases entirely” as time goes on, and only perform the ritual of their marriage “with the mechanical apathy common to other everyday practices”.

It is well known that a definite order – by which each animal is afraid of those above them in rank – exists in many social animals.  Lorenz’s jackdaw colony is no exception. The interesting twist is that a female jackdaw can acquire a higher rank by marrying a male who ranks above her – a social mobility that is, unfortunately, not available to a male (again, how very human this is!).  If the bird marries the king, she will be granted by every member of the colony the status of a queen.  When this happens, the news of the marriage, and hence the promotion of the wife, spreads quickly in the colony. The funniest part of the story is how the newly crowned queen, having suddenly risen far beyond her own station, would “conduct herself with the utmost vulgarity” when she encounters other jackdaws whom she must look up to only a few days earlier:

She lacked entirely that noble or even blasé tolerance which jackdaws of high rank should exhibit towards their inferiors. She used every opportunity to snub former superiors, and she did not stop at gestures of self-importance, as high-rankers of long standing nearly always do.

Establishing a pecking order is one way by which social animals resolve conflicts without suffering excessive casualties. Lorenz mentioned another mechanism that I shall call the surrender’s inhibition.  According to this law, a victor emerging from a bloody battle for dominance would be inexplicably “forbidden” from hurting the loser, as long as the latter surrenders, i.e., offering to his adversary the most vulnerable part of their body as a submissive gesture. Humans evidently have inherited the habit of making submissive gestures (e.g., kneeling and bowing) when facing a dominant aggressor. Unfortunately, such an appeal to mercy is not as failproof among humans as in the animal world. Homer’s heroes, noted Lorenz, often killed supplicants “without compunction”.  Bai Qi, a Qin Kingdom general, killed 400,000 surrendered soldiers after the Battle of Changping, a prelude to the kingdom’s brutal campaign to unite China under imperial rule.  Mongols, of course, had an abhorrent reputation for indiscriminately slaughtering entire cities of people when they faced even the slightest resistance during their conquests. Nor do we have to go back to primeval or medieval times for the evidence of our species’ sub-animal barbarity.  About three weeks ago, on October 7th, 2023, Hamas militants invaded Israel and killed more than 1,000 civilians, including many children and elderly – many of the victims, I imagine, would have begged for their lives, but to no avail. Why?

Lorenz argues that the surrender’s inhibition is a result of evolutionary adaptation.  That is, for a species to survive, it must develop a social inhibition to prevent the abuse of its lethal weapon which could endanger the existence of the species.  However, we humans make our weapons “of our own free will” rather than grow them on our bodies as dictated by nature.     Because human weaponry developed so rapidly relative to the time scale of evolution, our instincts could not keep up with it, leading to a lack of adequate inhibition in its usage.  There is a certain truth to this argument.  However, humans also have far more reasons to murder the members of their own species than the imperative of survival. Ideology, for example, offers a powerful motive for mass killing infidels, heretics, or those who happen to have an intolerable identity.  In the end, Lorenz expressed optimism that humans can learn from animals, that if anyone slaps us on the right cheek, we should, as Bible teaches us, turn to him the other cheek also.  This is not so that our enemy may strike us again, explained Lorenz, “but to make him unable to do it”.  I admire his faith in humanity and wish he was right, but I am deeply skeptical whether this age-old wisdom would have saved anyone who was killed by Hamas fighters on October 7th.

RIVER published.

The last paper I wrote with  Kenan Zhang, who graduated two years ago and is now joining EPFL as Assistant Professor, was finally published in Transportation Research Part B last week.  The paper first went on-line at SSRN in December of 2021.  So, it has been in the review process for nearly two years, during which it was reviewed by three different journals.   I am relieved the paper is finally in print; I know Kenan was exhausted by the lengthy back-and-forth with reviewers and editors.  Rewarding as the experience may be, one can only take so much for each paper without being demoralized.

The above link should work for two months.  After that, if you don’t have access to the journal, you may find a preprint here.

Is college worth it?

