All posts by yni957

Unexpected Data Bias in Smartphone Trace Data

This study, a joint study with Professor Amanda Stathopoulos‘ group, explores the impact of shifting device representation bias in smartphone tracking data collected before and after Apple’s 2021 privacy updates on user location tracking. It demonstrates that privacy regulations can significantly and unexpectedly affect the quality of these data, which are crucial for decision making across governmental, corporate, and academic institutions worldwide. The research also corrects misconceptions about representation bias previously speculated in the literature. Overall, the findings equip users of location-based device data with a better understanding of potential pitfalls, enabling them to anticipate the changes caused by the evolving regulatory landscape and to devise appropriate coping strategies. This finding is contrary to popular concerns about the under-representation of low-income populations in LBS data.

Download the preprint here and read the abstract below:


As smartphones become ubiquitous, practitioners look to the data generated by location-tracking services enabled on these devices as a comprehensive, yet low-cost means of studying people’s daily activities. It is now widely accepted that smartphone data traces can serve as a powerful analytical tool for research and policymaking. As the use of these data grows, though, so too do concerns regarding the privacy regulations surrounding location tracking of private citizens. Here, we examine how Apple’s tightened privacy measures, designed to restrict location-tracking on their devices, affect the quality of passively generated trace data. Using a large sample of such data collected in the Chicago metro area, we discover a significant drop in iOS data availability post-privacy regulations. The results also reveal a surprising puzzle: the reduced tracking is not uniform and contradicts customary concerns about the under-representation bias of low-income population. Instead, we find a negative correlation between device representation level and income, as well as population density. These findings reframe the debate over the increasing reliance on smartphone data, highlighting the need to understand evolving issues in tracking, coverage, and representation, which are essential for the validity of research and planning.

Hongyu Zheng’s PhD defense

Hongyu Zheng defended his Ph.D. thesis successfully today.  His thesis committee consists of Karen Smilowitz (first from the left), Jane Lin (second from left) and Hani Mahmassani (first from the right).

Hongyu is my eleventh PhD student and the tenth to complete the PhD thesis defense.  He is joining the Industrial Engineering Department at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville as a tenure-track Assistant Professor in August.

Congratulations, Hongyu!

The Invention of the Jewish People

Growing up in 1980s China, I vividly remember the smokes, bodies, and ruins on the TV screen, accompanied by unfamiliar phrases like “Gaza Strip” (加沙地带)and “West Bank” (约旦河西岸), uttered in Chinese by the hosts of CCTV’s famously boring evening news program.  After I came to the U.S., the similar scenes from Palestine continued to drive news cycles. However, this superficial familiarity did not mean I knew much about the conflict.  Why would I care? The dreadful stories from that land seemed to be getting old, and the people involved appeared hopelessly trapped in the past, while the world moved on.  October 7th and its aftermath changed me. Like many others, I struggled to make sense of the horror of that day, the ensuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the widening chasm that suddenly threatened to engulf America. I have never seen so many protests on college campuses, including the one where I teach. More strikingly, the vast majority of protesters seemed to support the side that, from my understanding, had started the war in the worst way imaginable.

Perhaps they knew something I did not. Maybe my lack of historical knowledge clouded my judgment. In any case, I am determined to understand better. I decided to start with the history of the Jews, the chosen people who have claimed Palestine in the name of God.

“The Invention of the Jewish People,” written by Professor Shlomo Sand, an Israeli historian from the University of Tel Aviv, was the first book I stumbled on.  As usual, the book caught my attention because of its controversies. After finishing the book, however, I realized that the title might be unnecessarily provocative. “The Invention of the Modern Israeli State” would be more accurate, although inventing “the Jewish people” sounds much more exciting.

The book addresses a fundamental question: are Jews a people or a religion? To me, this was the most confusing aspect about the Jewish identity. I had always assumed Jews were simply believers of Judaism. Precisely because of their faith, Jews have been cursed, persecuted, and slaughtered for thousands of years by pagan Romans, Arabic Muslims, European Christians, and Nazis. This ancient hatred was so intense and enduring that an entire vocabulary of words was created to describe it: antisemitism, pogrom, Holocaust, ghettos, and genocide.

However, the mainstream view among Israelis today, according to Sand, is that Jews is also an ethnic group whose ancestry goes back to the apocryphal accounts in the Bible. To understand this claim, let me briefly recount Jewish history in its first millennium.

The legend has it that Abraham is the biological progenitor of all Jews.  God revealed the Truth to Abraham and made a covenant with him, promising that his descendants will become a great nation and be given the land of Canaan, which is today’s Palestine.   Abraham’s descendants were briefly enslaved by Egyptians but led by Moses back to the Hold Land, which they eventually conquered. By 1000 BCE, the Kingdom of Irael emerged, ruled sequentially by three legendary kings, Saul (the grandfather), David (the father) and Soloman (the son).   The kingdom reached its peak under Soloman, who built the First Temple, as well as grand palaces where he famously housed an enormous harem.  The death of Soloman in 930 BCE plunged Israel into a chaos from which it would not fully recover until perhaps modern times.  The nation was divided into Israel in the north and Judah in the south. Israel fell to the Neo-Assyrian Empire in 720 BCE, and Judah subsequently fell to Babylon in 586 BCE.

The conquest of Judah by Babylon was the first traumatic event—it destroyed Jerusalem and the First Temple, sending the first wave of Jews into exile in Babylon and Egypt. Many Jews would later return to the Holy Land and build the Second Temple with the help of the First Persian Empire, which by then had dominated the land between the Mediterranean and India. However, the Jewish nation would continue to exist as a vassal state—controlled first by the Persians and then by the Greeks—until 165 BCE, when the Hasmonean Kingdom gained independence following a revolt against the Greeks.

Then it was the Romans’ turn to ravage Palestine.  The Hasmonean Kingdom fell to Pompey’s legions in 63 BCE. The following two hundred years were marked by tremendous upheaval in Palestine, including the destruction of the Second Temple in 70 CE.  The conflict culminated in Bar Kokhab revolt (132 – 136 CE), during which Romans effectively decimated Judea and wiped out most of its Jewish population.   Jews began to leave Palestine in droves and would not return in great numbers until the 20th century.  Over the next two thousand years, the Jewish diaspora would spread out across the world, sometimes on their terms, but more often driven by relentless persecutions.

Crucially, the claim that Jews are an ethnic group implies that, no matter where they live now and how they have migrated through the ages, Jews have managed to maintain the purity of their ethnicity. The Jewish diaspora is seen as a nation in exile, unfairly deprived of its land promised by God, and thus has the right to return to it.  As Sand put it,

“National mythology determined that the Jews—banished, deported or fugitive emigrants—were driven into a long and dolorous exile, causing them to wander over lands and seas to the far corners of the earth until the advent of Zionism prompted them to turn around and return en masse to their orphaned homeland. This homeland had never belonged to the Arab conquerors, hence the claim of the people without a land to the land without a people.”

This image of a Jewish nation in exile, however, was a modern invention that only began to take shape in the second half of the 19th century.  According to Sand, up to that point, Jews still primarily identified themselves through their shared religion rather than a common ethnic lineage.   Yet, Bible would soon be “transferred from the shelf of theological tracts to the history section”, becoming an ethnic marker that indicates “a common origin for individuals of very different backgrounds and secular cultures yet all still hated for their religion”.  Armed with the Holy Book, now interpreted as a historical document, Jewish intellectuals in Germany, such as Heinrich Graetz and Heinrich von Treitschke, began to frame the history of Judaism “as the history of a nation that had been a kingdom, became a wandering people and ultimately turned around and went back to its birthplace”.

Sand’s theory is built upon three pillars.

First, Sand maintains that there was never a mass forced deportation of Jews from their homeland after the fall of the kingdom.  Instead, their emigration took place gradually over several centuries, due largely to the expropriation of Jewish land, first by Emperor Hadrian (one of the “Five Good Emperors” of Rome) following the Bar Kokhab revolt, and then by the new conquerors under the banner of Muhammad in the seventh century.  Moreover, Judaism teaches that the exile from the Holy Land serves as a form of redemption, and the return must await the End of Days, when the Messiah will arrive to resurrect the dead and offer salvation. Therefore, there was no “voluntary return” either, for that would be considered an attempt to “hasten the end and rebel against God’s spirit”.   As a result, Jews began migrating to Palestine in significant numbers, as Sand notes, “only when the American borders closed in the 1920s, and again after the horrendous Nazi massacres”.

