Nearly every pundit and journalist I heard yesterday were shocked by the no-show of the Red Tsunami they had confidently prophesized.  Today, many of them seemed to have regained confidence in their own political acumen by explaining the failure with a new theory:  obviously (with the benefit of hindsight), the omnipresence of Trump had caused GOP to underperform.  This reminds me how good humans are at inventing theories to explain things – theorizing really seems easy and natural for us.   The tragedy is that we often fool ourselves into believing the ability to explain must also give us the ability to predict. The greater tragedy is many genuinely believe in these predictions and, even worse, are committed to bringing them about.