Today’s NYT’s Daily podcast reports some shocking statistics about Americans’ fading faith in higher education.  In 2010, about 98% American parents want their kids to go to college. Today, that number stands at roughly 50%. During the same period, the number of college enrollments dropped from about 18 million to less than 16 million, despite a 7% increase in total population.

So why is the dramatic change of heart? The podcast offers three reasons, if my memory serves me well.  First, college education no longer makes as much economic sense as it used to.  While college-goers in 1960s and 1970s enjoyed both wage premiums and wealth premiums, life-time wealth accumulation have significantly declined, in some cases disappeared altogether, for younger generations, partly because college has become so much more expensive. Second, colleges are increasingly perceived as liberal hotbeds that could barely tolerate conservatives, much less welcome them.  Third, higher education reinforced a deeply held belief that American institutions are rigged to favor elites, whose kids have dominated the campuses of the best colleges.  At the gate of these colleges, the children of the “working class” are forced to play a meritocracy game that they have no chance to win.  So, they quit.

Surprisingly, this well-reasoned analysis does not mention the intrinsic value of education. While college education does produce a piece of paper that certifies one’s worth in the job market, it also provides something that is hard to articulate and measure but is vital to the betterment of individual lives, as well as the functioning of civilized society at large.  For over a half century, the higher education system in the US has been very successful selling to the parents the notion that college is a wonder investment with only upsides.   The current revolt by the parents suggests it might have overplayed that marketing strategy.

Team of Rivals

Doris Goodwin’s ‘Team of Rivals’ was the first presidential biography I ever read.  Biography was not among my favorite genres, but I did have a desire to learn more about Abraham Lincoln.  He is widely considered the greatest American president. In fact, to many even that title seems an understatement.  Tolstoy once wrote that Lincoln ‘was bigger than his country—bigger than all the Presidents together…and as a great character he will live as long as the world lives’.    Like most people, I’ve heard about the highlights of Lincoln’s remarkable life as I passed through grade schools: the self-made lawyer and politician haunted by family tragedies, the epic struggle to end slavery while forging a truly United States of America, and the ultimate sacrifice for the cause at the zenith of his career.  Still, I am not quite sure how to make Tolstoy’s melodramatic assessment. The book partially solved the puzzle for me.

Goodwin’s narrative is constructed around, and often from the perspectives of, Lincoln’s key cabinet members who were once his rivals:  Salmon Chase (Secretary of Treasure), Henry Seward (Secretary of State), Edward Bates (Attorney General), and Edwin Stanton (Secretary of War). The first three men ran against him for the nomination of the Republican party, and Stanton, when serving with Lincoln as co-counsel in a lawsuit, not only questioned the then country lawyer’s legal expertise but openly ridiculed him as ‘a gorilla and an imbecile’.  As Goodwin follows Lincoln’s footsteps from the humble origins to the poignant end, she recounts many stories of these rivals, often quoting extensively from their public speeches and private letters.  This helps unlock the mystery in Lincoln’s persona that ‘led countless men, even old adversaries, to feel bound to him in admiration’.

Lincoln ‘possessed extraordinary empathy’ and a ‘melancholy temperament’, wrote Goodwin.  These qualities might be the result of the tragic losses he endured from an early age – at 26, he had already lost three women dearest to his life: his mother, his only sister, and his first love. Empathy can be a curse ‘in a world environed by cruelty and injustice’ because, as Goodwin noted, the fellow-feeling for the misery of others inevitably causes pain and suffering.  It also sometimes made him appear weak and lacking the will to do what must be done in difficult situations. His attorney general confided to a friend that Lincoln, despite ‘very near being a perfect man’, was ‘unfit to be entrusted with the pardoning power’, because he too easily succumbed to touching stories and women’s tears. Yet, empathy was a powerful tool for Lincoln to gain the respect, trust, and devotion of others through understanding their motives and desires.  It also rendered him a remarkably magnanimous man, demonstrating an incredible capacity to forgive even those who had opposed, wronged, and betrayed him.