Second, Sand argues that Judaism has not always been an exclusive religion of a chosen people. On the contrary, ancient Judaism was “as keen to propagate itself as Christianity and Islam would be in the future.” In fact, without significant proselytizing efforts that lasted more than 300 years, starting from the period of the Hasmonean Kingdom, the Jewish population could not have reached its current scale. The later exclusivity was more or less forced upon Judaism by Christianity’s more successful marketing strategy, as well as the edicts of Christianized Roman emperors, which forbade, among other things, the circumcision of males who were not born Jews, including slaves. Of course, this early period of mass conversion to Judaism –– whose memory has been deliberately eradicated by Zionists, according to Sand –– directly contradicts the notion of a pure ethnic lineage tracing back to Abraham and his sons.

The third and perhaps most controversial pillar is the so-called Khazar Hypothesis. According to this theory, a large part of Ashkenazi Jews—who lived mostly in Central and Eastern Europe before World War II, with a great many perishing in the death camps constructed by Hitler—were not migrants from Western Europe, especially Germany, but rather descendants of the Khazars,  a Turkic people who established a powerful empire in the region between the Caspian and Black Seas during the 7th to 10th centuries.  The existence of a Khazar Kingdom that converted to Judaism sometime between the 8th and 9th centuries has been accepted by many.  For example, another book I read recently, “A Short History of the Jewish People,” corroborates this. However, there seems to be no consensus on what happened to the Jews living in that kingdom after it was conquered by the Mongols.  Here is what Sand writes:

“The Mongols did not understand the needs of land cultivation in the vast territories they captured, and did not sufficiently care for the farming needs of the subjugated populations. During the conquest, the irrigation systems that branched from the wide rivers—systems that had sustained the cultivation of rice and vineyards—were demolished, causing the flight of masses of people and depopulating the prairies for hundreds of years. Among the emigrants were many Jewish Khazars who, together with their neighbors, advanced into the western Ukraine and hence to Polish and Lithuanian territories”.

To be sure, Sand lacks any substantial archaeological evidence to support his conjecture about a mass westward migration of Jewish Khazars. In fact, many scholars even doubt that a mass conversion of the Khazars to Judaism ever took place. However, he is right to ask why an interesting and plausible historical theory has been vilified in Israel as heretical, scandalous, disgraceful, and anti-Semitic since 1970s.

Whether or not Sand has all the facts correct—his book has faced pushback from fellow historians—his debunking of the modern concept of the “Jewish People” appears well-reasoned and persuasive, at least to a layman like me. The question is, why did Sand take it upon himself to debunk his own people? As a historian, he fully understood that the reconstruction of Jewish identity was part of the European nationalist movements of the time.

Nationalists have always looked to a glorified past to validate their distinct historical existence.

The Nazis imagined a mythical Germanic past where Aryans were portrayed as a superior, pure race destined to lead the world.

The Meiji Restoration in Japan revived Japan’s first emperor, Jimmu—who was purportedly a descendant of the sun goddess Amaterasu—to affirm the existence of a divine and unbroken imperial line.

As a kid, I was taught that all Chinese are 炎黄子孙, i.e., the direct descendants of the Yan Emperor (炎帝) and the Yellow Emperor (黄帝), who are said to have ruled China around 2700-2600 BCE. While I always understood these legends were to be taken with a grain of salt, I never doubted for a moment—until after living in the U.S. for some years—that the Chinese are an ethnic group with lineage tracing back to a glorious ancient people led by those legendary figures. Nor did I question the notion that the Chinese have a “sacred and inviolable right” to every inch of the “Chinese land”, including Tibet, Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Taiwan, even though these provinces were relatively recent conquests by the Manchurian, a nomadic people disparaged as foreign invaders as recently as in the early 1900s.

Jewish nationalists were no different: they found their narrative in Moses’  commandments  and Solomon’s mighty kingdom, despite the lack of evidence to prove they ever existed.

As Karl Deutsch quipped,

“A Nation … is a group of persons united by a common error about their ancestry and a common dislike of their neighbors.”

If deceptive self-aggrandizement is a standard practice among nation-states, why only calling BS on Jews?

Sand explains his rationale toward the end of the book. He argues that the Jewish identity, invented to justify and bolster the young state of Israel, is at odds with democracy, which requires that all people residing in a country be its sovereign. Since Israel is legally defined as a Jewish state, non-Jews living in the country are treated as undesirable aliens and are, to various degrees, segregated, excluded, and discriminated against. As a result, Israel remains an incomplete democracy or a low-grade democracy. In Sand’s view, this status quo is not only less than ideal but ultimately unsustainable, since

the myth of the Jewish ethnos as a self-isolating historical body that always barred, and must therefore go on barring, outsiders from joining it is harmful to the State of Israel, and may cause it to disintegrate from within.

Therefore, Sand calls for the “creation of a democratic binational state between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River” as the ideal solution to the century-long Israel-Palestine conflict.   Be Ideal as it may, Sand’s one-state solution is a non-starter for either side of the conflict nowadays.  Indeed, even he concedes that such a solution, which would likely condemn Jewish Israelis to a permanent minority status in their own state, might be asking too much.   Given their historical experiences over the past two thousand years, it is understandable that Jews are wary of being a minority, especially in a country where the majority adheres to a different faith and may consider itself permanently at war with non-believers and apostates. That leaves us with the two-state solution, which remains viable but barely so.

In all likelihood, the endless cycles of violence and truce will continue, as Israelis and Palestinians remain locked in a perpetual life-and-death struggle over a piece of real estate that they could have shared in peace and prosperity. Sand mentioned that many Palestinians may, in fact, be descendants of Jews who voluntarily converted to Islam after the Arab conquest. If that is true, I cannot think of a more poignant example of the perverse power of religion, which has turned the same people against each other in such a tragic and horrific manner.

 

Marco Nie, Wilmette, IL

Theory of Moral Sentiments

A Theory of Moral Sentiments is Adam Smith’s first book. Compared to Wealth of Nations, his magnum opus, this book was less well-known.  Steve Dubner discussed it extensively in a Freakonomics series, which argued that Smith has been misread by modern economists like Milton Friedman, and that the real Adam Smith was in fact an “affable moral philosopher”, rather than “the patron saint of cutthroat capitalism”. The podcast piqued my interest in Adam Smith and his theory of moral sentiments. The book was not an easy read for me, as it took some time to adjust to the 18th-century writing style.   However, I think the time was well spent.

Central to Smith’s theory is the proposition that the perception of right and wrong comes from sense and feeling rather than reason.  Human happiness, according to Smith, chiefly “arises from the consciousness of being beloved”.  Because we desire to be loved by our brethren— taken to mean relatives, friends, neighbors, and countrymen—we seek their approval and avoid their disapprobation. It is through this pursuit of love and happiness humans acquire sympathy, the ability to share and approve the feelings or interests of another person.  However, to truly sympathize with another’s feelings—to empathize with them (although Smith never used this term)—we must first overcome our own selfishness.

To make this crucial point, Smith proposes a thought experiment, which imagines how “a man of humanity in Europe” would react to the news that a huge earthquake has suddenly destroyed China and all its people. He would, Smith wrote,

“express very strongly his sorrow for the misfortune of that unhappy people, he would make many melancholy reflections upon the precariousness of human life, and the vanity of all the labours of man, which could thus be annihilated in a moment. He would too, perhaps, if he was a man of speculation, enter into many reasonings concerning the effects which this disaster might produce upon the commerce of Europe, and the trade and business of the world in general.”

However, after “all this fine philosophy was over”, the man would return to his regular life as if nothing had happened. Indeed, an accident of trivial scale—compared to that catastrophe in China—befallen on him, say the loss of a little finger, would cause him to lose more sleep than what he would over “the destruction of that immense multitude”. If this is so, Smith asks, would this person be willing to sacrifice the lives of all those Chinese to prevent that “paltry misfortune to himself”?   Smith claims humankind has never produced a villain that could be capable of entertaining such a horrific thought. On this point I disagree with him, though his faith in humanity is understandable. After all, Smith has never witnessed the world wars, heard of Holocaust, or met the infamous dictators of the 20th century.