Goodwin also lauded Lincoln’s `literary genius’ and his mastery of rhetorical power.   His ability to explain intricate concepts through storytelling, coupled with a sharp sense of humor, was unparalleled among his contemporaries.  In the strictest sense of the word, Lincoln might not be as great an orator as Seward, who could deliver stirring, completely improvised speeches to a crowd for hours.  Lincoln was much more careful with his words, but he perfected ‘a language of enduring clarity and beauty’ that made him an extremely persuasive and effective communicator.

Lincoln believed in ‘the better angels of our nature’, a term coined in his first inaugural address.  He once told a friend that he preferred to believe in the possibility of human perfection, when asked about whether George Washington was a perfect man.  His entire life may be seen as the pursuit of becoming that perfect, inspiring human being he envisioned. It is the unwavering conviction to ‘engrave his name in history’, Goodwin noted, that underscores Lincoln’s greatness, carrying him through the dreary childhood, the political failures, the personal tragedies, the disintegration of his beloved Union, as well as the devastating military defeats in the early phase of the Civil War.

But Lincoln was also a realist.  Unlike Chase and Seward, who had advocated for radical abolitionist policies on moral grounds, Lincoln carefully charted a moderate path confined within the limits set by public opinion on slavery. His famous Emancipation Proclamation was timed and configured to be perceived by the people of the North as an indispensable instrument to win the war and preserve the Union, rather than as a necessary step to end slavery once and for all.   Goodwin sees nothing wrong for politicians to go along with public opinion, even if that means they must slightly bend their moral compass.  If anything, that expediency made Lincoln ‘the most truly progressive man of the age’, because he neither ‘wasted strength in premature struggles’ with the public nor waited to be ‘dragged by the forces of events’.  To be sure, Lincoln did owe much of his success to his exceptional ability to read and follow the will of the people.  But that does not make him ‘the most truly progressive’.  Based on what I gathered from the book, Lincoln is more of a pragmatist, a shrewd politician, maybe even a ‘political genius’ (As Goodwin likes to call him). Yet, he does not seem to have the burning conviction to reshape the world in the image of his ideology that many a great man of history possesses.  That difference, I think, is precisely what sets Lincoln apart from (or above, depending on how much you love him) that league of great men.

I was always curious about Lincoln’s view on race.  According to the book, Lincoln was against slavery but did not believe in racial equality.  He said the physical difference between whites and blacks would ‘probably forever forbid their living together upon the footing of perfect equality.’  As a result, he was not in favor “of making voters or jurors of n****, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry.”  Nor did he just say these things to get the white people’s votes.  Lincoln was a passionate advocate for colonization, the idea of aiding freed slaves to establish a colony in Central America. To sell this proposal to the country, he even convened a conference of freed slaves at the White House, where he said in his opening remarks, “you and we are different races. We have between us a broader difference than exists between almost any other two races.”  By today’s standard, therefore, Lincoln is a textbook racist. Should harboring racism in 19th century diminish his greatness?  I imagine Tolstoy and Goodwin would dismiss such a thought as quintessential presentism. But many from today’s political left would probably disagree with them.

‘Team of Rivals’ is a thick book of nearly 1000 pages, of which about a quarter were notes.  It was meticulously researched and elegantly written, though at times, the lengthy quotes and extravagant details about the lives of the people in Lincoln’s outer orbit feel a bit excessive. If you don’t want to read the whole book, do not miss the last chapter, in which Goodwin describes how Lincoln met his destiny.  I finished that chapter on an airplane – I still remember having tears in my eyes that I had to hastily cover when a flight attendant asked me if I needed a drink. That rarely happened to me.   I shall end with a quote taken from the very end of the book.

“With his death, Abraham Lincoln had come to seem the embodiment of his own words—’With malice toward none; with charity for all’. The deathless name he sought from the start had grown far beyond Sangamon County and Illinois, reached across the truly United States, until his legacy, as Stanton had surmised at the moment of his death, belonged not only to America but to the ages—to be revered and sung throughout all time.”

晚清七十年

唐德刚在抗战期间就读国立中央大学,师从郭廷以,后来负笈北美,跟胡适有师生之谊。他在哥伦比亚大学取得博士学位之后,先后执教于哥大和纽约城大。《晚清70年》当是他90年代初从城大荣退之后,把诸多旧作整理编纂而成的一部作品。也许因为这个原因,全书乍一看像是一本按照主题时序编排的史学论文集。最明显的证据是,几乎每一章结束处均有“原文发表于某某杂志某年某期”的声明 ––大概是为了解决版权问题。这样松散的结构,草蛇灰线、伏脉千里且不要提,不同章节中,文字差相仿佛的地方就不少,类似的史料、观点重复出现也常见到。另外老先生又喜发议论,臧否人物,尤好把国共两党几位著名领袖,与晚清诸公如曾左李张,袁孙康梁等,拉在一起横量纵比,嬉笑怒骂。其中虽不乏真知灼见,但是有时也给人牵强罗嗦,乃至夹带私货之感。能坚持看完,我觉得唐先生的书胜在三点。其一,民国学究腔的白话文,配上唐氏风格的插科打诨,有种独特的阅读体验。其二,作者治史数十年,教学相长,不论故实轶事还是研究心得,都信手拈来,信息量大。其三,像我这样对这段历史的了解几乎完全停留在中学教材的人,会发现它视角新颖,某些方面甚至颠覆认知。

全书讲述晚清从鸦片战争(1840年)打开国门,到辛亥革命(1911年)之后土崩瓦解,差不多正好70年,故名。叙事以这70年间发生的五个重大事件为线索,即太平天国(1851-1864)、甲午海战(1894)、戊戌变法(1898),庚子拳乱(1900)以及辛亥革命(1911)。大体上,唐先生把每个事件都视为千年帝制下,中国社会变革转型的一次努力。这些努力为什么都失败了呢?下文简述之。

太平天国加上捻军,前后动荡20年,生灵涂炭,伤亡数以千万,影响波及整个富庶的南中国,但终于惨淡收场,反给满清打出个名臣辈出的同治中兴。关于败因,唐先生的分析有两点给我留下深刻印象。一是洪杨定都南京之后,因贪图享乐而未能及时倾全力北伐,以致坐失良机。二是太平军因为强力禁烟开罪英国人,又因为与天主教不合得罪法国人,以致将二强推入清廷怀抱,陷入腹背受敌的困境。

甲午惨败的直接原因,总结起来无外两点。其一,高层腐败,挪用军费导致北洋海军金玉其外,而在关键装备指标(如舰艇航速,舰炮射速)上落后于日本海军。其二,以光绪为首的主战派头脑发热,误判敌我军事实力,没有采取李鸿章“避战斡旋”的正确建议,结果在错误的时间,错误的地点打了一场错误的战争。至于主流文献所记北洋海军将士惧敌畏战,乃至临阵逃脱诸事,唐先生认为未可深信。因这些“史实”的来源均为当时参战英国水兵的回忆录,而据他考证,这些在清军中服役的英国水兵,本就是市井无赖,因不愿受中国将领(如刘步蟾)节制,心怀怨望,因此在回忆录中故意抹黑以泄私愤。日军海军司令伊東祐亨写给水师提督丁汝昌的劝降信中提出的原因则更深一层,说到了因循守旧,不思变通的症结,更专门提到了科举取士这一核心体制的弊端,

至清国而有今日之败者,固非君相一己之罪,盖其墨守常经不谙通变之所由致也。夫取士必由考试,考试必由文艺,于是乎执政之大臣,当道之达宪,必由文艺以相升擢;文艺乃为显荣之阶梯耳,岂足济夫实效?