Smith claims what prevents most people from placing their own interests above the greater interests of others is an impartial spectator that grows and resides within them.  The impartial spectator is “the great judge and arbiter of our conduct”, who teaches us that

“we are but one of the multitude, in no respect better than any other in it; and that when we prefer ourselves so shamefully and so blindly to others, we become the proper objects of resentment, abhorrence, and execration. It is from him only that we learn the real littleness of ourselves, and of whatever relates to ourselves, and the natural misrepresentations of self-love”.

Thus, to become a moral person is to forge and train this impartial spectator, and to be guided by him.  There is a subtle but crucial difference between a moral person and a virtuous one: the former merely follows the impartial spectator’s rules, whereas the latter adopts and embodies his moral sentiments. In some sense, the virtuous person becomes a proxy of the spectator, unified with him in both spirit and conduct, thereby entering a state of spiritual freedom, at which the bounds of moral constraints are no longer felt.

Impartiality is central to many theories of morality. For example, John Rawls’ “veil of ignorance” serves as an instrument of impartiality in his theory of justice. Smith’s impartial spectator also resembles what a Confucianist would call “inner sage” (内圣), or the “innate moral knowledge” (良知) in Wang Yangming’s Theory of Mind (心学).  The unifying state achieved by a virtuous person, I believe, is “知行合一” in the Theory of Mind, and the process through which to arrive at that state is called “致良知”.  Like Smith, Wang also emphasizes sympathy as the approach to morality.  In Instruction for Practical Living (传习录), he writes,

“世之君子惟务致其良知,则自能公是非,同好恶,视人犹己,视国犹家,而以天地万物为一体。”

Thus, with the help of the impartial spectator (良知), the virtuous person (君子) can be just (公是非) and have empathy (同好恶,视人犹己).

Smith believes moral norms first emerge to forbid actions that inflict pains on a person, such as endangering their life and body, depriving their possessions and property, and violating their rights to basic liberty.  This is because humans are disposed to sympathize with sorrow more strongly than with joy.  Moral norms are extremely important, as they form the laws of justice, without which human society cannot survive.  Yet, the sense of justice only enables people to behave with minimum propriety and decency.  To Smith, it is a mere “negative virtue” that does no real positive good.

Throughout much of the book, Smith explains the transition from adhering to basic moral norms to cultivating positive virtues. The mechanism is still sympathizing, and the secret is to overcome the less desirable aspects of human nature.

What makes us jealous of the success or good fortune of another person?  Again, the reason is that humans are generally more focused on avoiding pain than seeking happiness. As a result, it is more difficult for us to will the good of our brethren—i.e., to truly love them—than to avoid harm to their person and property.  The sentiment of envy is strongest when the person is regarded as an upstart.  As Smith notes,

“The man who, by some sudden revolution of fortune, is lifted up all at once into a condition of life, greatly above what he had formerly lived in, may be assured that the congratulations of his best friends are not all of them perfectly sincere.”

However, thanks to the impartial spectator, we are also ashamed of our own envy, and “often pretend, and sometimes really wish to sympathize with the joy of others”.  A man who fought and won this battle with our sentiment of envy is capable of that magnanimous act of willing the good of our brethren, loving them as much as we love ourselves. He may also learn to maintain prudence and humility no matter what stellar successes he has just achieved and how much he thinks he is entitled to boast about them.  Sympathy reminds him that, by overly displaying joy in his achievements, he could arouse among his brethren envy and jealousy, and the shame and self-pity that come with it.  Therefore, he always “endeavors, as much as he can, to smother his joy, and keep down that elevation of mind with which his new circumstances naturally inspire him.”

Smith was not utilitarian, despite being revered as the father of economics—which is built on the notion of utility-maximizing homo economicus—and invested as a god of capitalism.   As the book makes abundantly clear, Smith did not endorse, much less celebrate, cold-blooded self-interest. His famous “invisible hand” explains why society can work well despite, not because of its members being utterly self-interested.  Surprisingly, he made the same point in this book, which was first published in 1759, seventeen years before the Wealth of Nations. He writes that the rich,

“though they mean only their own conveniency… are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the interest of the society, and afford means to the multiplication of the species.”

If Smith believes that self-interest can be guided toward positive outcomes by the invisible hand, he clearly opposes such consequentialism in matters of morality. He was deeply troubled by the fact that “the world judges by the event, and not by the design”, which he called “the great discouragement of virtue” throughout the ages. Smith conceded that, in the realm of justice, punishment should be proportional to the consequences of our actions, rather than our intentions. However, he forcefully argues that the opposite should apply when assessing our own character and conduct.

In this regard, Smith is nearly a moral idealist. He believes we should strive for “exact propriety and perfection” rather than settle for the lower level “which is commonly attained” by most people. Smith argues that focusing on the inferior standard is what led many historical figures to become arrogant, presumptuous, and extravagantly self-admiring.  Self-admiration may be necessary for their success, as it drives the great men to pursue ventures that a more cautious mind would never consider.  “When crowned with success”, however, this presumption “has often betrayed them into a vanity that approached almost insanity and folly”, and “precipitated them into many rash and sometimes ruinous adventures”.  Somehow, Elon Musk’s face crossed my mind when I read the above passage.

Since to be loved by others generally means to receive their attention and praise, a great deal of human energy has been consumed by the struggle to stand out and be recognized.  Smith refers to this desire for attention and praise as “vanity”.  Although vanity is not inherently a vice, it becomes problematic when it is directed towards the wrong objects. Therefore, writes Smith,

“the great secret of education is to direct vanity to proper objects”.

Because a man sees wealth and power attract attention and submission, he is often compelled to pursue them. Similarly, observing that fame and glory earn respect and praise, he aspires to be famous and honored. Consequently, he mistakenly equates these pursuits with achieving love and happiness. Smith tells us that

“nature has endowed a man, not only with a desire of being approved of, but with a desire of being what ought to be approved of.”

Wealth, power, fame, and glory all signal approval from others, but not necessarily “what ought to be approved of”. To Smith, pursuing praise and pursuing what is praiseworthy are distinctly different. The former often leads us to chase misguided objects of vanity, while the latter inspires a genuine love of virtue.   A virtuous man derives little pleasure from praise where it is not due; instead, he often feels the greatest satisfaction in doing what is praiseworthy, even though “no praise is ever to be bestowed upon it”. Thus, “to be that thing which deserves approbation” is “an object of the highest” to him. If succeeded in this endeavor, he no longer needs approval from others.  He would become assured of “the perfect propriety of every part of his own conduct” and be content with his self-approbation, which, according to Smith, is virtue itself, the only thing which he can and should care about.

Smith’s emphasis on praise-worthiness rather than praise, and on self-approbation rather than approval by others, appears to be rooted in Stoicism.  Smith writes that the Stoics believes

 “human life…ought to be regarded but as a mere two-penny stake. …Our only anxious concern ought to be, not about the stake, but about the proper method of playing. If we placed our happiness in winning the stake, we placed it in what depended upon causes beyond our power, and out of our direction. We necessarily exposed ourselves to perpetual fear and uneasiness, and frequently to grievous and mortifying disappointments. If we placed it in playing well, in playing fairly, in playing wisely and skillfully; in the propriety of our own conduct in short; we placed it in what, by proper discipline, education, and attention, might be altogether in our own power, and under our own direction. Our happiness was perfectly secure, and beyond the reach of fortune.”

In a nutshell, to shield our happiness from the whims of fortune, we should remain as indifferent as possible to praise, recognition, and all the superficial allurements of vanity. This philosophy aligns with a precept I learned many years ago from a Chinese author: 但行好事,莫问前程 (Focus on doing the right thing, rather than on achieving the perfect outcome).  It also echoes my favorite quote from Daniel McFadden’s Nobel Prize autobiography (the emphasis is mine):

“My parents taught me that to lead a virtuous life, I should be modest, take my satisfaction from work done well, and avoid being drawn into competition for status and rewards.”

This idea is precisely what I have been trying to tell any of my doctoral students who would listen: To truly enjoy academia, you must find joy in the research itself, independent of any external rewards it might bring, whether that’s funding, awards, or even the opportunity to change the world.

Marco Nie

April 14, 2024, Evanston, IL.

亲测Tesla FSD 12

过去十天一直在试用特斯拉(车型M3 2023)刚刚上线的自动驾驶FSD V12,总结一下自己的观察和体验。

首先说Situational awareness (情景意识)。这方面感觉很震撼,从车载电脑提供的图像看,特斯拉可以轻松识别人肉眼能看到的跟驾驶相关的几乎所有空间对象,并实时同步生成画面,包括车(能区分轿车,卡车,公共汽车,等等),行人,骑行者,红绿灯,停车牌(stop sign),路上的标识线(双黄线,车道线,停车线,路边分隔线,转弯标志,等等),以及路旁的限速标志。比较晚上和白天的识别能力,没发现明显的差异。我几次在晚上开过完全没有路灯的街区,都是没有分隔线,两边都能停车的小路。特斯拉能分辨路边停车,包括车库边driveway上停的车,能看到行人,能给出安全的行车轨迹。

其次说驾驶部分。我试过的所有路线都是路况复杂的城市道路,包括从家开到上班的地方(大约5英里),从H-Mart开回家(大约7英里),从家开到女儿跳舞的Studio (大约1.5英里)。我感觉绝大部分情况特斯拉都能像谨慎的人类司机一样驾驶。举几个例子。其一,识别占用车道的三位骑行人,并找到安全避让的行车轨迹。其二,在路口进入右转车道时,正好路边加油站有车倒入同一车道,特斯拉选择减速,让该车并入车道。其三,在路边有停车的小路上,特斯拉能识别被占用后的车道不够两车通行, 在对面来车的情形下提前停车避让。因此,现在的特斯拉,理论上基本能接管从开出停车场(库)到开进停车场(库)之间的所有驾驶任务(也许它也可以开进停车场,但是我的M3好像不知道怎么开上我家的driveway)。

说完成果说问题。到现在为止我觉得FSD12的最大问题是它过于严格遵守限速。当前版本在城市道路上的最大速度好像是道路限速+2。在车流比较大的主路上,这个限制不明显。但有些空旷路段上,限速+2感觉过慢,后面的车很不耐烦,连闺女坐在旁边都觉得尴尬。在现阶段特斯拉有这个规定,我觉得从免责、安全的角度,完全可以理解;但它确实影响体验。

对象识别上我发现有两个小bug: 一个是不太能识别小朋友和宠物(可能是因为比较矮?),另一个是认不出火车(昨天路过地铁交叉口,它生生把路过的火车显示成了一辆加长轿车)。

对突发情况处理上,只遇到一次小惊险。当时的情况是特斯拉以较慢的车速驶入一个比较拥堵的路口,同时信号灯从绿转黄。一般人类司机遇到这种情况,应该是正常加速通过。但特斯拉的首先反应是选择减速,并最终完全停车,这时车身的前三分之一已经过线,而信号灯仍是黄灯。我正准备接管的时候,特斯拉不知道怎么忽然想通了,又选择重新加速通过,但在红灯亮起之前,未能完全离开路口。这个操作当然是个安全隐患。如果后面的司机看到黄灯准备按一般默认的规则加速通过,很容易造成追尾事故。不过平心而论, 没有经验的人类司机也可能犯类似的错误,希望特斯拉能从这个事件学到经验教训,下不为例。

之前很长一段时间,我对人类在近期实现无人驾驶比较悲观,但是FSD v12似乎又让人看到了希望。FSD v12还不能实现完全无人驾驶,但已经达到甚至超过了LV4的水平(LV4指在特定条件下,车辆能够在没有人为干预的情况下完成所有驾驶任务并监控驾驶环境)。而且,它是在没有任何基础设施支持(没有高清地图,没有智能道路,没有车联网)的前提下实现这一突破的。

最后,FSD v12值得花200美金一个月订购吗?我觉得这要看你每天花多少时间开车,以及在多大程度上可以利用那些坐在车里的时间干其他事情。现阶段,一个对自己和他人负责任的司机,是没办法真的完全从驾驶环境中解放出来的。特斯拉也不允许,它要求驾驶员不断轻微地转动方向盘以保证可以随时被接管。 对我这样通勤单向15分钟的人来说,FSD v12无论如何是值不回票价的。

Chip War

Chris Miller masterfully told the story of the spectacular rise of the semiconductor industry (the “chip”) and its ever-growing entanglement with geopolitics (the “war”).  It’s a fascinating narrative, filled with ups and downs, twists and turns, heroes and villains, and a cast of victors and losers — well worth reading for its own sake .  It is a must read if you want to understand the current U.S.-China relationship and the slow-moving crisis hanging over the Taiwan Strait.  Semiconductors have become central to the U.S-China relationship, with one side aggressively playing catch-up, and the other striving to maintain its waning lead.  Taiwan has the misfortune to be caught in the middle of this seemingly inevitable epic-clash, not so much because it offers a beacon of hope for “the free world”, as because it houses Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the sole fabricator of the world’s most sophisticated chips.

As I read about the legends of semiconductors unfolding in the book, I came to realize my own ignorance about an industry that has profoundly transformed humanity.

I did not know Williman Shockley who, along with two other scientists at Bell Labs, discovered semiconductors and invented transistors. He also started a company called Shockley Semiconductors Laboratory that counted Gordon Moore (yes, that’s the Moore after which Moore’s law is named) and Robert Noyce among its first hires. The pair would rebel against Shockley later and go on to become the giants of the burgeoning industry. They first founded Fairchild Semiconductor that supplied the computing power to land men on the moon in the 1960s, and then Integrated Electronic, or Intel – a household name in today’s tech world.

I had never heard of Texas Instruments (TI) before I read the book.  But among TI’s earlier employees are Jack Kilby, who won a Nobel prize in physics in 2000 for inventing the integrated circuit (集成电路), Jay Lathrop, who created the first photolithograph (光刻) scanner, and Morris Chang, an immigrant from Mainland China and the founder of TSMC.

Nor could I distinguish between memory chips and logic chips, PC chips and smartphone chips, or deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.  What has struck me the most, however, is the incredible difficulty to keep up with Moore’s law, which posits that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. Indeed, the cutting-edge chips have become so complex that TSMC is the only manufacturer in the world capable of fabricating them at scale.  TSMC does this with “ultra-pure silicon wafers and specialized gases from Japan” and machinery that “can etch, deposit, and measure layers of materials a few atoms thick”. Supplied by only five companies, these tools themselves took decades and an astronomical amount of money to develop, and their core technologies are closely guarded trade secrets.  Take the development of the EUV lithography for example. The project was launched in the early 1990s thanks to a $300-million investment from Intel.  However, it wasn’t until nearly 30 years and billions of dollars in spending later that the Dutch manufacturer ASML finally introduced EUV scanners to the market in 2018, at a price of 100 million apiece for an expected lifetime of four years. For a layman like me, it is mind-boggling to read just how the scanner produces enough EUV light needed for fabrication:

The best approach was to shoot a tiny ball of tin measuring thirty-millionths of a meter wide moving through a vacuum at a speed of around two hundred miles per hour. The tin is then struck twice with a laser, the first pulse to warm it up, the second to blast it into a plasma with a temperature around half a million degrees, many times hotter than the surface of the sun. This process of blasting tin is then repeated fifty thousand times per second to produce EUV light in the quantities necessary to fabricate chips.

It does sound like a miracle, as Miller put it, that something this delicate not only works, but “does so reliably enough to produce chips” that can make lots of money.

This sums up the history of chips. What about war?  The book describes three chip wars that took place between the U.S. and her rivals in different eras.

The war with the Soviet Union, fought mostly in the first half of the cold war, was won with relative ease. The USSR treated its semiconductor industry as a weapons program, similar to its treatment of nuclear and space technology.  In hindsight, this strategy was a huge mistake, as the immensely profitable civilian applications of semiconductors turned out to be such a strong driving force for innovations that no level of government spending could hope to rival.  Faced with the lack of progress, the Russians tried to copy the U.S. technology through espionage. Yet, this did not work either.  For one, even the most skilled spies cannot steal all the technical know-how involved in complex production processes. More crucially, the “copycat” mindset inevitably condemned Russians to a perpetual game of catch-up, rather than allowing them to lead the way.