推动戊戌变法的主角是康有为,而失败的主因也是他,所谓成也萧何,败也萧何。唐先生对康有为的总体评价不高,我用十六字评语来总结他的观感,大抵是狂妄自大,眼高手低,偏激操切,刚愎自用。康有为不仅要求孙中山执“门生礼”,拒绝李鸿章加入他的”强学会“,甚至膨胀到自称“长素” –– 自诩比孔圣人还牛(孔子为“素王”)。唐先生认为康南海对西学所知甚浅自不待言,于汉学虽然功力深厚,但治”今文学“走火入魔,要搞“通经致用,以死硬的教条主义来排斥一切”,造成维新派失道寡助,关键时刻孤立无援。康不是一个好的理论家,偏偏又“強不知以为知,适足以为害”。他更不是一个好的政治家,没有敏锐的政治直觉,不知道社会变革自有其规律,并非总能自上而下,一蹴而就。满清权贵荣禄劝他变法需循序渐进,他的回答居然是“杀几个一品大员,法就可以变了”,其情商之低下,见事之不明,令人瞠目。总而言之,戊戌变法有康有为这么一位“狗头军师”(唐先生语),焉得不败?

对于庚子拳乱的由来,唐先生基本上是各打五十大板:教会借助西方列强的武力在中国享有“横着走”的特权固然是主因,义和团的愚昧无知和滥用暴力也脱不了干系。当然,拳乱升级到八国联军侵华和天文数字的庚子赔款,慈禧老太太的无厘头外交当难辞其咎。她听信谣言,误以为列强要扶植光绪,逼她退位,竟脑子一热对八国同时宣战。她老人家歇斯底里的一场豪赌,自己输个精光被迫跑路不算,还带累全国人民每人赔了一两白银。能保住没再割地求和,大概是多亏了风烛残年的李中堂跑出来收拾残局。唐先生引费正清(John King Fairbank)的博士导师莫尔斯(H.B. Morse) 评价慈禧在拳乱中的表现道,

The empress dowager had long avoided committing herself to any position from which she could not withdraw, but now the states man was lost in the woman.

这句政治明显不正确的俏皮话,似乎是暗示罪魁祸首是女人当政,所以头发长见识短。现在看来,可怕的不是当政人的性别,而是他/她在帝制下至高无上的权力,即使情绪完全失控之时,依然不受任何制约。

最后,辛亥革命虽然推翻了帝制,名义上建立了“天下为公“的共和政体,但“革命尚未成功,同志仍需努力”。福山说现代政体的三要素是国家(state),法制(rule of law)及民主(accountable government)。 从民国初期的情况看,军阀林立,国家孱弱,政令不行,法制自然无从说起,维持民选总统的制度无非是装个幌子罢了。孙中山和袁世凯大概都很快意识到,没有强大稳定的国家做后盾,法制和民主终究是镜花水月,因此后来都在为这个目标努力。唐先生认为袁世凯跟曹操是一类人,“治世之能臣,乱世之枭雄”也。他复辟帝制并非完全受人蛊惑,迷恋帝位,而是想走君主立宪的强国之路。孙中山自民国二年改组国民党之时,思想上即与列宁契合。后来俄国革命成功之后,“面壁九年,乃大彻大悟”, 发愿以俄为师,也是顺理成章,水到渠成。纵观全书,唐先生对国父的“历史局限性”颇多负面评价。其中我完全不了解的,是孙中山1917因反对中国参加一战而获德国政府秘密献金200万银元一事。这笔钱后来成为孙南下广州,组织非常国会和中华民国军政府的经济基础,而孙的割据自立,造就了南北两个实力派政府对立,南辕北辙,事实上进一步削弱了国家。唐先生所以感叹,“国家分裂之局面,迄今未已,孙氏实是始作俑者。”