Japan was a much greater threat.  Thanks to favorable technology transfer and trade policies that the U.S. willingly offered in exchange for the Japanese support of America’s global order, Japan’s semiconductor industry evolved from a niche player specializing in consumer electronics in the 1960s and 1970s to a formidable powerhouse in the 1980s. By 1985, Japan had begun to outspend the U.S. in capital investment for semiconductors, and by the end of that decade, it had become the dominant supplier of the world’s Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) chips (90% market share) and lithography equipment (70%). Trade disputes soon ensued.  The skirmish started with the U.S. accusing Japan of espionage, double-dealing, and dumping.  It escalated to the point where the U.S. openly threatened tariffs, ultimately compelling Japan to impose quotas on its exports of DRAM chips to the U.S. in 1986.  This did not help Silicon Valley recover their lost ground, however.  Eventually, nearly all American companies, including Intel, were driven out of the DRAM and lithography markets.

Carried away by their astonishing success, the Japanese began to dream about, in the words of Sony Founder Akio Morita, overcoming the United States economically and becoming “number one in the world”.  The U.S. was understandably frightened by the pent-up nationalism revealed in The Japan That Can Say No—which Morita co-authored—and the gloomy prospect of relying on a foreign country to maintain the most important edge of her military. In response, the U.S. launched a campaign to curtail Japan’s dominance in chip-making industry.  The core strategy involves mobilizing South Korea (Samsung), Taiwan (TSMC), and to a lesser extent, Mainland China, to erode Japan’s competitive advantages by enabling cut-throat competition against her companies.  It worked like magic.  In 1998 Japan’s share in the DRAM market fell to 20% from a near monopoly less than a decade ago, while South Korea dethroned Japan to become the largest producer of memory chips. Not only did Japanese firms suffer tremendous share loss in the DRAM market, but they also missed the emerging opportunities in the nascent PC market.  In what Miller dubbed as one of the greatest comebacks in industry history, Intel, under Andy Grove’s leadership, reinvented itself as the king of microprocessors for PCs.  For what seemed like an eternity in this fast-paced industry, Intel was literally the icon of the PC industry, as the blue trademark of its processors emerged as the most recognizable feature on most PC sold globally. Indeed, I remember the first PC I ever owned— which my five college roommates and I purchased in 1995 using pooled funds—simply as a 486, because it was powered by Intel’s 486 microprocessor.  According to Miller, that very computer chip was the first ever with over a million transistors!

This brings me to the latest, still on-going chip war with China.  On the surface, the plot of the Chinese edition bears resemblance to that of Japan: the wary incumbent hegemon, spooked by the rapid ascent of an upstart, is compelled into massive counteractions to neutralize the threat, real or imagined.   However, unlike Japan, China has never really overtaken the U.S. in any high-end technology areas of the semiconductor industry.  Not even close.  According to Miller, toward the end of the 2010s, China had less than 1% of the global chip design software tool market, about 2% of core intellectual property related to “the building blocks of transistor patterns”, 4% of silicon wafers, 1% of fabrication machinery, 5% of chip design, and 7% of fabrication concentrated in the non-cutting-edge chips.  If that is the case, has the U.S. overreacted with her heavy-handed sanctions and embargo against China’s tech sector?

Regarding this, Miller’s insights on the crackdown of Huawei were particularly enlightening. He acknowledged that the charges against Huawei, which included theft of intellectual property, ties with the Chinese military, and violation of U.S. sanctions on Iran, were “ultimately a sideshow” – basically a euphemism for made-up excuses.  The real issue was, Miller wrote,

That a company in the People’s Republic of China had marched up the technology ladder… Its annual R&D spending now rivaled American tech giants…, it was the most successful exporter [of all Chinese tech companies], giving it detailed knowledge of foreign markets. It not only produced hardware for cell towers, [but] it also designed cutting-edge smartphone chips. It had become TSMC’s second biggest customer, behind only Apple.

Therefore, the real question was: “Could the United States let a Chinese company like this succeed?” That is a rhetorical question in case you did not catch the drift. But why?

I can think of several reasons.  

First, unlike Japan, China was not a liberal democracy.  Judged by what was going on in the country since the early 2010s, China absolutely has no interest in becoming one anytime soon. To make things worse, under the current leader, China has repeatedly asserted that perhaps her system, rather than America’s, should be the model that the rest of the world admires, envies, and emulates.  Even when Morita lectured Americans about the superiority of the Japan system, it was seen in Washington as a serious provocation – and he wasn’t even talking about authoritarianism.

Second, unlike Japan, China has never pledged allegiance to the America-led world order.  In fact, in the past decade, China has decisively shifted from biding her time as a halfhearted participant of that order to openly flirting with the idea of challenging it, economically, technologically, and if necessary, militarily.

Third, China has increasingly embraced nationalism as a rallying cry for its people to coalesce around the current regime. However, the inherent logic of this political agenda requires the “unification” of the motherland, regardless of the cost. Whether this stance is a concrete national policy or merely a slogan to appease the little pinks on the internet remains to be seen. Yet it does place China on a collision course with Taiwan and the U.S.  When push comes to shove, the U.S. could find herself in a treacherous standoff with what she now regards as a “peer competitor”. The stakes are incredibly high. Retreating from the American commitment to Taiwan’s security would spell the end of the current global order, potentially plunging the world into chaos.   More importantly, losing Taiwan could hand China a golden opportunity to erode the America’s technological supremacy, which has been a cornerstone of her national security since at least World War II.

As of this writing, China has been denied access not only to high-end chip-making technology but also to the high-end chips themselves. Lacking essential tools (e.g., EUV scanners) and raw materials (e.g., pure silicon wafers), China’s semiconductor industry, as well as her tech sector in general,  is likely to fall behind. Indeed, it has already missed out on the latest gold rush in AI, particularly the triumph of large language models, partly because her access to computing power (GPUs) was severely restricted by sanctions.

Could China break this “neck-strangling” (卡脖子) situation entirely through its own initiatives? Before reading this book, I thought there must be a way, if the nation threw its entire weight behind the challenge.  I am much more pessimistic now. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from the book, it’s that the creation of cutting-edge chips can no longer be achieved within the borders of a single country, not even the U.S. Moreover, the pursuit of technological innovations as a nationalistic project may not be a sound strategy for long-term success, as demonstrated by the failure of the USSR.

Could the chip war have been averted had China chosen a different path in the early 2010s?  What impact will the current conflict have on the “China Dream” and the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese? No one knows the answer.  One can only hope that the war remains confined to the realm of chips and continues to be fought by scientists and engineers with their computers, rather than soldiers with guns and missiles.

 

Marco Nie

Wilmette, IL

3/3/2024

GPT the artist

这两天突然发现ChatGPT 4读古诗作画的能力不仅好玩,而且惊艳。今天做了实验,请朋友们根据GPT画的图猜它画的是哪句古诗。感谢参加实验的朋友们,结果分享如下。

第一句诗,我给的提示是:

根据下面的诗作一副画: 鸟宿池边树,僧敲月下门。

这一句出自唐朝诗人贾岛的《题李凝幽居

闲居少邻并,草径入荒园。
鸟宿池边树,僧敲月下门。
过桥分野色,移石动云根。
暂去还来此,幽期不负言。

GPT 第一次画出来的图是这样的。

我觉得表现得很精准,意境也到位,一株斜树,半湾静水,僧人在月下敲门,声音虽不大,但依旧惊起了一群宿鸟。

测试结果,绝大多数人(受过良好教育的大陆70/80后)一看图几乎都能猜中GPT画的是哪句诗。

第二句,我给的提示是:

根据下面的诗作一副画: 曲径通幽处,禅房花木深

这一句出自唐朝诗人常建的《题破山寺后禅院

清晨入古寺,初日照高林。
曲径通幽处,禅房花木深。
山光悦鸟性,潭影空人心。
万籁此俱寂,惟余钟磬音。

GPT 第一次画出来的图是这样的。

这个不太满意,为了表现“花木深”明显用力过猛了,而且为了画禅房居然直接搞了个菩萨在屋子里。。。于是我点拨了它一句

花太多了,禅房画出寺庙的一角就可以。

这一次出的图还不错,禅房隐藏在树后面,降低了整个色调,幽深的小路有点诗里的禅意了。测试结果,大多数受众能猜对。有人猜“因过竹院逢僧话,偷得浮生半日闲”,好像也可以,不过后面这句“偷得浮生”不知道GPT会怎么来表现。下次再试。

第三句我诚心要出个歪题,选的是一句很生僻的诗。提示如下

再画一幅:征马不前人不语,金州城外立斜阳

这首诗出自日俄战争中日军指挥官乃木希典攻克辽宁金州后所作,全诗为:

山月草木转荒凉,十里腥风新战场。征马不前人不语,金州城外立斜阳

有人会问打了大胜仗的将军为啥会写出格调如此低沉的诗?。不该都是“提兵百万西湖上,立马吴山第一峰”,或者“宜将剩勇追穷寇,不可沽名学霸王”这种调调吗。话说日军虽胜,但伤亡惨重,乃木因此心情沉重,非常自责,准备向天皇请罪。当然更重要的原因也许是他自己两个儿子都在日俄战争中命丧沙场(大儿子就死在金州)。在完全不了解故事背景的情形下,就算是对旧诗有鉴赏力的人,也未必能充分理解这两句诗的意境。但是这两句诗有个好处,它很有画面感,给人很大的想象空间。

GPT是这么来解读这两句诗的。Here is the painting based on the poem, depicting a scene outside the city of Jinzhou with a motionless warhorse and a silent figure standing in the light of a slanting sun, capturing a moment of stillness and contemplation in the vast landscape.

说实话,当看到GPT第一次出的图时,我真的有点懵,这不就是我脑子里那副模糊不清的图画突然真实呈现在面前了吗:沉默的战马,落寞的身影,死寂的战场,倾斜的战刀,远处是孤城一仞,残阳如血,意境太贴切了。

不出所料,没有一个人猜中(原因当然不言而喻);但大家给出的五花八门答案非常有意思。

大部分人猜是“古道西风瘦马,夕阳西下,断肠人在天涯”,这个答案我觉得应该接近满分;萧索的意境是对的,没有城,但是其他元素都齐了;当然那匹马不够瘦,也是个小问题。

另外一个我认为接近满分的答案是“大漠穷秋塞草腓,孤城落日斗兵稀”(很惭愧诗读得少,不知道出自何处),除了马,画中所有的重要元素都有了;连跟战争的联系都找到了。

有两位猜“竹杖芒鞋轻胜马,谁怕,一蓑烟雨任生平”。这个答案的问题是调子过于明快,跟画面给人的感觉不太切合。但有意思的地方是,我认为那个人手里拿的是军刀,但在别人看来,明明就是竹杖嘛;我看来那个人穿的是军服,戴的是军帽;但换个人就成了蓑衣斗笠啦。可见眼睛看到的东西,其实很多时候都是脑补出来的。

还有三个答案: “鲜衣怒马,仗剑天涯”;“手持绿玉杖,朝别黄鹤楼”,以及“渭城朝雨浥轻尘,。。西出阳关无故人”;虽然没有跟画面完全一致,但是观画者明显是在试图捕捉画面背后那个叫意境的东西;第一个看到了洒脱,第二和第三个看到了别离。

总结一下,中国的诗和画本就是相通的;旧诗给读者的首先都是画面感,然后他们各自根据画面营造意境;而每个人的领悟可能跟自己的阅历、心境、学养都有关。从画到诗的过程其实也差不多。因此,诗就是画,画就是诗,诗中有画,画中有诗。我觉得这是中国旧诗最神奇最美的地方。GPT的好处,是给了我这样艺术能力差、没办法把脑子的画面实化的人一种新的表达方式,虽然还不完美,但已经算是打开了另一扇欣赏美的窗户。

A letter to Henry Ford

As part of her social study homework, my daughter, Jolene,  wrote a letter to Henry Ford, imagining it from the perspective of Greta Thunberg.  I like the letter but thought it did not sound much like Greta.  Then it occurred to me that I could ask ChatGPT to rewrite it in Greta Thunberg’s style .    Intrigued by the idea, Jolene enthusiastically consented to this experiment. She has also given her permission for both the original letter and ChatGPT’s adaptation to be shared here.  I hope you have as much fun as I had reading these!


Jolene’s original letter

Herr Henry Ford,

Isn’t it interesting how one day can change your life, and you wouldn’t know? I remember that day like it was yesterday. I remember sitting down at my desk at school, not knowing that my story was just about to start. The teacher announced that we would be watching a film about the state of our environment. I remember how as it progressed, my feelings grew from curiosity to horror as pictures of endless mountains of garbage floating in the ocean flitted across the screen. I will be the first to admit it: I cried. I remember every vivid detail, though my classmates all forgot the atrocities they just witnessed mere minutes after the film ended, apparently deciding that discussing their weekend plans was more important than the outrageous amounts of garbage and smoke that pollute our planet. It’s a strange feeling, looking back and knowing that this film would be forever engraved in my mind. I’m sure you would feel the same about the assembly line, looking back at when you invented it, when you didn’t know you would revolutionize the automobile forever. I suppose that means I shouldn’t blame you for the polluting smog cars let out into the environment every day. Yet, as I sit here in my room, sun warming the paper I write on, I can hear the cars passing my home, and I can picture the cloud of smoke that lingers behind. Too much has been done to our Earth for me not to take a stand.

I understand that when you were innovating and popularizing the automobile, your intentions must have been good: to make people’s lives easier and better. If that was your goal, then you achieved it. At least, at the time you achieved it. On the surface level, it seemed perfect: more jobs were created that more workers were qualified to do, which made our country’s economy stronger. Cities became less crowded as people moved to neighboring towns to form suburbs since they could drive to work. It bridged a gap between different classes of people as it became a norm that men and women, rich and poor alike drove together on the roads. But at what cost?

In 2024, the global temperature has increased by about 1ºC since 1900, with the majority happening after 1970. As a result, the ocean has warmed as well, causing ice caps to melt and the sea level to rise. A main cause of this is the burning of greenhouse gasses. Only approximately 8% of Americans do not own a car. A glance out the window during a busy time of day will show streets packed with everything from fancy red convertibles to rusty pickup trucks. I have worked to decrease the damage our race causes to the Earth, yet it still rises. People are all for helping to stop climate change until it actually inconveniences them. Few are willing to give up constantly driving their car instead of walking, biking, or using public transportation, or to fly across the world a few less times. While in my mind I realize that not all of this is your fault, my heart protests against it, aching for the state of our world. Neither of us can help it if your life’s work happens to clash against mine.

All of this goes to say that, while I respect how hard you worked to make the automobile what it is today, I will work twice as hard to ensure that the damage is undone. I will not apologize for that.

Greta Thunberg


ChatGPT’s Version

Dear Mr. Henry Ford,

The day everything changed for me was just another day at school, until it wasn’t. We watched a film about our planet’s environmental crisis, and the images of pollution and destruction struck me to the core. It was a moment of awakening — a stark, horrifying realization that we are in the midst of a grave crisis. I remember the despair I felt, a sharp contrast to the indifference of my peers. Such moments define us, much like the day you pioneered the assembly line must have defined you, unknowingly setting off a chain of events that would lead us here.

Your innovation brought mobility and progress, but at a catastrophic environmental cost. We now face a planet warmed by over 1°C since 1900, mainly due to emissions post-1970. The burning of fossil fuels, a legacy of the automotive boom you ignited, has pushed our planet to the brink. Our ice caps are melting, our seas are rising, and our future is at stake.

I understand that the environmental crisis we face today cannot be solely laid at your feet. However, the industry you created has played a pivotal role in this unfolding tragedy. As I witness the relentless march of cars outside my window, each contributing to a cloud of pollution, I am reminded of the urgency of our situation.

Mr. Ford, while your intentions may have been to better the human condition, the reality is that we are now paying a heavy price for this ‘progress.’ I respect your ingenuity, but I cannot overlook the environmental devastation it has wrought. I am committed, more than ever, to fight for a sustainable future, to challenge the status quo, and to reverse the damage we have done to our Earth. This is not just a promise; it is an imperative.

We are at a crossroads, and I will not rest until we choose the path of sustainability, responsibility, and survival. I will advocate, protest, and work harder than ever to ensure a future where technology serves our planet, not destroys it. This is the mission of my generation, and I accept it wholeheartedly.