唐先生秉持唯物史观,认为人类社会历史按照封建-帝制-民治三部曲循序演进。虽然他这个“历史三峡论”对人类社会演化路径和终点的预测跟马克思颇有不同,但本质上,都主张历史发展受客观规律支配,不以人的主观意志为转移。根据这个理论,中国历史上有过两次大的转型。第一次从封建到帝制,始于公元前四世纪中叶的“商鞅变法”,终于公元前二世纪末由汉武帝实施的盐铁专卖,历时约250年。第二次从帝制到民治,始于道光年间的鸦片战争,到今日还未完成,仍处于转型之中。但前后也不过180年,虽没修成正果,但也不足为奇。有了这个理论,中国在晚清70年的坎坷经历可以简单优雅地解释为:既不是文化不行,也不是领导不行,只是天时不行。天时到了,自然瓜熟蒂落,修成正果。 唐先生对历史长河必将人类社会推入民治信心满满,并明确预言中国将于邓小平执政结束40年后(也就是2030年左右)完成第二次转型,到那时,“中国政治社会,甚至整个文化大转型,或可初步完成。--历史走出“三峡”,海晏河清可待。”

唐先生对中华传统文化有强烈认同感,对中国的前途充满期待。至少在这一点上,他和钱穆很相似。他认为 “中西文明之对比,非中不如西也。只是中国文明现代化(即第二次转型)之起步,晚於西方文明三百年而已”。不光传统的“道德标准、价值观念、孔孟之道、四维八德”可以现代化,甚至中医里的“草药、气功和针灸”也可以现代化。只有当“东西两个‘固有文明’,都完成了各自现代化的程序,到那时两个‘现代文明’,截长补短,才能言其高下。”。唐先生热烈地赞美东方政治哲学,认为孔孟之道以伦理学为基础,提倡 “敬天法祖,要统治者知天命、行天理、做天子”,而表现在外交上,则主张和平共处,有教无类,一言以蔽之,“仁义而已矣。何必曰利!”。他也痛斥西方政客,“最大的特点,就是不要脸。绝口不谈仁义,公开的唯利是图。”

至于中国为什么在现代化进程中落后,唐先生的理论是“社会形态固化说”。我的理解,就是第一次大转型做得太完美,超前太多,以至于强国弱民的秦制绵延千年,稳如泰山,最终成为社会生产力发展的桎梏。但是,一旦二次转型完成,则我天朝上国,“ 九合诸侯,一匡天下”,指日可待矣。他写道,

十二亿聪慧勤劳的人民,以和平安定的文明大族崛起世界,在联合国中,挂挂头牌、坐坐庄,这又算什么稀罕呢?。。。。受了几百年的鸟气,現在起来伸伸腰、露露脸,一洗当年满面羞,又是什么侵略性的民族主义呢?舜犹人也。有为者亦若是!何況是一个有极光荣历史的伟大民族呢?

一个学贯中西并在美国生活了半个多世纪的资深历史学家,以70岁的高龄,不光对历史的走向保持乐观主义和理想主义,还对地缘政治做民族感情色彩如此强烈的解读,实在有些费解。晚辈不才,忍不住要借莫尔斯对慈禧的评价开句玩笑,how did a renowned historian commit himself to a position from which he could not easily withdraw?

唐先生在抗战时期(1939-1943)念完大学,目睹积贫积弱的祖国在列强的夹缝中苦苦挣扎,屈辱求存。这种国恨家仇的切肤之痛对一个青年学生的影响,也许不是时间、教育和经历可以轻易抹去的。所以,他的民族主义情结完全可以理解;而他对华夏“文明大族崛起世界”的期待,也正是大陆最新版“中国梦”的民意基础。另外,唐先生写作此书的90年代,正值冷战结束、苏联解体,全世界对民治政体信心爆棚之时。连福山这样本应保持冷静的政治学家,都写出“历史的终结”(End of History)这样的书,宣称民治已为天下大势, 浩浩汤汤。唐先生的二次转型必然成功论,大概也受了这种乐观精神的感召。但是,至少从今天(2023年)看来,他对于2030年实现民治的预言,大概率也会像福山对历史终结的预言一样,成为大众茶余饭后消遣社会“科学”的谈资。当然,按250年完成第一次转型来估算,我们没准需要等到2090年。如果二次转型比第一次难度更大,那就更没谱了。反正,按唐先生的理论,民治是历史发展的必然,大家就踏踏实实地等着吧。我辈能做的,大概只是叮嘱儿孙“中华驶出三峡日,家祭无忘告乃翁”罢了。