Yours in determination,
Greta Thunberg

Open-TNM

Finally, this little C++ project that I started more than 20 years ago went open source at Github, mainly thanks to the diligence and passion of Prof. Jun Xie, a former student and now collaborator at Southwest Jiaotong University.  As of now, it contains just one traffic assignment algorithm (the greedy algorithm we developed a few years back), but the plan is to gradually release many more in the coming months.

I began to develop TNM –which stands for Toolkit for Network Modeling– in 2003.  The project is a collection of C++ code I wrote to deal with many different transportation network problems, ranging from origin-destination estimation to microscopic traffic simulation (yes, I had even written a microscopic simulator based on Cellular Automata.   It seems like an extravagant waste of time, with the benefits of hindsight).   In March 2006, when I was wrapping up my PhD research at UC Davis, I wrote a document summarizing the development up to that point, which I have since frequently quoted in my papers that use the code to produce numerical results.  You may check it here.

My development of TNM would continue well into my tenure at Northwestern.  In fact, as late as in 2015, I was still busy putting stuff into TNM.  Over the years I developed a rather flexible and universal GUI based on MFC  that has the ability to accommodate many different types of network problems — at one point I even learned to deal with GIS  functions in my GUI.  I would be lying if I tell you I did not enjoy the thrill of making a machine do what I command….  However, eventually, I realize that I must stop indulging in this hobby as it has become a black-hole swallowing an undue amount of my energy that was in short supply given my increasing seniority and the  responsibilities  that came with it  (I am sure this epiphany came to me a bit too late).

Right around the time I decided it is the time to pass the torch to the next generation, Jun showed up in my lab, first as a visiting PhD student then as a visiting postdoc.   Unlike the vast majority of my other students, he did not mind wresting with the messy C++ code I wrote in  haste.  On the contrary, he seemed to truly enjoyed it.  So, Jun gradually became involved in the development of TNM  and, after  joining Southwest Jiaotong University, has added to the development team his own graduate students.  Without Jun, the publication of TNM on github probably would never have happened.

 

Crusaders

Dan Jones is a great chronicler.  He knows how to turn dry events into vivid stories, which characters to focus on so his narrative always has a humanly anchor point, and when to make witty quips without being seen as overly opinionated.   Some writers have the talent to captivate their audience with no more than the charm of their language – I think Jones is one of them.

“Crusaders” covers nearly four centuries of medieval history, from the end of the eleventh century CE, when Pope Urban began to preach the Holy War against the infidels in the east, to the conquest of Jerusalem by the Ottman empire in 1517.   Officially, crusading met its calamitous end in 1291, when Acre, the last stronghold of the Christian kingdoms in the east, fell to the hands of Mamluks.   However, as a phenomenon, crusading continued until Columbus’s discovery of America––which was “full of things to trade or steal, and teeming with people to subjugate, convert or kill”—convinced Western Christendom that its future “lay to the west, not the east”.

Out from this eventful and bloody chapter of human history stand a few prominent and complicated characters that I think deserve some ink even in a brief book review.

Richard the Lionheart, the legendary king of England who spent most of his adult life in France, was the commander in chief in the Third Crusade.   Rumored to be a gay, Richard was famed for his martial prowess, courage and generosity. He also was a man of letters who loved lyric poetry and music and courted poets of High Middle Ages.  Under Richard’s leadership, crusaders retook Acre and delivered a string of humiliating blows to the army of the mighty sultan Saladin of Ayyubid Dynasty, but ultimately fell short of seizing Jerusalem itself.  The struggle ended with a negotiated truce that placed the coastal towns between Jaffa and Acre under the Christian rule, while allowing Christian pilgrims and merchants to access the Holy City.  Although the settlement helped stabilize the Kingdom of Jerusalem for decades to come, it forever transformed crusading from a religious imperative into an enterprise of colonization.

Like many powerful men of his age, Richard was often reprimanded in history books for being lustful, greedy, and cruel.  I suspect some of Richard’s vices were exaggerated by the clergymen who resented him for being forced to pay for his military adventures.  That said, the extent of Richard’s cruelty is indisputable.  The most notorious episode was the execution of 2600 unarmed and bound prisoners of war at Acre, as a retaliation against Saladin’s failure to fulfill his promise to “return the relic of the True Cross and pay his bounty”.   Be technically legal as it may, noted Jones, this despicable act of cruelty was “excessive even by the standards of the day”.  Little wonder Richard’s name has acquired such an infamy in the Muslim world that it was often invoked by impatient moms to calm their unruly children.

Enrico Dandolo, the doge of Venice, was the hero––or the villain, depending on who you ask––in the Fourth Crusade.  He took the cross at an incredibly advanced age of 95, having gambled his country on a military alliance according to which Venice would equip and supply the Fourth Crusade in exchange for 85,000 silver marks.  When Dandolo realized his airheaded partners could not pay their dues, he decided to save Venice from bankruptcy by what essentially amounted to organized robbery.   His first target was the city of Zara, a possession of King Emeric of Hungary who was not only a pious Chrisitan but also a fellow crusader.  Zara’s sacking infuriated Pope Innocent III as he had explicitly forbidden it.  As a result, all Venetian crusaders were “excommunicated”, i.e., officially expelled from the Catholic Church.  Dandolo couldn’t care less. He soon seized another opportunity that promised even more money, by injecting the crusaders into a conspiracy aimed at dethroning the Byzantine emperor.  There is no space to recall the entire drama – suffice to say that it led to the siege and fall of Constantinople in 1204.  Once again, Dandolo’s allies failed to hold their side of the bargain, so it seemed as if he almost had no choice but to help himself with what was promised to him.  For three days, the crusaders vandalized the richest city in the West.  The estimated total value of the loot amassed during their plundering is believed to be around 900,000 silver marks.  If this figure is accurate, then Venice’s investment in the Fourth Crusade yielded a staggering tenfold return.   Dandolo thus exemplified the notion of prospering by doing God’s bidding – a modern entrepreneur from Silicon Valley would recognize this as the medieval version of “doing well by doing good”.

At the time, many ancient and medieval Roman and Greek works were stolen and sent back to Venice. The most notable were the four bronze horse statues from the Hippodrome, believed to have been crafted in the second or third century CE.    When I visited Venice in the summer of 2023, a replica of these magnificent statues was indeed, as Jones teased, “still proudly displayed at Saint Mark’s Basilica.”  Our Venetian tour guide was careful not to dishonor what is considered a national treasure in her country. The horses, she told us, were “brought back” from Constantinople 800 years ago.

Dandolo died a year after the fall of Constantinople. He was 98 and had been visually impaired for more than three decades.  The crusaders understandably cheered what they had accomplished under the command of the aged and fragile man as a miracle.  To many a Christian, however, the brutal sacking of Constantinople was a dark and scandalous chapter in the history of their faith.   The cruel irony—a mission sanctioned by the Catholic papacy resulting in the destruction of the spiritual capital of the Eastern Orthodoxy—was simply beyond the pale.  Jones summarizes Dandolo’s controversial involvement in the crusade aptly:

“He had bravely defied his physical disability and his decrepitude, and his pragmatic leadership and dauntless personal valor were beyond question. Yet in the end Dandolo had turned his talents to a wholly disreputable end, playing a leading part in a dreadful episode that, even by the cruel standards of the crusading era, thoroughly deserved the epithet leveled against it by Choniatēs: “Outrageous.”

Another fascinating historical figure from this era is the leader of the Sixth Crusade, Frederick II, the emperor of the Holy Roman Empire.   His famed grandfather, Frederick I “Barbarossa”, drowned while attempting to cross a river during the Third Crusade.  About 750 years later, Adolf Hitler, in a seemingly ironic twist, named his ill-fated Russian campaign after the elder Frederick.  However, Frederick II succeeded where his progenitor faltered. Through an agreement reached with the Ayyubid sultan Al-Kamil, he regained control of Jerusalem in 1229, a feat that three costly crusades had failed to accomplish in four decades.  To be sure, Frederick II enjoyed good fortune, as Ayyubids were distracted by potential conflicts with its Muslim brethren in Syrian and Mesopotamia. However, there is no question that the emperor’s intelligence, personality, pollical acumen and breadth of knowledge also played a crucial role. Fredreick II was, in the words of Jones, “a shockingly liberal intellectual and a bluntly pragmatic ruler”.    He spoke six languages, including Arabic and Greek, boasting a reputation as a polymath.

Fredreick was a man with an insatiable curiosity about the natural world that extended far beyond the tenets of Christian Scripture. He loved natural sciences, astrology, logic, rhetoric, medicine, law, philosophy and mathematics…(and) surrounded himself with Latin, Greek, Muslim and Jewish tutors, advisers, poets, scholars and bureaucrats. Well into adulthood, he retained a personal Arab tutor in logic, and he corresponded with Jewish and Arab scholars in southern Spain.

In short, Frederick was a philosopher king in the Platonic ideal, reminiscent of figures like Marcus Aurelius of the Roman Empire and Kangxi of the Qing Dynasty in China.

Paradoxically, the “greatest and least bloody crusading victory” won by Fredreick was met with universal condemnation rather than exaltation among his fellow crusaders.  When the emperor left Acre, it was reported, he was “hated, cursed, and vilified”. Why? Ostensibly, the reason was that his participation in the Six Crusade was technically illegal because he had been excommunicated by the pope for allegedly failing to honor his previous crusading pledge.  However, his quarrels with the papacy ran deep and deteriorated following his triumph in the east.  Eventually the most successful crusader of his time would become himself the target of a crusade officially endorsed by the Catholic church.  Although Fredreick “could be infuriating, overbearing and self-serving”, concluded Jones, it is still difficult to “conceive of a greater perversion of the institutions and language of crusade than for such a war to be preached against” him.

Beneath the veneer of glory surrounding these crusading kings and generals lay unspeakable violence, horrific human suffering, and ferocious atrocities.  After all, as Jones noted, “there was precious little time for thoughts of human rights on either side” of the crusading divide.

When Baldwin II of Kingdom of Jerusalem laid siege to Aleppo in 1124––toward the end of his futile effort to break into the Syria interior—his army reportedly engaged in “elaborate rituals of depravity” against the Muslim residents.  According to Jones, the crusaders

“raided Muslim funeral chapels, took coffins to repurpose as storage chests for their camp, then goaded the citizens with the sight of their dead relatives’ corpses being grotesquely desecrated…Whenever the Franks captured an Aleppan Muslim, they cut off his hands and testicles.”

During the Fifth Crusade, Damietta, the third-largest city in Egypt, endured a siege lasting a year and a half.  Even the battle-hardened crusaders were apparently horrified by what they saw in the once-thriving city. It had transformed into a ‘fetid, disease-ridden graveyard, inhabited by mere skeletons and ghosts.’ The few survivors were overwhelmed, unable to bury the countless corpses that littered the streets, and the stench “was too much for most people to bear”.   Shocked as they might be, the crusaders showed little pity, much less remorse. Soon enough, wrote Jones, “Christian thieves” began to “run around taking what they could” and force starving Muslim children to undergo baptism.

When Jerusalem fell to the raid of a Khwarizmian (花刺子模) mercenary army of Ayyubid sultan in 1244—only 15 years after Fredrick’s diplomatic victory—it was utterly devastated. The Khwarizmians hunted down and slaughtered six thousand Christian civilians trying to flee the abandoned city. Then, on August 23,

the Khwarizmians entered the almost empty city of the Israelites and in front of the Sepulchre of the Lord they disemboweled all the remaining Christians who had sought refuge inside its church. … The marble around Christ’s tomb was either smashed or scavenged and the tombs of all the crusader kings of Jerusalem buried near Calvary were opened and their bones tossed away. Elsewhere other highly revered Christian churches and shrines received the same treatment: the priory at Mount Sion, the tomb of the Virgin Mary in the valley of Jehosophat and the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem were all desecrated.

Ironically, the Khwarizmians were themselves victims at the hands of an even more formidable force. About 25 years earlier, the horde of Genghis Khan had besieged and pillaged Samarkand, the capital of their empire.   In some sense, he was indirectly responsible for the terrible losses of Christians in 1244, as the collapse of the Khwarizmians empire had left its jobless soldiers to scatter around, much like a deadly shock wave sweeping through the Middle East.  The Mongols, of course, did not discriminate between Christians and Muslims.  When they captured Baghdad, arguably “the most civilized of cities” at the time, they killed at least 100,000 Muslims.   Yet, their worst crime against humanity was probably destroying the great city’s House of Wisdom, a library that “contained the largest and most sophisticated collection of books on earth” – so many books were thrown into the Tigris, wrote Jones, “that the water was said to have flowed black with ink.”    

No medieval horror movie would be complete without mentioning the hideous crimes against Jews.  In fact, the First Crusade marked a tragic turn in the fortunes for Jewish diaspora in Western and Central Europe.

In 1096, even before leaving their own country for the First Crusade, French and German crusaders turned on local Jewish communities.  At Mainz, they stormed the residency of archbishop Ruthard where seven hundred Jews sheltered for his protection.  The indiscriminatory slaughtering by this mob was so appalling that many desperate Jews killed each other to avoid execution by the “weapons of the uncircumcised”.  Similar mass murders took place elsewhere.  In Cologne, according to Jones, “young men and women threw themselves into the Rhine and fathers killed their children rather than see them fall into the hands of the enemy”.   This “orgy of anti-Semantic violence”, collectively known as Rhineland massacres, is widely seen as a harbinger for what was coming for Jews in Europe in the next millennium.

About a hundred years later, the fervent zeal ignited by the Third Crusade engulfed the English populace. Months of riots against England’s Jews ensued.  During this period, it was not uncommon to witness mobs chasing and assaulting Jews in the streets, forcing them into coerced baptisms.  The worst incident occurred in York in March 1190, when hundreds of Jews, seeking refuge in the city’s castle, were either killed or forced to commit mass suicides.  The persecution of Jews in England would continue and culminate in 1290, when the country officially expelled its Jewish population and enacted a ban that would last nearly four centuries.

Shortly after I finished reading “Crusaders”, on October 7th, 2023, Hamas militants perpetrated the worst mass murdering of Jews since the Holocaust.  There is no need to recite the details of the crimes.  Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, summed it up well: “depravity in the worst imaginable way”.   Viewing this incident in the context of crusade, however, I felt that I have seen the movie before. The latest version is set on the same stage and has a similar plot, though played by different actors.  In this movie, it was Jews, rather than Christians, who were the infidels that Muslims tried to expel from the land they believed was righteously theirs.  

History has never stopped projecting the conflicts in Palestine through the lens of the Crusades.  When British general Edmund Allenby marched into Jerusalem as a victor in 1917, ending the four-hundred-year control of the Holy City by the Ottoman Turks, he proclaimed, allegedly, that “the wars of the crusades are now complete”.   Whether he said it or not, the forecast was wrong. The British mandate of Palestine would give way to the rebirth of the Jewish state in what many Muslims saw as a continuation of the medieval crusades, only this time Jews and Christians were co-conspirators. Surely that was how Osama Bin Laden saw it. In the ‘Letter to the American People’, now widely circulated thanks to Tik-Tok, he wrote,

Palestine has been under occupation for decades, and none of your presidents talked about it until after September 11. … You should be aware that justice is the strongest army and security offers the best livelihood; you lost it by your own making when you supported the Israelis in occupying our land and killing our brothers in Palestine.

Likewise, President George W. Bush once likened the US response to the 9/11 attack to a crusade, warning the American people that “this crusade, this war on terrorism, is going to take a while”.  

Even the rhetoric sounds eerily similar, and it always invokes some version of a just war, i.e., the “violence that was regrettable but legitimate and even moral, so long as it was undertaken to protect the state and would ultimately serve to produce or restore peace.”  Bin Laden put it more bluntly, “it is a sin to kill a person without proper, justifiable cause, but terminating his killer is a right.”  What remains unsaid and perhaps unknowable, however, is who gets to decide what causes are proper and justifiable, and how far back in history one must trace them.

Hence, the life-and-death struggle for the Holy Land, waged in the name of that One True Faith, has never really ended. And the idea of crusading will perpetuate cycles of violence and plight as long as there are crusaders on Earth.

 

Marco Nie, Northwestern University

December 30, 2023